ATL: EARL - Advisories

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ATL: EARL - Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 02, 2022 9:40 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Earl Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 02 2022

...TROPICAL STORM EARL FORMS EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS, VIRGIN
ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 60.3W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Earl.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 60.3 West. Earl is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early
Sunday. A turn toward the northwest with an additional decrease in
forward speed is expected Sunday through Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Earl is expected to pass near or north of the
northern Leeward Islands on Saturday, and north of the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico Saturday night and Sunday.

Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the
next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
mainly to the north and east of the center.

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 1005 mb
(29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, across the Leeward
Islands, U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
this weekend. Limited flash, urban, and small stream flooding will
be possible. Rapid rises on rivers are also possible in Puerto
Rico.

WIND: Gusty winds, especially in squalls, are possible across the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
through the weekend.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg




Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 02 2022

Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft each flew
missions into the area of low pressure east of the Leeward Islands
this afternoon into this evening, and the data from those flights
indicated that the circulation and center of the low became well
defined today. Deep convection has also persisted with the low,
albeit sheared near and to the east of the center, which means the
system has finally met the criteria of a tropical cyclone.
Flight-level, surface, and dropsonde data from the reconnaissance
flights all indicate that the system is producing
tropical-storm-force winds in the convection well to the east of the
center, and for good measure TAFB provided a Dvorak estimate of
T2.5/35 kt. The low is therefore being designated as Tropical Storm
Earl with maximum winds of 35 kt. The minimum pressure is estimated
to be 1005 mb based on an Air Force dropsonde that measured a
surface pressure of 1007 mb with 23-kt winds.

Earl is moving toward the west-northwest, or 295/12 kt. The track
guidance is in fairly good agreement during the next 3 days, with a
low- to mid-level ridge expected to steer Earl west-northwestward
and then northwestward at decreasing forward speed. The ridge to
the north is forecast to weaken and shift westward around day 3,
which should cause Earl to slow down to less than 5 kt and turn
northward by day 4, and then north-northeastward by day 5 as it
begins to feel the influence of the mid-latitude westerlies to the
north. The biggest outliers on days 4 and 5 are the GFS and HMON,
which show a stronger Earl moving faster toward the northeast. For
now, the NHC official forecast favors a slower scenario on days 4
and 5, closer to the ECMWF, HWRF, HCCA, and TVCN.

Moderate to strong shear is likely to continue affecting Earl for
much of the next 5 days, possibly peaking in 3 to 4 days according
to the SHIPS guidance. Mid-level relative humidity ahead of the
system also remains lower than what is ideal for strengthening, and
as a result, the NHC intensity forecast shows only modest
intensification through the forecast period. This forecast is very
close to the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids.

Tropical-storm-force winds are forecast to remain on the northern
and eastern side of the circulation, and as a result, are not
expected to move across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, or Puerto Rico. However, any southward shift of Earl's
center would increase the risk of tropical-storm-force winds in
those areas.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm Earl is forecast to pass near or just to the
north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico over the weekend. Gusty winds, especially in squalls,
area possible on those islands over the next day or two.

2. Heavy rainfall from Earl is expected to lead to limited flash,
urban, and small stream flooding over the Leeward Islands, U.S. and
British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend. Rapid rises
on rivers are possible in Puerto Rico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 18.4N 60.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 18.9N 62.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 19.5N 63.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 20.2N 65.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 20.9N 66.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 05/1200Z 21.5N 67.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 22.2N 67.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 23.3N 67.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 24.7N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 03, 2022 4:31 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Earl Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 AM AST Sat Sep 03 2022

...EARL CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...SHOULD PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 61.4W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 AM AST Sat Sep 03 2022

Satellite imagery and radar data from Guadeloupe show that Earl
remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with the low-level center
located to the west of the main convective mass. Various satellite
intensity estimates are in the 25-45 kt range and have changed
little since the last advisory. Based on this, the initial
intensity remains 35 kt. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft will
investigate Earl starting near 1000 UTC.

The initial motion is 285/11. The track guidance remains in good
agreement that Earl should move west-northwestward and
northwestward with a decrease in forward speed for the next couple
of days as it is steered by the subtropical ridge. There is little
change in this part of the forecast track from the previous
advisory. After that time, a slower motion toward the north and
eventually north-northeast is expected as a mid- to upper-level
trough develops over the Atlantic to the west and north of Earl.
The guidance envelope for the latter part of the forecast track has
shifted eastward, and while the new forecast track is also nudged
eastward it is west of the consensus models from 60-120 h.

Earl is feeling the effects of moderate westerly shear, and current
indications are this will continue for the next 48 h or so. Thus,
the intensity forecast calls for modest strengthening during this
time. The intensity forecast becomes more uncertain as Earl turns
northward. While some shear is likely to continue, the dynamical
models are in good agreement that the cyclone will strengthen,
possibly due to a favorable interaction to the aforementioned
upper-level trough. However, there is poor agreement between the
models in the details of this interaction. Given that, the
intensity forecast from 72-120 h will show a little more
strengthening than the previous forecast. However, the forecast
intensities are on the low side of the guidance envelope.

Tropical-storm-force winds are forecast to remain on the northern
and eastern side of the circulation, and as a result, are not
expected to move across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, or Puerto Rico. However, any southward shift of Earl's
center would increase the risk of tropical-storm-force winds in
those areas.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical Storm Earl is forecast to pass near or just to the
north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico over the weekend. Gusty winds, especially in squalls,
area possible on those islands over the next day or two.

