https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/secto ... ector_file
WPAC: MERBOK - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
WPAC: MERBOK - Post-Tropical
93W INVEST 220909 0000 24.7N 161.8E WPAC 15 1010
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/secto ... ector_file
Last edited by Hayabusa on Tue Sep 13, 2022 5:29 pm, edited 6 times in total.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W
Latest 18z EPS, Euro is developing this for many runs now
GEFS too
GEFS too
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W
WWJP27 RJTD 090000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 090000.
WARNING VALID 100000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1012 HPA AT 24N 161E WEST SLOWLY .
WARNING AND SUMMARY 090000.
WARNING VALID 100000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1012 HPA AT 24N 161E WEST SLOWLY .
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W
JMA downgraded it to LPA while it made 92W a TD
WWJP27 RJTD 090600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 090600.
WARNING VALID 100600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 27N 146E ENE SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 24N 160E WEST SLOWLY.
WARNING AND SUMMARY 090600.
WARNING VALID 100600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 27N 146E ENE SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 24N 160E WEST SLOWLY.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W
ABPW10 PGTW 091330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/091330Z-100600ZSEP2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090751ZSEP2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 09SEP22 0600Z, TROPICAL STORM 14W (MUIFA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 19.2N 128.7E, APPROXIMATELY 441 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, AND HAD
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 090900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 27.2N
147E, APPROXIMATELY 630 NM SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 091053Z ASCAT-B PASS DEPICTS A FULLY
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH EAST. HIMAWARI-8 090300Z
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS 92W IS IN A LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW, BOTH FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
92W WILL GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY TRACKING WEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 29-30C, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 24.7N
159.6E, APPROXIMATELY 343 NM SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
TRACKING TO THE WEST. HIMAWARI-8 090300Z ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS
93W IS IN A LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW, BOTH FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL TRACK NORTH AND DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 28-29C, MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/091330Z-100600ZSEP2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090751ZSEP2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 09SEP22 0600Z, TROPICAL STORM 14W (MUIFA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 19.2N 128.7E, APPROXIMATELY 441 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, AND HAD
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 090900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 27.2N
147E, APPROXIMATELY 630 NM SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 091053Z ASCAT-B PASS DEPICTS A FULLY
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH EAST. HIMAWARI-8 090300Z
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS 92W IS IN A LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW, BOTH FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
92W WILL GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY TRACKING WEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 29-30C, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 24.7N
159.6E, APPROXIMATELY 343 NM SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
TRACKING TO THE WEST. HIMAWARI-8 090300Z ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS
93W IS IN A LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW, BOTH FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL TRACK NORTH AND DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 28-29C, MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W
medium
ABPW10 PGTW 100230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/100230Z-100600ZSEP2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091951ZSEP2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 09SEP22 1800Z, TYPHOON 14W (MUIFA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N
126.8E, APPROXIMATELY 388 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS. SEE REF
A (WTPN32 PGTW 092100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
27.2N 147.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 147.5E, APPROXIMATELY 672 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 092054Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A FULLY OBSCURED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION TRACKING TO WEST-
SOUTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, FAIR EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM
(28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 92W WILL GRADUALLY TRACK WEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH
LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
24.7N 159.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 158.4E, APPROXIMATELY 479 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 091823Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, GOOD NORTHWESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93W WILL
TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/100230Z-100600ZSEP2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091951ZSEP2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 09SEP22 1800Z, TYPHOON 14W (MUIFA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N
126.8E, APPROXIMATELY 388 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS. SEE REF
A (WTPN32 PGTW 092100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
27.2N 147.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 147.5E, APPROXIMATELY 672 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 092054Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A FULLY OBSCURED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION TRACKING TO WEST-
SOUTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, FAIR EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM
(28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 92W WILL GRADUALLY TRACK WEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH
LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
24.7N 159.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 158.4E, APPROXIMATELY 479 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 091823Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, GOOD NORTHWESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93W WILL
TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W
TCFA
WTPN21 PGTW 101730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.8N 159.6E TO 22.8N 162.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 101700Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.9N 159.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
21.5N 158.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 159.8E, APPROXIMATELY 396 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS WEAK BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
LLC. A PARTIAL 101029Z ASCAT METOP-B 25KM PASS SHOWS 15-20KT WINDS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93W WILL TRACK NORTH-
NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
111730Z.
//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.8N 159.6E TO 22.8N 162.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 101700Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.9N 159.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
21.5N 158.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 159.8E, APPROXIMATELY 396 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS WEAK BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
LLC. A PARTIAL 101029Z ASCAT METOP-B 25KM PASS SHOWS 15-20KT WINDS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93W WILL TRACK NORTH-
NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
111730Z.
//
NNNN
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
- ElectricStorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 4523
- Age: 23
- Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
- Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK
Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W
15W FIFTEEN 220910 1800 20.9N 159.8E WPAC 30 1000
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I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Boomer Sooner!
Boomer Sooner!
