ATL: Ex INVEST 95L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#21 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 08, 2022 12:59 pm

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure located
about a thousand miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has
a well-defined center, and earlier satellite wind data indicated
that the system is producing maximum sustained winds winds up to
40-45 mph to its north. However, the associated shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, and has become displaced
further from the center compared to this morning. Environmental
conditions appear only marginally conducive for additional
development, but only a small increase in organization in the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity could result in the
formation of a short-lived tropical storm in the next day or so
as it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the
central tropical Atlantic. By this weekend, environmental
conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development.
For more information on this system, including Gale Warnings, please
refer to the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#22 Postby Hammy » Thu Sep 08, 2022 1:55 pm

Not sure why they're keeping the chances so high, it met the criteria overnight and should've been upgraded--if they didn't then, they won't now with the convection so far removed.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#23 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 08, 2022 1:57 pm

40kt.

AL, 95, 2022090818, , BEST, 0, 198N, 420W, 40, 1004, LO
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#24 Postby kevin » Thu Sep 08, 2022 2:01 pm

cycloneye wrote:40kt.

AL, 95, 2022090818, , BEST, 0, 198N, 420W, 40, 1004, LO


Does this mean we have Fiona or can an invest also have 40 kt winds?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#25 Postby Hammy » Thu Sep 08, 2022 2:13 pm

kevin wrote:
cycloneye wrote:40kt.

AL, 95, 2022090818, , BEST, 0, 198N, 420W, 40, 1004, LO


Does this mean we have Fiona or can an invest also have 40 kt winds?


LO means there's no upgrade, there was an invest in 2005 when Katrina was active that if I recall was 45kt
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#26 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Sep 08, 2022 3:37 pm

Hammy wrote:
kevin wrote:
cycloneye wrote:40kt.

AL, 95, 2022090818, , BEST, 0, 198N, 420W, 40, 1004, LO


Does this mean we have Fiona or can an invest also have 40 kt winds?


LO means there's no upgrade, there was an invest in 2005 when Katrina was active that if I recall was 45kt



It is insane that there's no upgrade with a well defined LLC producing 40 knot winds. Shear or no shear.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#27 Postby Hammy » Thu Sep 08, 2022 3:44 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:
Hammy wrote:
kevin wrote:
Does this mean we have Fiona or can an invest also have 40 kt winds?


LO means there's no upgrade, there was an invest in 2005 when Katrina was active that if I recall was 45kt



It is insane that there's no upgrade with a well defined LLC producing 40 knot winds. Shear or no shear.


That's three so far that are going in my archives, the other being the May storm and the one that developed as it was moving into Texas in mid-August
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#28 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Thu Sep 08, 2022 4:15 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:
Hammy wrote:
kevin wrote:
Does this mean we have Fiona or can an invest also have 40 kt winds?


LO means there's no upgrade, there was an invest in 2005 when Katrina was active that if I recall was 45kt



It is insane that there's no upgrade with a well defined LLC producing 40 knot winds. Shear or no shear.
There is no deep convection anywhere close to the center currently. It is a naked swirl. Very vigorous though. If it can find better conditions watch out.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#29 Postby Nimbus » Thu Sep 08, 2022 4:40 pm

Hammy wrote:
Sciencerocks wrote:
Hammy wrote:
LO means there's no upgrade, there was an invest in 2005 when Katrina was active that if I recall was 45kt



It is insane that there's no upgrade with a well defined LLC producing 40 knot winds. Shear or no shear.


That's three so far that are going in my archives, the other being the May storm and the one that developed as it was moving into Texas in mid-August


The Port Aransas 10 second TS wind data back in mid August could have qualified but it was the flooding inland later that was the concern. I would have won the August poll with a single storm, oh well.

Naked swirls racing into higher shear probably aren't worth upgrading but right at sunrise she looked like she was ready to go.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#30 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 08, 2022 6:46 pm

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A low pressure system located about 1300 miles east of the northern
Leeward Islands is producing shower and thunderstorm activity that
is displaced well to the northeast of the circulation center by
strong upper-level winds. Environmental conditions appear to be only
marginally conducive for additional development. However, an
increase in organization of the system could still result in the
formation of a short-lived tropical cyclone in the next day or so as
it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the
central tropical Atlantic. By this weekend, environmental
conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development.
For more information on this system, including Gale Warnings, please
refer to the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#31 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 09, 2022 6:51 am

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A gale-force low pressure system is located about 1100 miles east of
the Leeward Islands. Although the low has a well-defined center of
circulation, strong upper-level winds have caused most of the
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the
low to be displaced well to its northeast. The strong upper-level
winds are forecast to persist for the next several days and it is
becoming less likely that a short-lived tropical storm will form.
Regardless of development, the disturbance is forecast to move
generally west-northwestward near 15 mph across the central
subtropical Atlantic. For more information on this system, including
gale warnings, please refer to the High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#32 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Sep 09, 2022 10:01 am

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#33 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 09, 2022 12:54 pm

Down to 10%.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east of the Leeward
Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity,
mostly displaced well to the northeast of the center of the low.
Strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant
development of this system while it moves generally
west-northwestward or northwestward for the next day or so. The
disturbance is then forecast to merge with a non-tropical system
over the weekend. For more information on this system, including
gale warnings, please refer to the High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 95L - Discussion

#34 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 09, 2022 8:11 pm

NHC took it out from TWO.
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