2. Heavy rainfall from Earl is expected to lead to limited flash,
urban, and small stream flooding impacts over the Leeward Islands,
U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend.
Rapid rises on rivers are possible in Puerto Rico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 18.7N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 19.2N 62.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 19.9N 64.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 20.6N 65.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 21.2N 66.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 21.8N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 22.6N 67.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 24.0N 67.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 25.5N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 03, 2022 10:05 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Earl Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 03 2022

...EARL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 62.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES



Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 03 2022

Earl is a sheared tropical cyclone this morning, as the low-level
center is fully exposed to the west of the convective mass. NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate the vortex remains tilted
due to about 15 kt of deep-layer southwesterly shear over the
cyclone. Recently, a more vigorous burst of convection has developed
closer to the center. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt based
on a blend of flight-level, SFMR, and dropsonde data from the
aircraft. It is noted that the surface pressure near the center has
fallen a couple of millibars since the previous advisory.

The cyclone remains on a west-northwestward heading as it is being
steered by the subtropical ridge. The guidance remains in very good
agreement that Earl will maintain a west-northwestward to
northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed over the next
couple of days. As a weakness develops in the subtropical ridge
early next week, Earl is forecast to turn slowly northward and then
northeastward by days 3-5 as a mid- to upper-level trough develops
over the western Atlantic. Although there is increasing spread in
the track guidance during this period as to how quickly Earl
recurves, there is good overall agreement that the cyclone track
will remain over the open Atlantic waters. The official NHC forecast
has been adjusted slightly to the right of the previous one during
the 36-72 h window, based on similar trends noted in the guidance
consensus aids.

It appears that moderate deep-layer shear will continue to impact
Earl during the next couple of days. Therefore, only modest
strengthening is forecast during this time as the cyclone could
struggle to become vertically aligned and sustain convection near
its center. The intensity forecast is of lower confidence later in
the period once Earl begins turning northward. Although the vertical
shear is expected to persist or even strengthen, the potential for
favorable interaction with the upper trough should allow for
additional strengthening during this period, while the wind field of
the cyclone broadens. Most of the dynamical models support this
strengthening trend, and the latest NHC intensity forecast has been
adjusted upward some during this period. However, there remains
large spread in the intensity guidance at days 3-5, and the NHC
forecast remains on the lower end of the models.

Tropical-storm-force winds are forecast to remain on the northern
and eastern side of the circulation, and as a result, are not
expected to move across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, or Puerto Rico. However, gusty winds in squalls are
possible at these locations over the weekend.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical Storm Earl is forecast to pass near or just to the
north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico over the weekend. Gusty winds, especially in squalls,
area possible on those islands over the next day or two.

2. Heavy rainfall from Earl is expected to lead to limited flash,
urban, and small stream flooding impacts over the Leeward Islands,
U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend.
Rapid rises on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep terrain are
possible in Puerto Rico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 19.0N 62.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 19.5N 63.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 20.3N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 21.0N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 21.8N 66.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 22.7N 66.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 24.0N 66.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 25.3N 65.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 27.0N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 03, 2022 3:44 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Earl Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 PM AST Sat Sep 03 2022

...EARL STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 63.2W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Earl.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 63.2 West. Earl is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower
west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the
next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the north on Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Earl is expected to pass north
of the northern Leeward Islands through this evening, and north of
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, across the Leeward
Islands, U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this
weekend.

Limited flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are
possible. Rapid rises on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep
terrain are also possible, especially across the central interior
region of Puerto Rico.

WIND: Gusty winds, especially in squalls, are possible across the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
through Sunday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 PM AST Sat Sep 03 2022

Earl has strengthened this afternoon. Satellite data indicate the
previously exposed low-level center of the cyclone has been drawn
underneath an area of deep convection, with cloud top temperatures
colder than -70C. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft that
recently investigated the storm reported max flight-level (925 mb)
winds of 56 kt. This would support surface winds between 40 and 45
kt using a standard reduction factor. Based on these data, the
cyclone's improved satellite structure, and falling surface
pressures throughout the day, the initial intensity of Earl is
raised to 45 kt for this advisory.

The cyclone has strengthened some today despite facing moderate
deep-layer southwesterly shear. The shear is forecast to persist or
even increase during the next couple of days, so some fluctuation in
intensity is possible if the deep convection gets stripped away and
the center becomes exposed again. But, sea-surface temperatures
greater than 29C should continue to support convective development,
and the overall trend in the latest intensity guidance favors at
least slow strengthening into early next week. Then, the models
suggest that favorable interaction with an upper-level trough over
the warm waters of the western Atlantic will promote additional
strengthening, along with a broadening of the wind field. The latest
NHC intensity forecast has been raised closer to the HCCA and IVCN
consensus aids, and it now brings Earl up to hurricane strength at
days 4-5.

The initial motion of Earl is west-northwestward, or 290/9 kt. The
general forecast track reasoning has not changed. Earl is expected
to slow down as it moves west-northwestward to northwestward over
the next couple of days. A weakness in the subtropical ridge should
allow the cyclone to gradually turn northward early next week, then
move northeastward as it becomes steered by a mid- to upper-level
trough over the western Atlantic. The official NHC forecast track is
very similar to the previous forecast and lies slightly to the left
of the HCCA and TVCA aids.

Tropical-storm-force winds are still forecast to remain on the
northern and eastern side of the circulation, and are not expected
to move across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, or
Puerto Rico. However, gusty winds in squalls are possible at these
locations through Sunday.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Earl is expected to lead to limited flash,
urban, and small stream flooding impacts over the Leeward Islands,
U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend. Rapid
rises on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep terrain are possible
in Puerto Rico.

2. Earl is forecast to pass to the north of the the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico tonight and Sunday. Gusty winds, especially in
squalls, area possible on those islands through Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 19.3N 63.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 19.7N 64.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 20.5N 65.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 21.3N 66.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 22.2N 66.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 23.0N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 24.1N 66.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 25.6N 65.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 27.7N 63.7W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 03, 2022 9:38 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Earl Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 03 2022

...HEAVY RAINS FROM EARL COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING IMPACTS IN
PUERTO RICO, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
THROUGH SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 64.2W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM NE OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES



Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 03 2022

There are no indications that Earl has strengthened further than it
did this afternoon. The low-level center is a little difficult to
locate since it's obscured by high-level cirrus clouds, but it
appears to have moved out ahead of the deep convection again. The
initial intensity remains 45 kt, and this fits a blend of the
latest Dvorak estimates of T3.5 and T2.5 from TAFB and SAB,
respectively.

