ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[InfernoFlameCat]

IR is really showing that EWRC/eyewall meld now. I might wake up to a really nice big eye on visible imagery tomorrow morning, assuming the process doesn’t get interrupted by a bit of shear or dry air and cripple Fiona.

There is no EWRC imminent. I do not see the eye filling. its still warming.

[wx98]

An argument could be made for Fiona being a Category 4 now. Pressure still dropping and is within Cat 4 values. Looks like she's moving slow too.

Technically the highest SFMR was 1kt below the Cat 4 threshold so makes sense not to up the wind. Probably came down to a judgement call either way.

I agree with being conservative since they only found that value on one pass (out of the many they made over the same general area).

[skyline385]

https://i.postimg.cc/3NLgVbWW/9-EC10-CDE-DAB8-4-AF0-A2-AE-E357-F3608954.jpg

Those are wind gusts as FL winds and SFMR don't support it, drop probably got caught in a mesovortex

[St0rmTh0r]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1572221624614518784 fiona footage!

[Teban54]

[ElectricStorm]

Recon is starting their first pass. I'm guessing they will find similar numbers to the previous mission

[ElectricStorm]

Recon is starting their first pass. I'm guessing they will find similar numbers to the previous mission

Welp 128kt FL in SE quad, probably a Cat 4 now

[CrazyC83]

Pressure has probably dropped into the low 940s as well. 115 kt seems reasonable.

[ElectricStorm]

Eye drop 942/7, supports 942

[PavelGaborik10]

IR is really showing that EWRC/eyewall meld now. I might wake up to a really nice big eye on visible imagery tomorrow morning, assuming the process doesn’t get interrupted by a bit of shear or dry air and cripple Fiona.

Why do you keep insisting an EWRC is currently underway? Recon doesn't suggest this and neither does satellite.

[CrazyC83]

No indications of an ERC in the aircraft data. The storm is getting larger, but that's because of the expanding wind field on its own, likely a product of starting to reach the initial trough.

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...FIONA BECOMES A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE WHILE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 71.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF NORTH CAICOS ISLAND
ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

[galaxy401]

There we go, she made it to Cat 4. Not bad for a storm that originally had no model support at all.

[cheezyWXguy]

IR is really showing that EWRC/eyewall meld now. I might wake up to a really nice big eye on visible imagery tomorrow morning, assuming the process doesn’t get interrupted by a bit of shear or dry air and cripple Fiona.

Why do you keep insisting an EWRC is currently underway? Recon doesn't suggest this and neither does satellite.

While an EWRC doesn’t appear to have occurred there was some reason to believe one might start, back when Aspen made that post. Outside of the current eyewall, there were up to two additional bands where local wind maxima were observed (one just outside the eyewall, one associated with the band to the NE), though neither was especially prominent. When storms take on a structure like that, it’s kind of a luck of the draw as to whether a cycle would eventually occur, or whether it would fail, and we’ve seen plenty of storms do each.

[Teban54]

Yay Fiona, you did it!

Looking better and better, but some SW shear is still evident.

[Sciencerocks]

[MarioProtVI]

Yay Fiona, you did it!

Looking better and better, but some SW shear is still evident.
https://i.postimg.cc/3xwp7cPx/goes16-ir-07-L-202209210322.gif

Clearly not an issue though as it’s been able to become a C4.

[Hammy]

Yay Fiona, you did it!

Looking better and better, but some SW shear is still evident.
https://i.postimg.cc/3xwp7cPx/goes16-ir-07-L-202209210322.gif

Clearly not an issue though as it’s been able to become a C4.

It's probably limiting the rate of intensification, probably preventing it from RI-ing to a Cat 5, but not much else.

[PavelGaborik10]

IR is really showing that EWRC/eyewall meld now. I might wake up to a really nice big eye on visible imagery tomorrow morning, assuming the process doesn’t get interrupted by a bit of shear or dry air and cripple Fiona.

Why do you keep insisting an EWRC is currently underway? Recon doesn't suggest this and neither does satellite.

While an EWRC doesn’t appear to have occurred there was some reason to believe one might start, back when Aspen made that post. Outside of the current eyewall, there were up to two additional bands where local wind maxima were observed (one just outside the eyewall, one associated with the band to the NE), though neither was especially prominent. When storms take on a structure like that, it’s kind of a luck of the draw as to whether a cycle would eventually occur, or whether it would fail, and we’ve seen plenty of storms do each.

I understand the process, what I don't understand is that when the post was made the satellite appearance did not match the post he made, nor was there a significant enough double wind maxima that would suggest an EWRC was actively underway.

This has been an ongoing theme for 24 hours or so for that particular poster, and it's yet to hold any weight.

[TheDreamTraveler]

May not be the prettiest cat 4 but can't really complain given this entire season so far lol