ATL: Ex INVEST 95L - Discussion

[Subtrop]

AL, 95, 2022090618, , BEST, 0, 138N, 276W, 25, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS024, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 024, SPAWNINVEST, al762022 to al952022,
AL, 95, 2022090700, , BEST, 0, 137N, 293W, 25, 1012, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 024,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[ElectricStorm]

I was wondering when they were going to tag this. Should be an easy recurve, but models aren't really doing much with it. I could see this briefly spinning up though, maybe it can become Fiona.

[Hammy]

Tagged as an invest and models immediately start backing off

[Sciencerocks]

[tropicwatch]

Another one to roam the Atlantic.

[Emmett_Brown]

When you step back from the screen and look at the whole Atlantic ocean visible image, 95L is a large system with nice symmetry. Models don't seem to like it much, and the board members are kind of brushing it off, but I am now a fan, I like the look of this system. I expect it to over perform. Go 95L!

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure located
several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands is gradually
becoming better defined. However, the associated shower and
thunderstorm activity still remains disorganized. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development of this
system over the next day or two, and a tropical depression is likely
form by Friday while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15
to 20 mph over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. After
that time, upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive
for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[wxman57]

Models indicate slow weakening by tomorrow. Could be classified as a TD by the NHC this hour. Won't be around long. Looking like a subtropical Atlantic season.

[aspen]

One of the better looking waves this year. Seems to be close to becoming a TD, but we'll need ASCAT to confirm.

[Sciencerocks]

[Hammy]

About as close as this will get to developing. NHC has it at 70% and BT still has a disturbance, all but guaranteeing it won't get upgraded before it runs out of time later today.

[Nimbus]

Looks like we have a low level center producing white convection near 19-20N.
Should follow Earl out to sea from that latitude so will be less stressful to watch.

[cycloneye]

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located almost a thousand miles west of the
Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form within the next day or so while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the central tropical
Atlantic. After that time, upper-level winds are forecast to become
less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

Very exposed.

[ChrisH-UK]

Worrying ly looks like 95L shear is causing problems and the vorticity isn't stacked as well.

Source GOES-16 Geo Colour - https://col.st/Fwnq7

[tolakram]

Shear only gets worse from here. I thought marginal was 20 to 30kts.



source: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic.php# click on the Invest

[InfernoFlameCat]

This is clearly a tropical depression. Tight swirl with convection

[Sciencerocks]

[AutoPenalti]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/2660/rG3Tkt.gif

Ew, she's naked.