Earl continues to move west-northwestward, or 285/9 kt, to the south
of a low- to mid-level ridge. However, a break is developing in the
ridge over the western Atlantic, which should allow Earl to turn
northwestward on Sunday, followed by a recurvature toward the north
and northeast Tuesday through Thursday. Although the track models
agree on this scenario, the biggest differences among them is the
along-track component, or how much Earl accelerates toward the north
and northeast on days 3 through 5. Interestingly, both the GFS and
ECMWF ensemble means are well west and slower than their respective
deterministic runs, and the deterministic GFS in particular is an
extreme outlier and much faster than all other guidance by day 5
(likely because it carries a much stronger cyclone). With so many
ensemble solutions slower and to the west, the updated NHC track
forecast is placed to the west of many of the multi-model consensus
aids, and it's just slightly west of the previous forecast.

The moderate to strong shear affecting Earl is unlikely to abate
through much of the forecast period. Despite this shear, very warm
waters of at least 29 degrees Celsius and an unstable atmospheric
environment are expected to encourage gradual strengthening during
the next couple of days. Then, around day 3, Earl could get an
additional positive boost from interaction with an upper-level
trough over the western Atlantic, and the official forecast shows
the system reaching hurricane strength by day 4 and intensifying
through the end of the forecast period. It should be noted that a
few models show significant strengthening by days 4 and 5, but for
now the official forecast is conservative and is only nudged upward
toward the IVCN model consensus.

Tropical-storm-force winds are still forecast to remain on the
northern and eastern side of the circulation, and are not expected
to move across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, or
Puerto Rico. However, gusty winds in squalls are possible at these
locations through Sunday.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Earl is expected to lead to limited flash,
urban, and small stream flooding impacts over the Leeward Islands,
U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend. Rapid
rises on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep terrain are possible
in Puerto Rico.

2. Earl is forecast to pass to the north of the the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico overnight and on Sunday. Gusty winds, especially in
squalls, area possible on those islands through Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 19.5N 64.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 20.0N 65.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 20.9N 66.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 21.7N 66.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 22.7N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 06/1200Z 23.5N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 24.3N 66.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 25.6N 65.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 27.5N 63.6W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 04, 2022 4:00 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Earl Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 AM AST Sun Sep 04 2022

...EARL PASSING NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING IMPACTS IN PUERTO RICO,
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 64.9W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM N OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES




Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 AM AST Sun Sep 04 2022

Satellite imagery, surface observations, and WSR-88D radar data
from Puerto Rico indicate that Earl remains disorganized due to
ongoing southwesterly vertical wind shear, and that the center is
rather tricky to locate. One vorticity center, associated with a
fresh convective burst, is located just north of the Virgin
Islands. However, TAFB and SAB fixed on another cloud area farther
north, while the radar data suggests another vorticity center in
the deep convection to the northeast of the Virgin Islands. The
advisory position is a mean center between these features and is a
little north of the new burst. The satellite intensity estimates
are unchanged from earlier, so the initial intensity remains 45 kt.

The storm has slowed its forward motion, which is now 285/7 kt.
The track guidance is in good agreement that a break will form in
the subtropical ridge as a mid- to upper-level trough develops to
the northwest of Earl beginning later today. This should cause the
cyclone to turn northwestward during the next 12-24 h, with a
northward motion likely from 24-72 h and a north-northeastward
motion from 72-120 h. The track models are in good agreement on
the general direction of motion. However, while the GFS is slower
than its previous forecast it is still faster than the rest of the
guidance. The new forecast track is nudged to the right of the
previous forecast based on the overall shift of the guidance
envelope. During the first 72 h, it is in best agreement with the
GFS and UKMET ensemble means, and after that time it lies close to
the various consensus models.

The ongoing shear is expected to continue through at least the next
72 h, and thus only gradual strengthening is likely during this
time as Earl moves over warm sea surface temperatures in a moist
environment. After that time, the cyclone could interact with the
aforementioned trough in such a way to leave Earl in a more
favorable environment for intensification, and the dynamical
models forecast significant strengthening toward the end of the
forecast period. The new intensity forecast has only minor
adjustments from the previous forecast, and for the first 72 h it is
close to the bulk of the intensity guidance. After it time, the
forecast is below that of most of the guidance due to the
uncertainty of how favorable the environment will be.

Tropical-storm-force winds are still forecast to remain on the
northern and eastern side of the circulation, and are not expected
to move across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, or
Puerto Rico. However, gusty winds in squalls are possible at these
locations through tonight.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Earl is expected to lead to limited flash,
urban, and small stream flooding impacts over the Leeward Islands,
U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today. Rapid
rises on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep terrain are possible
in Puerto Rico.

2. Earl is forecast to pass to the north of the the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico today, and gusty winds, especially in squalls,
area possible on those islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 19.5N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 20.1N 65.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 21.1N 66.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 22.0N 66.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 23.0N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 24.0N 66.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 25.0N 66.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 26.5N 65.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 28.5N 63.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 04, 2022 11:35 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Earl Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 04 2022

...EARL MEANDERING NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING IMPACTS IN PUERTO RICO,
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 64.4W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NNE OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES




Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 04 2022

This morning, Earl developed a large convective burst, with cold
convective cloud tops below -80 C and the larger cirrus plume
obscuring the low-level center. A NOAA-P3 mission has also be flying
through Earl this morning, showing that the center may be in the
process of reorganizing closer to this recent convective burst.
WSR-88D radar imagery from Puerto Rico earlier showed a well-defined
mid-level vortex associated with this convective burst up at 20 k
feet, which matched the NOAA-P3 TDR data, but it is unclear how
close the surface vortex is relative to this mid-level center.
Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are T3.0/45-kt and
T3.5/55-kt respectively, though objective estimates are somewhat
lower, with ADT only at 33-kt and SATCON at 44-kt. A blend of these
estimates and the wind data from the NOAA-P3 mission support
maintaining the intensity at 45 kt for this advisory.

