EPAC: MADELINE - Remnants

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#21 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Sep 16, 2022 11:09 am

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#22 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Sep 16, 2022 7:16 pm

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, are
gradually becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form tonight or on Saturday. This
disturbance is forecast to meander off the southwestern coast of
Mexico through the end of this week, and then begin to move
northwestward early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#23 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Sep 16, 2022 7:20 pm

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#24 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 16, 2022 8:07 pm

TXPZ25 KNES 170022
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94E)

B. 16/2330Z

C. 14.1N

D. 107.0W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/2.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...UNCERTAIN OF THE LOCATION OF THE LLCC. CENTER BASED ON
MID LEVEL TURNING. DT OF 1.5 IS BASED ON LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
LOCATED LT 75NMI FROM A LARGE AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. MET IS 1.0 AND
PT IS 1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#25 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 17, 2022 1:23 pm

1. Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
A low pressure system continues to produce shower and thunderstorm
activity a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. This
disturbance continues to show signs of organization, and a tropical
depression will likely form later today or tonight. The low is
forecast to meander off the southwestern coast of Mexico this
weekend, and then turn north-northwestward early next week. For more
information on this system, including gale warnings, please see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#26 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 17, 2022 1:26 pm

1. Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a well-defined low
pressure system have shown signs of becoming better organized over
the past few hours. If current trends continue, advisories will be
initiated on a new tropical depression or tropical storm this
afternoon. The low is forecast to meander off the southwestern coast
of Mexico today and then head northward or north-northwestward on
Sunday. A slow turn toward the northwest or west-northwest is then
expected through the middle of next week. For more information on
this system, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#27 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 17, 2022 1:29 pm

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Classifiable ofc.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#28 Postby KirbyDude25 » Sat Sep 17, 2022 2:05 pm


Not just classifiable, but clearly TS intensity. We'll be seeing TS Madeline in a couple hours
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#29 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Sep 17, 2022 3:36 pm

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Re: EPAC: MADELINE - Tropical Storm

#30 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Sep 17, 2022 4:11 pm

Yup, now TS Madeline.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Madeline Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
300 PM MDT Sat Sep 17 2022

...TROPICAL STORM MADELINE FORMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 106.9W
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Madeline was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 106.9 West. Madeline is
drifting toward the north near 1 mph (2 km/h). A faster northward
motion is expected by tonight, followed by a slow counter-clockwise
turn toward the west through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is forecast for the next day or so, with
fluctuations in intensity possible after that.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Madeline will affect portions of the
southwest coast of Mexico for the next few days. High surf
associated with Madeline will spread northward and begin to affect
the coast of Baja California late this weekend or early next week.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Re: EPAC: MADELINE - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Sep 17, 2022 9:29 pm

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Re: EPAC: MADELINE - Tropical Storm

#32 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Sep 18, 2022 10:40 am

9
WTPZ44 KNHC 181436
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Madeline Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
900 AM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022

A large burst of deep convection has developed southwest of
Madeline's center during the past few hours, with another broken
line of convection oriented parallel to the southwestern coast of
Mexico. The current intensity remains 40 kt as a blend of the
latest Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB, and the
latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate.

Madeline is located along the southwestern periphery of a large
mid-tropospheric high, and to the southeast of a deep-layer trough
to the west of California. The initial motion is northward, or
350/9 kt, but this steering set up should cause Madeline to
gradually turn northwestward later today, and then
west-northwestward and westward away from the coast of Mexico from
36 hours and beyond. The track guidance is tightly clustered
through 48 hours, but there is more spread after that, with a few
models keeping Madeline too strong and maintaining a northwestward
motion. These models are discounted, and the official forecast
continues to show a westward bend, following the GFS, ECMWF, and
model consensus solutions.

Madeline's broad circulation, and continued moderate to strong
easterly shear, argue against much, if any, intensification during
the next day or so. The official forecast still allows for the
possibility for some minimal strengthening during the next 24 hours
while Madeline is over warm waters. After 24 hours, the storm is
forecast to begin moving across the cold wake left behind by former
Hurricane Kay, which is expected to induce weakening. The updated
NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous
prediction, and it now shows Madeline degenerating into a
post-tropical remnant low by 60 hours, when model simulated
satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF indicate that all deep
convection should have dissipated.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rains from Madeline are expected for portions of coastal
southwestern Mexico into Monday. This rainfall may produce flash
and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher
coastal terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible for the southwestern
coast of Mexico from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes today and
tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 18.5N 106.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 19.5N 107.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 20.4N 108.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 21.0N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 21.3N 111.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 21.5N 112.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1200Z 21.6N 113.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1200Z 21.4N 116.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1200Z 21.1N 119.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: MADELINE - Tropical Storm