Re: WPAC: 15W - Tropical Depression
TD b
Issued at 2022/09/11 10:10 UTC
Analysis at 09/11 09 UTC
Grade TD
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N20°55′ (20.9°)
E160°10′ (160.2°)
Direction and speed of movement E Slow
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Forecast for 09/12 09 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N22°25′ (22.4°)
E162°00′ (162.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Forecast for 09/13 06 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N24°30′ (24.5°)
E162°35′ (162.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE Slow
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)
Forecast for 09/14 06 UTC
Grade STS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N29°00′ (29.0°)
E162°30′ (162.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 440 km (240 NM)
Forecast for 09/15 06 UTC
Grade STS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N38°05′ (38.1°)
E165°35′ (165.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 45 km/h (24 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 520 km (280 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 570 km (310 NM)
Forecast for 09/16 06 UTC
Grade LOW
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N48°05′ (48.1°)
E176°00′ (176.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 55 km/h (31 kt)
Central pressure 986 hPa
Maximum wind speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 800 km (440 NM)
Issued at 2022/09/11 10:10 UTC
Analysis at 09/11 09 UTC
Grade TD
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N20°55′ (20.9°)
E160°10′ (160.2°)
Direction and speed of movement E Slow
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Forecast for 09/12 09 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N22°25′ (22.4°)
E162°00′ (162.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Forecast for 09/13 06 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N24°30′ (24.5°)
E162°35′ (162.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE Slow
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)
Forecast for 09/14 06 UTC
Grade STS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N29°00′ (29.0°)
E162°30′ (162.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 440 km (240 NM)
Forecast for 09/15 06 UTC
Grade STS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N38°05′ (38.1°)
E165°35′ (165.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 45 km/h (24 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 520 km (280 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 570 km (310 NM)
Forecast for 09/16 06 UTC
Grade LOW
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N48°05′ (48.1°)
E176°00′ (176.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 55 km/h (31 kt)
Central pressure 986 hPa
Maximum wind speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 800 km (440 NM)
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: MERBOK - Tropical Storm
WTPQ51 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2213 MERBOK (2213) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120000UTC 21.2N 161.3E FAIR
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 130000UTC 23.8N 162.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 140000UTC 27.4N 162.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 150000UTC 34.0N 163.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 160000UTC 46.5N 172.6E 260NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2213 MERBOK (2213) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120000UTC 21.2N 161.3E FAIR
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 130000UTC 23.8N 162.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 140000UTC 27.4N 162.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 150000UTC 34.0N 163.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 160000UTC 46.5N 172.6E 260NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: MERBOK - Tropical Storm
Hi, looks like WPAC is having more after Merbok. To climo experts here, though it may be too early, but isn't the MJO profile too wack if we're to expect a La Nina intensification by summer
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Re: WPAC: MERBOK - Typhoon
WTPQ51 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2213 MERBOK (2213) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 26.5N 162.2E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 140600UTC 29.9N 161.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE N 17KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 141800UTC 33.4N 162.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 18KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 151800UTC 47.6N 170.4E 75NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2213 MERBOK (2213) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 26.5N 162.2E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 140600UTC 29.9N 161.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE N 17KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 141800UTC 33.4N 162.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 18KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 151800UTC 47.6N 170.4E 75NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
- Ed_2001
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 228
- Age: 22
- Joined: Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:39 pm
- Location: Santa Barbara, CA>>Tampa, FL
Re: WPAC: MERBOK - Post-Tropical
Overshadowed by Fiona and her two wpac siblings, but Merbok has just casually rebuilt an very tropical like core while on the verge of ex-transition at 40N. Another NHEM high latitude shenanigan in the books. Now on its way to the Aleutians with hurricane force winds, possibly perturbing the NPAC jet stream with implications on near future US weather patterns.
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The answer my friend, is blowing in the wind...
- doomhaMwx
- Category 5
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Re: WPAC: MERBOK - Post-Tropical
The extratropical life of Merbok certainly looks much more interesting.
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- Ed_2001
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 228
- Age: 22
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- mrbagyo
- Category 5
- Posts: 3614
- Age: 31
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
- Location: 14.13N 120.98E
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: MERBOK - Post-Tropical
Buoy 46035 in the Central Bering Sea has now recorded a maximum wave height of 44.9 feet at 16 seconds period (and still rising)
Pressure is down to 955.6 mb (falling rapidly)
Pressure is down to 955.6 mb (falling rapidly)
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
- mrbagyo
- Category 5
- Posts: 3614
- Age: 31
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Re: WPAC: MERBOK - Post-Tropical
wave height peaked at 51.8 feet (15.8 meters) at Buoy 46035
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
- InfernoFlameCat
- Category 5
- Posts: 1966
- Age: 21
- Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
- Location: Buford, GA
Re: WPAC: MERBOK - Post-Tropical
I love impressive nontropical cyclones. This one could go sub 940mb. Very impressive.
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I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
- mrbagyo
- Category 5
- Posts: 3614
- Age: 31
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
- Location: 14.13N 120.98E
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Re: WPAC: MERBOK - Post-Tropical
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
- mrbagyo
- Category 5
- Posts: 3614
- Age: 31
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
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Re: WPAC: MERBOK - Post-Tropical
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
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