Earl appears to have slowed down further this morning, and may be in
the process of relocating closer to the convective burst, with the
latest motion an uncertain 310/3 kt. As mentioned previously, there
is a weakness in the mid-level ridging to the north of the storm,
and this should enable Earl to make a gradual turn to the
north-northwest and north over the next 24-72 hours. The mid-level
ridging then shifts mostly east of the cyclone, allowing a continued
slow north-northeastward motion thereafter. The latest track
guidance has shifted east in the short term due in part to the
initial position, and the latest NHC track forecast has been shifted
in that direction and lies just west of TVCN consensus. However, the
latest track forecast is not as far to the east as the HFIP
Corrected Consensus (HCCA), GFS or HWRF forecasts, and additional
eastward adjustments may be needed in subsequent forecasts.

The large convective burst this morning makes the short-term
intensity forecast somewhat tricky. If the low-level center is able
to reform and become better aligned with the mid-level center, some
intensification could occur. If and when this occurs is important,
with the latest HWRF and GFS forecasts suggesting this could occur
as soon as later today, resulting in more significant
intensification. However, the HMON, HAFS-S, and ECMWF suggest it may
take a few days for a more aligned structure to occur, likely
delayed by continued moderate (15-25 kts) southwesterly vertical
wind shear, which is expected to persist for the next 2-3 days. The
latest NHC intensity forecast opts to split the difference, now
showing gradual intensification over the next 24-48 hours, making
Earl a hurricane in 48 hours. This is higher than the previous NHC
intensity forecast, but is under the latest HCCA, HWRF, and
GFS-SHIPS guidance. After 72 h, shear is expected to decrease, and
more robust intensification is possible thereafter, with the latest
intensity forecast now making Earl a major hurricane by 120 h, in
good agreement with the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids.

At this juncture, tropical-storm-force winds are still forecast to
remain on the northern and eastern side of the circulation, and are
not expected to move across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, or Puerto Rico. However, gusty winds in squalls are
possible at these locations through tonight.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Earl is expected to lead to limited flash,
urban, and small stream flooding impacts over the Leeward Islands,
U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today. Rapid
rises on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep terrain are possible
in Puerto Rico.

2. Earl is forecast to pass to the north of the the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico today, but gusty winds, especially in squalls,
remain possible on those islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 19.5N 64.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 20.4N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 21.5N 65.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 22.6N 65.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 23.5N 65.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 24.7N 65.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 25.7N 65.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 27.2N 64.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 29.6N 61.8W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 04, 2022 3:59 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Earl Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 PM AST Sun Sep 04 2022

...EARL RESUMES A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...
...ONGOING HEAVY RAINS COULD RESULTING IN FLOODING IMPACTS IN PUERTO
RICO, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 65.2W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 850 MI...1365 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES



Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 PM AST Sun Sep 04 2022

The large bursting pattern that was observed this morning with Earl
has evolved more into a shear pattern this afternoon, with the
low-level center becoming partially exposed to the west of the
coldest cloud tops that are displaced about 50 n mi east of the
center. An Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft conducted an
afternoon mission through the storm and found the highest 850 mb
flight-level winds of 51 kt with SFMR winds up to 48 kt. Satellite
intensity estimates remain unchanged from this morning, and the
initial intensity will remain 45 kt for this advisory.

The last several fixes from the aircraft indicate Earl has resumed a
slow northwestward motion at 310/4 kt. The forecasting reasoning has
not changed much from the previous forecast cycle, as a mid-level
ridge is expected to result in Earl turning to the north-northwest
over the next 12 to 24 hours. This slow motion should continue
thereafter as the ridge continues to slowly break down and shift
gradually eastward through the early part of this week. Towards the
end of the forecast, the strongest ridging is expected to be east of
Earl, allowing the cyclone to slowly recurve to the north-northeast.
The latest track guidance this cycle has narrowed somewhat, with the
latest ECMWF forecast shifting east, while the most recent GFS
shifted a touch west. Thus, little change was made to the NHC track
forecast this advisory, which lies quite close to the latest TVCN
and HCCA consensus aids.

It appears that this morning's convective burst was unsuccessful in
helping to vertically align Earl's vortex, and the mid-level center
noted on Puerto Rico radar is still located east of the aircraft
fixes. This failure was likely due to continued westerly vertical
wind shear undercutting the outflow layer and importing dry air into
Earl's core. However, most of the global and regional hurricane
models suggest that additional convective bursts will continue over
the next 24-48 hours, resulting in gradual intensification as the
cyclone becomes better vertically aligned. Thus, the latest NHC
intensity forecast continues to show slow intensification in the
short-term, with Earl possibly attaining hurricane intensity in a
couple of days. After 72 hours, both the GFS and ECMWF suggest the
shear will decrease, while the cyclone may also undergo a favorable
trough interaction. The guidance responds to this pattern by
indicating more significant intensification, and the latest advisory
shows a somewhat higher peak intensity of 105 kt by day 5.

While tropical-storm-force winds are still forecast to stay north of
the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico,
training rain-bands are producing heavy rainfall over these islands.
Users should refer to products issued by local weather offices in
these areas.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Earl is expected to lead to limited flash,
urban, and small stream flooding impacts over the Leeward Islands,
U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today. Rapid rises
on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep terrain are possible in
Puerto Rico. Locally considerable flood impacts cannot be ruled out
in areas that receive heavier rainfall totals.

