WPAC: NANMADOL - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

92W INVEST 220905 1800 20.3N 141.5E WPAC 15 0

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/secto ... ector_file

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 060600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC
OCEANS/060600Z-070600ZSEP2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060151ZSEP2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060321ZSEP2022//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 06SEP22 0000Z, TYPHOON 12W (HINNAMNOR) WAS LOCATED NEAR
36.5N 130.6E, APPROXIMATELY 111 NM NORTHEAST OF BUSAN, SOUTH KOREA,
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 31 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS GUSTING TO
90 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 060300) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
24.4N 139.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 137.4E, APPROXIMATELY 255 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF IWO-TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 052149Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE
BANDING BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) (30-31C). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A
SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS
WITH A COMPLEX MERGER OCCURRING WITH INVEST 92W AND GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW
060330) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.5N
142.2E, APPROXIMATELY 259 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO-TO. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH BROAD CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 060042Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS A WEAK LLC WITH A
SWATH OF 15KT WINDS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
DEFINED BY LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST
(30-31C), OFFSET BY MARGINAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL HAVE SLOW DEVELOPMENT AND REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE MEANDERING GENERALLY NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 24.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

Ensemble supports it too

[Hayabusa]

ECMWF 12Z makes this a 949 mb storm

[Hayabusa]

92W INVEST 220909 0000 26.8N 144.5E WPAC 20 1010

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 091330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/091330Z-100600ZSEP2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090751ZSEP2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 09SEP22 0600Z, TROPICAL STORM 14W (MUIFA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 19.2N 128.7E, APPROXIMATELY 441 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, AND HAD
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 090900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 27.2N
147E, APPROXIMATELY 630 NM SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 091053Z ASCAT-B PASS DEPICTS A FULLY
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH EAST. HIMAWARI-8 090300Z
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS 92W IS IN A LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW, BOTH FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
92W WILL GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY TRACKING WEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 29-30C, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 24.7N
159.6E, APPROXIMATELY 343 NM SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
TRACKING TO THE WEST. HIMAWARI-8 090300Z ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS
93W IS IN A LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW, BOTH FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL TRACK NORTH AND DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 28-29C, MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

medium

ABPW10 PGTW 102130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/102130Z-110600ZSEP2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101952ZSEP2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101951ZSEP2022//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 10SEP22 1800Z, TYPHOON 14W (MUIFA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N
125.0E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, AND HAD
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS GUSTING TO 125
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 102100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 10SEP22 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 159.8E, APPROXIMATELY 377 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
MINAMI TORI SHIMA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30
KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN31 PGTW 102100) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
26.6N 147.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 144.8E, APPROXIMATELY 231 NM
NORTH OF IWO TO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 101600Z AMSR2 COMPOSITE IMAGE DEPICT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING AND DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW (10-15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92W
WILL TRACK GRADUALLY WESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Hayabusa]

06z peaks at cat 4

[Hayabusa]

What's interesting about this is that HWRF intensifies until it's close to landfall over Japan, kind of like Faxai.
Those storms usually look like trash when they go in high latitudes (like the recent Hinnamnor and Muifa).

[Hayabusa]

WTPN21 PGTW 120200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 140 NM RADIUS OF 22.9N 139.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 120000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 139.1E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
26.8N 143.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 139.1E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM SITS BELOW A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW WITH LIMITED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92W WILL REMAIN GENERALLY QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
130200Z.
//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

[doomhaMwx]

Forecast from CWB Taiwan (seems to be the only agency that has issued a forecast so far).

Analysis
1200UTC 12 September 2022

Center Location 21.9N 138.9E
Movement ENE 5km/hr
Minimum Pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum Wind Speed 15 m/s
Gust 23 m/s

Forecast

6 hours valid at:
1800UTC 12 September 2022
Center Position 22.3N 138.9E
Vector to 6 HR Position
N 7 km/hr
Minimum Pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum Wind Speed 15 m/s
Gust 23 m/s
Radius of 70% probability circle 50km

12 hours valid at:
0000UTC 13 September 2022
Center Position 22.5N 138.9E
Vector to 12 HR Position
N Slowly
Minimum Pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum Wind Speed 15 m/s
Gust 23 m/s
Radius of 70% probability circle 100km

18 hours valid at:
0600UTC 13 September 2022
Center Position 22.7N 139.0E
Vector to 18 HR Position
NNE Slowly
Minimum Pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum Wind Speed 15 m/s
Gust 23 m/s
Radius of 70% probability circle 130km