#33 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Sep 18, 2022 10:43 am

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Re: EPAC: MADELINE - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Sep 18, 2022 11:45 am

Looking better but still a ways to go.
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Re: EPAC: MADELINE - Tropical Storm

#35 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Sep 18, 2022 3:50 pm

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Re: EPAC: MADELINE - Tropical Storm

#36 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Sep 18, 2022 9:41 pm

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Re: EPAC: MADELINE - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 19, 2022 9:52 am

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Re: EPAC: MADELINE - Tropical Storm

#38 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 19, 2022 11:02 am

LLC is still misplaced east of the main convection. But it's getting closer to stacking up.
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Re: EPAC: MADELINE - Tropical Storm

#39 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 19, 2022 12:25 pm

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Madeline Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
300 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022

Madeline still has an asymmetric convective pattern, with a large
burst of deep convection mainly confined to the southwestern
quadrant due to deep-layer easterly shear. Visible satellite
images also suggest that there are several low-level swirls
rotating around a common center. Intensity estimates have not
changed since this morning, so the initial intensity remains 40 kt.
Moderate to strong easterly shear is expected to continue for the
next couple of days, and Madeline is also forecast to reach the
cold ocean wake of former Hurricane Kay by late Monday. There is
some chance for slight strengthening before Madeline reaches the
cold wake, but overall little change in intensity is forecast
during the next 24 hours. Weakening is anticipated after that
time, and model-simulated satellite imagery indicate that Madeline
should lose all of its deep convection, and hence become
post-tropical, by 48 hours.

The initial motion is now north-northwestward, or 335/7 kt. Track
model guidance is in good agreement that Madeline will turn
west-northwestward on Monday, and then westward by Tuesday night,
when the weakening cyclone will come under the influence of
lower-level steering winds. The new NHC track forecast, which is
just a bit to the southwest of the morning prediction, anticipates
that Madeline will turn and move away from the coast of Mexico,
including the southern Baja California peninsula, during the next 48
hours.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rains from Madeline are expected for portions of coastal
southwestern Mexico into Monday. This rainfall may produce flash
and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher
coastal terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible for the southwestern
coast of Mexico from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes through this
evening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 18.8N 107.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 19.7N 108.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 20.4N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 20.9N 110.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 21.3N 112.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 21/0600Z 21.5N 113.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1800Z 21.6N 114.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1800Z 21.4N 117.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1800Z 21.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN
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Re: EPAC: MADELINE - Tropical Storm

#40 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 19, 2022 1:15 pm

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Madeline Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
900 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022

Madeline has increased in organization over the past several hours.
The low-level center is now embedded underneath the northeastern
portion of a mass of deep convection with cloud tops as cold as -85
degrees Celsius. A recent SSMIS overpass also shows a well-defined
curved band within the western semicircle. The latest subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are both T-3.0, and
support raising the initial intensity to 45 kt for this advisory.

There is a small window of opportunity through Monday morning for
Madeline to strengthen a little more, as the storm begins to move
along the shear vector and remains over warm waters and within a
favorable thermodynamic environment. However, by late Monday the
cyclone is forecast to reach the 26 degrees C isotherm and begin to
move into a progressively drier and more stable environment.
Therefore, steady weakening is forecast to begin by that time. Both
the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite suggest that Madeline will
become devoid of deep convection by Tuesday and degenerate into a
remnant low. The latest NHC intensity forecast was increased through
the next 24 h, but is the same as the previous advisory thereafter.

Madeline is continuing its slow turn to the left, and is now moving
northwestward at 8 kt to the southwest of a mid-level ridge. This
motion is beginning to increase the cyclone's distance from the
coast of southwestern Mexico. Based on this and surface
observations, the government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Watch that was in effect for the portion of that coastline.
Model guidance is in very good agreement that Madeline will turn to
the west-northwest on Monday night and then west by Tuesday as the
weakening cyclone becomes steered by the surrounding low-level flow.
The combination of this track and a contracting wind field should
keep tropical-storm-force winds well offshore of the southern Baja
California peninsula as the system passes to the south through
Monday night. The latest NHC track forecast is very little changed
from the previous one and lies near the various multi-model
consensus tracks.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rains from Madeline are expected for portions of coastal
southwestern Mexico into Monday. This rainfall may produce flash and
urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher
coastal terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 19.3N 107.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 20.1N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 20.6N 110.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 21.0N 111.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 21.4N 112.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 21/1200Z 21.6N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0000Z 21.6N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0000Z 21.2N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/0000Z 20.8N 120.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto
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