2. Earl is forecast to pass to the north of the the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico tonight, but gusty winds, especially in squalls,
remain possible on those islands overnight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 20.0N 65.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 21.1N 65.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 22.3N 65.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 23.5N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 24.6N 65.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 25.4N 65.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 26.4N 65.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 28.2N 64.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 31.4N 61.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#9 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 05, 2022 4:11 am


Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 AM AST Mon Sep 05 2022

Satellite imagery this morning shows that Earl continues to produce
strong convection to the northeast of the center. However, data
from the SHIPS model and analyses from CIMSS at the University
of Wisconsin indicate that there is now 20-25 kt of southwesterly
vertical shear impacting the cyclone. As a result, the low-level
center remains located near or just outside of the southwestern
edge of the main convective mass. Satellite intensity estimates
have changed little since the last advisory, and data from NOAA
buoy 41043 suggests the central pressure is still in the 998-1000
mb range. Based on this, the initial intensity remains 45 kt.
Earlier scatterometer data showed that the circulation center was
elongated from northeast to southwest, and recent wind obs suggest
the northeast end of the elongation is near the NOAA buoy.

Earl is turning more northward, with the initial motion now 335/4
kt. For the next three days or so, the storm should move slowly
northward in the flow between the subtropical ridge to the east and
a mid- to upper-level trough to the west and northwest. After
that, a motion more toward the northeast is expected as Earl
reaches the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies. The
large-scale models are in poor agreement on the features in the
westerlies that Earl will encounter, with the GFS showing stronger
flow and a faster motion than the UKMET and ECMWF. The new
forecast track is changed little through 60 h, then it is nudged a
little westward based on a shift in the guidance envelope. The
track lies close to the various consensus models, and the speed at
the end is a compromise between the faster GFS and the slower
UKMET/ECMWF.

The large-scale models suggest that the current shear will persist
for about the next 48 h. After 48-60 h, Earl may find a region of
lighter shear that could allow more significant strengthening.
The new intensity forecast is a little slower to intensify Earl
through 48 h based on the shear forecast, and it is possible that
Earl could strengthen less than forecast during this time. Later
on, the new forecast is similar to the previous forecast. It
should be noted that if Earl does find a more favorable environment
later in the forecast period, there are several models with a higher
120-h forecast intensity than the current official forecast of 105
kt.

While tropical-storm-force winds are still forecast to stay north of
the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico,
training rainbands are producing heavy rainfall over portions of
these islands. Users should refer to products issued by local
weather offices in these areas.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Earl is expected to lead to limited flash,
urban, and small stream flooding impacts over the Leeward Islands,
U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today. Rapid rises
on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep terrain are possible in
Puerto Rico. Considerable flood impacts cannot be ruled out in
areas that receive heavier rainfall totals.

2. Earl is forecast to remain to the north of the the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico today, but gusty winds, especially in
squalls, remain possible on those islands for a few more hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 20.9N 65.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 21.7N 65.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 22.9N 65.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 24.0N 65.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 25.1N 65.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 26.2N 65.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 27.3N 65.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 30.0N 64.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 33.5N 60.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#10 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 05, 2022 7:59 am

Image
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#11 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 05, 2022 10:10 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Earl Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 05 2022

...EARL NOW A 65-MPH TROPICAL STORM...
...FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 65.3W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM N OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 745 MI...1200 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES



Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 05 2022

Earl is attempting to restructure again this morning. Convection,
which had been primarily located east of the center, due to
persistent moderate westerly vertical wind shear, has begun to pivot
up-shear into the northern quadrant of the storm. A NOAA-P3 mission
that was in the storm this morning indicated the low-level wind
field in the northern semicircle of the storm had also intensified,
with several dropsondes indicating boundary layer mean winds in the
55-65 kt range and one reported a surface wind gust of 57 kt. These
values match the twin Doppler radar (TDR) onboard of the aircraft,
with peak 0.5 km winds above 64 kt. The peak SFMR winds from the
mission were 58 kt, with 700-mb flight-level winds at 63 kt. The
satellite presentation this morning though remains somewhat ragged,
with the low-level circulation partially exposed, though TDR
analysis suggest the vertical tilt between the low- and mid-level
centers has decreased compared to yesterday. Based partially on the
these aircraft observations, the intensity has been set at 55 kt for
this advisory, which also agrees with the latest TAFB intensity
estimate.

The center of the cyclone may have relocated a bit northeast of the
previous position, but the mean general motion appears to still be
to the north-northwest at 340/4 kt. The track model guidance is
generally in good agreement in the short-term that this slow
northward motion should continue, as the cyclone moves poleward
through a weakness in the deep-layer ridging to its north. This
mid-level ridge is then forecast to continue breaking down as a
deep-layer trough approaches from the eastern United States. This
synoptic pattern change should be enough for Earl to begin a
somewhat faster north-northeastward motion after 72 hours. However,
after this time, uncertainty in the along-track direction between
both deterministic and ensemble guidance starts to increase
dramatically, with the GFS and its ensemble mean faster, and the
ECWMF and its ensemble mean slower. The latest NHC track forecast is
a bit further to the east early on, due to the adjustment in the
initial position, but ends up near, if a bit slower, than the
previous forecast track by the end of the forecast period. This
track is close to an average of the latest GFS and ECMWF forecasts.
Given the large uncertainty observed in the guidance at day 5,
forecast track confidence in that time frame is lower than normal.