24 hours valid at:
1200UTC 13 September 2022
Center Position 23.0N 139.0E
Vector to 24 HR Position
N 6 km/hr
Minimum Pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum Wind Speed 15 m/s
Gust 23 m/s
Radius of 70% probability circle 160km

36 hours valid at:
0000UTC 14 September 2022
Center Position 23.5N 139.1E
Vector to 36 HR Position
N Slowly
Minimum Pressure 998 hPa
Maximum Wind Speed 18 m/s
Gust 25 m/s
Radius of over 15m/s winds 100km
Radius of 70% probability circle 250km
Becoming tropical storm at 36 hours

48 hours valid at:
1200UTC 14 September 2022
Center Position 24.0N 138.3E
Vector to 48 HR Position
WNW 8 km/hr
Minimum Pressure 995 hPa
Maximum Wind Speed 20 m/s
Gust 28 m/s
Radius of over 15m/s winds 100km
Radius of 70% probability circle 260km

72 hours valid at:
1200UTC 15 September 2022
Center Position 25.5N 134.8E
Vector to 72 HR Position
WNW 16 km/hr
Minimum Pressure 988 hPa
Maximum Wind Speed 23 m/s
Gust 30 m/s
Radius of over 15m/s winds 120km
Radius of 70% probability circle 340km

96 hours valid at:
1200UTC 16 September 2022
Center Position 27.5N 131.6E
Vector to 96 HR Position
NW 16 km/hr
Minimum Pressure 985 hPa
Maximum Wind Speed 25 m/s
Gust 33 m/s
Radius of over 15m/s winds 150km
Radius of 70% probability circle 500km

120 hours valid at:
1200UTC 17 September 2022
Center Position 30.2N 130.0E
Vector to 120 HR Position
NNW 14 km/hr
Minimum Pressure 985 hPa
Maximum Wind Speed 25 m/s
Gust 33 m/s
Radius of over 15m/s winds 150km
Radius of 70% probability circle 800km

[wxman57]

Looks like Taiwan is forecasting max winds of 50 kts with this storm. I think that's quite low. I wonder what they're seeing to go so low with wind speeds. Of course, I don't believe the GFS (or HWRF) pressures and wind speeds, but everything points toward at least a moderate to strong typhoon.

[Hurricane2022]

Looks like Taiwan is forecasting max winds of 50 kts with this storm. I think that's quite low. I wonder what they're seeing to go so low with wind speeds. Of course, I don't believe the GFS (or HWRF) pressures and wind speeds, but everything points toward at least a moderate to strong typhoon.

Maybe a Category 1/3 typhoon is likely?

[ElectricStorm]

16W SIXTEEN 220912 1800 21.7N 138.5E WPAC 25 1000

[Hayabusa]

