EPAC: KAY - Models

[Kingarabian]

Compared to the usual EPAC threads, the main thread could be littered with a bunch of model runs over the next 5 days. Figure a separate thread would keep things more organized.

[Kingarabian]

Some things to note.
1. Only two TCs have made landfall in California since 1858. The San Diego Hurricane and the 1939 Long Beach Tropical Storm.

2. Models and ensembles agree this can reach the off shore coordinates of San Diego as an intact and large TC.

3. Other than some ensemble members, deterministic models are not showing a landfall in the most recent runs.

[CrazyC83]

I have a hard time believing this could be a serious California threat. After all, that would be unprecedented outside a strong El Nino, and it would take a perfect set of circumstances. You never know though...

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS turns this west at hour 120.


12z CMC also as well.


ICON is the only one taking up the Baja California spine.

[Kingarabian]

06z GEFS


00z CMC


Still a good shot for the deep SW CONUS to get rain out of this.

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS stalls this

[Kingarabian]

12z CMC almost landfalls.


Thinking the ensembles shift a little more east.

[Yellow Evan]

Eastward shifts are expected now that Kay is getting vertically deep.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1566841890745360384

[Kingarabian]

Could see flooding if the model solutions of this stalling verifies AND it's closer to land.

[Kingarabian]

Lots of ensembles doing a stall and loop back to land on the latest GEFS.

[Nimbus]

Could be case of too much rain too fast for southern California.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro initially is west of Baja. Then does that same stall and loop.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1566847396973137920

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS further east as well but still shows it staying offshore and making a loop.

[Kingarabian]

Some GEFS members showing that this somehow gets to California as a TC. Most members keep it offshore before showing it to do a stall and a loop back east. Time frame is coming in and it does not look like we'll see a stout ridge to force this west.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS now almost brings this onshore Baja in 60 hours. ECMWF also shifting a little more left at 12z.

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS brings this close to Baja compared to last runs. But Euro shifted west away from land.

[Kingarabian]

18Z GFS Turns it out away at the last minute.

[Kingarabian]

GFS trend