While Earl was found to be a bit stronger by the NOAA-P3 aircraft
this morning, westerly vertical wind shear is still quite evident,
and both the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance suggests this shear
could actually increase a bit more over the next 24-36 hours. Thus,
only a slight additional amount of intensification is forecast
today, followed by Earl remaining steady over the 24-36 hour period.
After the cyclone moves poleward of the shear zone induced by a
nearby tropical upper-tropospheric trough, the shear is expected to
decrease significantly, allowing more robust intensification. The
tropical storm wind field is also forecast to increase dramatically
during this period as a result of the system also undergoing a
positive upper-level trough interaction. The latest NHC intensity
forecast still shows a peak intensity of 105 kt by day 5, though
some regional hurricane models (HWRF, COAMPS-TC) are a bit higher
than this forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Earl is expected to lead to limited flash,
urban, and small stream flooding impacts over the Leeward Islands,
U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today. Rapid rises
on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep terrain are possible in
Puerto Rico. Considerable flood impacts cannot be ruled out in
areas that receive heavier rainfall totals.

2. Currently Earl is forecast to track to the southeast of Bermuda.
However, the wind field of the tropical cyclone is expected to
increase significantly, and interests on the island should continue
to monitor the progress of the storm closely.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 21.5N 65.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 22.5N 65.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 23.7N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 24.7N 65.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 25.9N 65.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 27.0N 65.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 28.3N 64.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 31.3N 62.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 34.4N 59.1W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#12 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 05, 2022 3:45 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Earl Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 PM AST Mon Sep 05 2022

...EARL NOW MOVING NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 65.2W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM N OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#13 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 05, 2022 9:53 pm

Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 05 2022

Earl's cloud pattern consists of a rather round area of very deep
convection with a few ragged banding features over the eastern
portion of the circulation. Doppler wind data from a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft investigating the tropical cyclone indicate that
the intensity is now near 60 kt and the central pressure has fallen
to around 991 mb. Thus, Earl is very close to hurricane strength
at this time. Radar reflectivity images from the aircraft show an
eye-like feature is developing. The Doppler wind data from the
aircraft also reveal that the vortex is becoming more vertically
aligned than it had been.

During the next few days, the system will be moving through an
area of diffluent anticyclonic upper-level flow, and the
thermodynamic environment should be conducive for intensification.
These factors, along with the current strengthening trend, argue
for continued intensification despite the presence of significant
southwesterly shear through 48 hours. The official intensity
forecast is close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus, HCCA, prediction
and continues to call for Earl to eventually become a major
hurricane.

Aircraft and satellite fixes indicate that Earl is moving northward
near 6 kt. The tropical cyclone should continue to move through a
weakness in the subtropical ridge for the next 48 hours or so.
Thereafter, a broad approaching trough in the southern stream
of the mid-latitude westerlies should cause Earl to turn toward the
north-northeast and then northeast, with some acceleration. The
official track forecast is just slightly to the left of the
previous NHC track in the 2-3 day time frame and is close to the
latest HCCA solution.

Earl's center is expected to pass to the southeast of Bermuda in
around 3-4 days. However, the size of the wind field of the
tropical cyclone is expected to increase significantly, and
interests on the island should continue to monitor the progress of
the storm closely.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 22.9N 65.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 23.6N 65.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 24.7N 65.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 25.8N 65.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 27.3N 65.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 29.0N 64.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 30.8N 63.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 35.5N 58.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 41.0N 53.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#14 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 06, 2022 4:15 am

Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 AM AST Tue Sep 06 2022

The deep convective blow-up that occurred last evening and led to
Earl strengthening just shy of hurricane strength was quickly
obliterated by strong shear around the issuance of the previous
advisory. In fact, after measuring a pressure as low as 991 mb
early in their flight, the NOAA Hurricane Hunters reported that the
central pressure had risen to near 998 mb based on the final
dropsonde released near the center. Some deep convection continues
near and to the northeast of the estimated center, but based on the
degraded structure from earlier, the intensity is estimated to be 55
kt. This value agrees with the latest Dvorak Data-T numbers from
TAFB and SAB.

The remnant cirrus shield is obscuring the low-level center, so the
initial position is based on interpolation from the previous
forecast. Earl is moving just west of due north, or 350/6 kt, and
it should continue a slow northward path through a break in the
subtropical ridge during the next 36 hours. After that time, a
deep-layer trough sliding off the U.S. east coast is expected to
impart a faster north-northeastward and then northeastward motion
into the upcoming weekend. The updated NHC track forecast lies very
close to the previous official prediction during the first 3 days,
situated among the various multi-model consensus aids. On days 4
and 5, however, the new forecast is faster and to the east of the
previous one, following the trend noted in most of the models.

UW-CIMSS and SHIPS analyses indicate that deep-layer shear over
Earl is from the west-southwest at 30-35 kt. Although the
thermodynamic environment is plenty favorable for intensification,
continued moderate to strong shear could put the breaks on
significant strengthening until Earl turns and moves in the same
direction as the shear vector, which should be in 2-3 days. At
about the same time, Earl could also benefit from a positive
interaction with a mid- to upper-level trough located over the
western Atlantic. While the intensity forecast is highly
uncertain, Earl is still expected to become a hurricane during the
next couple of days, and possibly reach major hurricane strength in
3-4 days.

Earl's center is expected to pass to the southeast of Bermuda in
about 3 days. However, the size of the wind field of the tropical
cyclone is expected to increase significantly, and interests on the
island should continue to monitor the progress of the storm closely.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 23.4N 65.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 24.1N 65.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 25.0N 65.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 26.2N 65.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 27.8N 65.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 29.6N 64.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 31.6N 62.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 37.2N 55.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 42.8N 47.9W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#15 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 06, 2022 10:54 am

Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 06 2022

The structure of Earl this morning is trying to regroup, though
strong westerly vertical wind shear continues to affect the system.
A new burst of deep convection has been attempting to form a little
closer to the low-level center. Morning data from the NOAA-P3
Hurricane Reconnaissance mission show that the mid-level center has
shifted back downshear of the center, though the vertical depth of
the overall circulation is deeper than 24 hours ago. The peak flight
winds from the mission were 62 kt at 700mb, with SFMR values in the
50-55 kt range. The initial intensity is maintained at 55 kt for
this advisory, which is also in line with the subjective Dvorak
estimates.