WDPN33 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 21.7N 138.5E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 242 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 03 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAGGED
AND STILL SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION WITH POCKETS OF FLARING
CONVECTION FIRING AND DISSIPATING ON THE PERIPHERY OF A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS VERY
BROAD, WITH AN OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR RADIUS OF 250NM, BRINGING IT
CLOSE TO THRESHOLD OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER
DATA INDICATED THE SYSTEM HAS SLID SOUTHWARD OVER THE PREVIOUS 12
HOURS AND BUT NOW HAS COME TO A HALT AND BEGUN DRIFTING BACK TO THE
EAST. A 121846Z SSMIS COLORIZED 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED
DISORGANIZED AND FRAGMENTED BANDING FEATURES, PARTICULARLY ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LLCC, WRAPPING INTO THE ILL-DEFINED CENTER,
AND LENT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. MEANWHILE, THE
SSMIS WINDSPEED ESTIMATE SHOWED PATCHES OF 25-30 KNOTS WINDS,
MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SECTORS, WHICH ALIGNS WELL
WITH A 121130Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWING A BROAD REGION OF 20-25 KNOT
WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. ANALYSIS REVEALS AN OVERALL MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR AND SSTS BEING OFFSET BY WEAK
OUTFLOW CONDITIONS ALOFT. THE STEERING PATTERN IS WEAK WITH THE
SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONNECTING WITH TY
14W TO THE WEST, AND A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH
AND NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN NER
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND STR TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
KNES: T1.0 - 25 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: WEAK RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY LIES WITHIN A COMPLEX
STEERING PATTERN DEFINED BY A NER TO THE SOUTH AND A STR TO THE
NORTH, AND ITSELF BEING EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE, NEARLY MONSOON
GYRE-SIZED TROUGH WHICH CONNECTS WITH TY 14W TO THE WEST. THE
STRONGEST GRADIENT HOWEVER IS CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM AND THUS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE IS THE NER TO THE
SOUTH. HENCE THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AROUND TAU 36
THE NER WILL WEAKEN AND FLATTEN OUT, REDUCING THE GRADIENT FORCE ON
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND AS THE PRIMARY STEERING
MECHANISM SHIFTS TO THE STR OVER JAPAN, TD 16W WILL TURN SHARPLY
ONTO A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING BY TAU 48. ONCE ESTABLISHED ON THE
NEW COURSE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPEED UP AS IT TRACKS ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR. THE APPROACH OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE RIDGE BY
TAU 96, ALLOWING FOR THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN TO RECURVE POLEWARD AT
THAT TIME. WHILE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE
SYSTEM DOES NOT ESTABLISH A GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNEL FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST 48 HOURS, WHICH WILL KEEP A LID ON THE PACE OF CONSOLIDATION
AND INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THAT POINT. BY TAU 48, MODELS SHOW THE
FIRST HINTS OF AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE AND BY TAU 72 SHOW
ESTABLISHMENT OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
A MORE RAPID PACE OF INTENSIFICATION, TO A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU
96. THEREAFTER THE SYSTEM STALLS OUT AT 90 KNOTS AS IT GETS CUT OFF
FROM THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND FACES CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT
EMANATING FROM A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONE AT 200MB POSITIONED TO THE
NORTHEAST.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT OVERALL, WITH ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS AGREEING ON THE
SHORT-TERM DRIFT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST FOLLOWED BY THE SHARP TURN
TO THE WEST BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 48. GFS IS THE OUTLIER UP TO TAU 48,
SHOWING A WIDER MORE GRADUAL TURN AND EXTENDING EAST OUT TO NEAR
141E BEFORE TURNING WEST. THE REMAINDER OF THE PACK CONCURS ON A
TURN AROUND 140E OR A BIT FURTHER WEST, LEADING TO A SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE OF ABOUT 100NM AT THE TURNING POINT. ONCE FIRMLY ON THE
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK, THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD ACTUALLY DECREASES TO
90NM BY TAU 72, THOUGH THE GFS LAGS BEHIND THE PACK DUE TO IT'S
FURTHER EAST STARTING POINT. AFTER TAU 72, THE DETERMINISTIC
TRACKERS QUICKLY SPREAD TO 230NM WITH THE ECMWF AND GALWEM ON THE
LEFT AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND NAVGEM ON THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY, WITH THE
ECENS INDICATING A STRONGER RIDGE THAT FIGHTS OFF THE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE NORTH, WITH A
RESULTANT FLATTER TRACK, JUST NORTH OF OKINAWA. THE GEFS MEANWHILE
ERODES THE RIDGE MUCH FASTER, ALLOWING FOR A SHARP RECURVE TOWARDS
SOUTHERN KYUSHU, THOUGH SOME MEMBERS DO AGREE WITH THE ECENS MEAN.
THE JTWC TRACK LIES JUST EAST AND NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN,
HEDGED TOWARDS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE NEAR-TERM ERRATIC
MOTION AND LONGER TERM ENSEMBLE SPREAD. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A RATHER SLOW INTENSIFICATION TREND THROUGH TAU
48 FOLLOWED BY SHARPER INTENSIFICATION THEREAFTER. HWRF AND
DECAY-SHIPS (GFS) ARE ON THE HIGHER END OF THE ENVELOPE AFTER TAU
72, AND PEAK THE SYSTEM AT 105 KNOTS. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE CONSENSUS TO TAU 48 THEN MATCHES IT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

WTPQ22 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2214 NANMADOL (2214) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 22.4N 140.1E FAIR
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 141800UTC 23.7N 139.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 151800UTC 24.4N 135.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 161800UTC 26.0N 132.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

[Hayabusa]

What a change from the latest Euro run, it strikes the country of Taiwan instead of recurving towards Japan.

[doomhaMwx]

16W NANMADOL 220915 0600 23.5N 137.9E WPAC 65 975

Issued at 2022/09/15 06:45 UTC
Analysis at 09/15 06 UTC
Grade STS
Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N23°20′ (23.3°)
E137°55′ (137.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of 50-kt wind area 110 km (60 NM)
Radius of 30-kt wind area 600 km (325 NM)