Earl took a bit of a jog to the northwest this morning, but the
larger mean motion is still generally northward at 360/4 kt. The
gentle mid-level ridging that has been overhead of Earl is forecast
to gradually break down and shift off to the southeast, as a
positively-tilted deep-layer trough moves offshore of the eastern
United States. Ultimately, this trough is expected to capture the
tropical cyclone, helping Earl to recurve to the northeast in the
2-4 day forecast period. How sharp and fast this turn to the
northeast though remains uncertain, with the GFS showing a slower
turn in comparison to some of the other guidance. The updated NHC
track forecast lies very close to the previous official forecast,
closest to the HCCA consensus aid, and roughly in between the
westward GFS and eastward ECMWF for the first 72 hours of the
forecast period.

Strong 25-30 kt of vertical wind shear is expected to keep Earl in
check today, with little intensification forecast in the short
term. However, shear begins to decrease markedly in about 36 h,
with both the GFS- and ECMWF-SHIPS shear dropping under 10 kt in
60-72 hours. Thus, the latest forecast continues to indicate Earl
becoming a major hurricane around that time-frame. After 96 h, Earl
is forecast to begin undergoing extratropical transition, with the
latest forecast indicating that process completing by day 5.

Earl's center is expected to pass to the southeast of Bermuda in
60-72 hours. However, the size of the wind field of the tropical
cyclone is expected to increase significantly, and interests on the
island should continue to monitor the progress of the storm closely.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 23.7N 65.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 24.4N 65.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 25.5N 65.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 26.8N 65.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 28.6N 65.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 30.6N 63.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 33.0N 61.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 39.3N 52.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 44.0N 44.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#16 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 06, 2022 4:03 pm

Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 PM AST Tue Sep 06 2022

Earl has become somewhat better organized this afternoon. After the
previous reconnaissance mission concluded, deep convection increased
closer to the low-level circulation, with evidence of deep
convection rotating more up-shear on convectional satellite imagery.
An AMSR2 microwave pass at 1728 UTC also showed this improved
structure, with a formative inner core with at least 50 percent
convective coverage, though it was still evident that the mid-level
center remains displaced to the northeast. This afternoon's Air
Force Reserve Reconnaissance mission confirmed Earl has strengthened
from this morning, with peak 850 mb flight level winds of 72 kt and
SFMR at 63 kt. The second pass through also had a minimum pressure
of 991 mb. These values support increasing the initial intensity to
60 kt this advisory.

Aircraft fixes indicate that Earl has resumed a northward motion,
with the latest estimate at 355/6 kt. There is not much change in
the track reasoning this cycle, as the mid-level ridge over Earl is
expected to break down further and a positively-tilted deep-layer
trough moves offshore of the eastern United States. This trough is
expected to capture the tropical cyclone, helping Earl to recurve to
the northeast with a faster forward motion after 36 hours. The track
guidance did shift a bit to the west this cycle and the latest NHC
track forecast is also bit west of the previous cycle, closest to
the HCCA consensus aid, which remains slightly east of the latest
GFS Forecast.

Earl seems to be effectively battling some rather hostile westerly
deep-layer (200-850 mb) vertical wind shear, estimated at 25-30 kt
in the GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS. Earl's resiliency is possibly
related to the shear under this deep-layer being lower in magnitude
and Earl's vortex column not extending all the way to 200 mb. Given
the improvement in structure today, the latest intensity forecast
now shows some slow intensification despite the shear in the next
12-24 hours. After this period, the shear is forecast to rapidly
decrease to under 10 kt by 48 hours, as the cyclone continues to
traverse anomalously warm 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures. The
majority of the models respond to this favorable environment by
showing significant deepening. The latest NHC intensity forecast is
a bit higher than the prior one, now showing a peak of 110 kt in 72
hours, similar to the latest HCCA guidance. Thereafter, Earl will
likely begin the process of extratropical transition as it interacts
with a mid-latitude trough, with this transition likely to complete
sometime between the 4-5 day time frame when all deep convection is
stripped away.

Earl's center is expected to pass to the southeast of Bermuda in
48-60 hours. However, the size of the wind field of the tropical
cyclone is expected to increase significantly, and the Bermuda
Weather Service has issued a tropical storm watch for the Island of
Bermuda.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 24.1N 65.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 25.0N 65.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 26.3N 65.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 27.9N 65.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 29.9N 64.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 31.9N 62.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 35.0N 59.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 42.0N 50.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 45.0N 41.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#17 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 06, 2022 6:58 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Earl Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
800 PM AST Tue Sep 06 2022

...EARL BECOMES THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE 2022 ATLANTIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 65.8W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the Island of Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was
located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 24.4
North, longitude 65.8 West. Earl is moving toward the north near 6
mph (9 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue into tomorrow
with a gradual turn to the north-northeast on Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Earl is expected to pass to the
southeast of Bermuda by Friday morning.

Data from the Hurricane Hunters indicate that the maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected over the next couple of days and Earl is
forecast to become a major hurricane by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
on Thursday afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#18 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 06, 2022 10:03 pm

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 06 2022

Earl continues to be become better organized this evening. An
ongoing NOAA reconnaissance mission measured 700-mb flight-level
winds as high as 80 kt, which supports an intensity of around 70 kt.
There were some higher winds measured by the SFMR and dropsondes,
however, we prefer to remain on the conservative side given the
fluctuations Earl has been experiencing over the past 24 hours.
Radar images show the eyewall is still open to the south, and Earl
is likely is still experiencing the affects of strong shear.

The aircraft fixes indicate that Earl is moving northward at 6 kt.
A mid-level ridge over the hurricane is expected to continue
weakening while a trough moves off the coast of the eastern United
States. This trough is predicted to steer Earl to the northeast in
about a day or so and accelerate its forward motion poleward. Once
again, the track model guidance has shifted west slightly, and the
NHC track forecast has moved to the west and is closest to the
correct consensus model guidance.

Despite the model-analyzed strong westerly deep-layer shear, Earl
has intensified. This magnitude of shear is predicted to continue
for another day or so before weakening briefly in about two days for
a 24-hour period. Oceanic conditions under the hurricane are
expected to be conducive for further intensification for the next
few days as well. Therefore, the latest official forecast predicts
the hurricane will continue to intensify for the next 24 hours, with
a quicker rate of strengthening between 24 and 72 hours. Earl is
expected to make its extratropical transition by day 5.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although Earl's center is forecast to pass southeast of Bermuda,
the wind field is expected to grow, with tropical-storm-force winds
possibly spreading across the island on Thursday.

2. Swells generated by Earl are expected to reach Bermuda by
Thursday morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions through Friday. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 24.8N 65.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 25.8N 65.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 27.3N 65.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 29.1N 65.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 31.1N 63.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 33.7N 61.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 37.0N 57.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 42.9N 47.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 44.9N 40.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#19 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 07, 2022 3:55 am

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 AM AST Wed Sep 07 2022

Strong westerly shear (analyzed to be around 30 kt) continues to
affect Earl, with the hurricane exhibiting an asymmetric convective
structure in infrared satellite imagery. A recent Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported that the central pressure has
fallen to 981 mb, however there's been no apparent change in the
maximum winds and the eyewall is open to the south and southeast.
The plane measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 78 kt and SFMR
winds as high as 71 kt; therefore the maximum sustained winds are
still estimated to be 70 kt.

Earl has been moving slowly just west of due north, or 355/5 kt,
while sandwiched between a mid-level ridge over the central
Atlantic and high pressure over Florida. A trough over the eastern
United States is expected to move offshore during the next couple
of days, causing Earl to turn northeastward and accelerate through
day 3. The track guidance is tightly clustered during the first 3
days of the forecast, although many of the models have trended a
little slower during the northeastward turn. No cross-track
adjustments to the NHC forecast were needed during that period.
There has been a marked shift and increase in spread among the
track models on days 4 and 5, however, with the GFS, ECMWF, and
COAMPS-TC showing Earl merging with a deep-layer low and turning
northward or northwestward toward Newfoundland as an extratropical
low. For now, the updated NHC forecast shows Earl slowing down
considerably to the southeast of Newfoundland on days 4 and 5.

GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance show the strong shear currently
affecting Earl decreasing to moderate levels in about 12 hours, and
even to low levels in about 36 hours. Combined with very warm
waters and a possible positive trough interaction during the next
24 hours, Earl is forecast to strengthen and is likely to become a
major hurricane in the next 36 to 48 hours while passing to the
southeast of Bermuda. Weakening is expected to begin after day 3
due to colder waters and another increase in shear, and Earl is
forecast to become extratropical by day 4 while it interacts with
the aforementioned deep-layer low to the southeast of Atlantic
Canada.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although Earl's center is forecast to pass southeast of Bermuda,
the wind field is expected to grow, with tropical-storm-force winds
forecast to spread across the island beginning Thursday afternoon
and continuing through Friday morning.

2. Swells generated by Earl are expected to reach Bermuda by
tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions through Friday. Please consult products from
your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 25.3N 65.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 26.4N 65.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 27.9N 65.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 29.7N 64.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 31.8N 63.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 34.5N 60.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 37.9N 55.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 43.6N 48.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0600Z 45.3N 46.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#20 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 07, 2022 9:54 am

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 AM AST Wed Sep 07 2022

Strong westerly shear (analyzed to be around 30 kt) continues to
affect Earl, with the hurricane exhibiting an asymmetric convective
structure in infrared satellite imagery. A recent Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported that the central pressure has
fallen to 981 mb, however there's been no apparent change in the
maximum winds and the eyewall is open to the south and southeast.
The plane measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 78 kt and SFMR
winds as high as 71 kt; therefore the maximum sustained winds are
still estimated to be 70 kt.

Earl has been moving slowly just west of due north, or 355/5 kt,
while sandwiched between a mid-level ridge over the central
Atlantic and high pressure over Florida. A trough over the eastern
United States is expected to move offshore during the next couple
of days, causing Earl to turn northeastward and accelerate through
day 3. The track guidance is tightly clustered during the first 3
days of the forecast, although many of the models have trended a
little slower during the northeastward turn. No cross-track
adjustments to the NHC forecast were needed during that period.
There has been a marked shift and increase in spread among the
track models on days 4 and 5, however, with the GFS, ECMWF, and
COAMPS-TC showing Earl merging with a deep-layer low and turning
northward or northwestward toward Newfoundland as an extratropical
low. For now, the updated NHC forecast shows Earl slowing down
considerably to the southeast of Newfoundland on days 4 and 5.

GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance show the strong shear currently
affecting Earl decreasing to moderate levels in about 12 hours, and
even to low levels in about 36 hours. Combined with very warm
waters and a possible positive trough interaction during the next
24 hours, Earl is forecast to strengthen and is likely to become a
major hurricane in the next 36 to 48 hours while passing to the
southeast of Bermuda. Weakening is expected to begin after day 3
due to colder waters and another increase in shear, and Earl is
forecast to become extratropical by day 4 while it interacts with
the aforementioned deep-layer low to the southeast of Atlantic
Canada.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although Earl's center is forecast to pass southeast of Bermuda,
the wind field is expected to grow, with tropical-storm-force winds
forecast to spread across the island beginning Thursday afternoon
and continuing through Friday morning.

2. Swells generated by Earl are expected to reach Bermuda by
tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions through Friday. Please consult products from
your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 25.3N 65.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 26.4N 65.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 27.9N 65.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 29.7N 64.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 31.8N 63.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 34.5N 60.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 37.9N 55.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 43.6N 48.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0600Z 45.3N 46.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg
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