ATL: FIONA - Models

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chris_fit
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ATL: FIONA - Models

#1 Postby chris_fit » Tue Sep 13, 2022 8:16 am

Didn't see a Model Thread for 96L Yet.

Post away.
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ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#2 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 13, 2022 8:18 am

SFLcane wrote:FYI, Eps also just about dropped it.

Now that is hilarious. Still some members though.

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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#3 Postby BobHarlem » Tue Sep 13, 2022 8:20 am

AutoPenalti wrote:
SFLcane wrote:FYI, Eps also just about dropped it.

Now that is hilarious. Still some members though.

https://i.imgur.com/gxmmZme.gif


The white background frame is yesterdays 6z, but I'd imagine today's will look similar though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#4 Postby chris_fit » Tue Sep 13, 2022 8:20 am

00Z CMC
Image

00Z ECMF
Image

06Z GFS
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#5 Postby Spacecoast » Tue Sep 13, 2022 9:31 am

0z ECMF: Stronger members north, weaker west. Operational looks to strengthen E of Bahamas...

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#6 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 13, 2022 10:19 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#7 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 13, 2022 10:22 am

12Z ICON is a little further south than recent runs with it just south of PR at 114 hours and at 1003 mb (a bit weaker than recent runs). Also, whereas the 6Z EPS is still pretty active with this, it isn't as active as the 3 prior runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#8 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 13, 2022 10:45 am

LarryWx wrote:12Z ICON is a little further south than recent runs with it just south of PR at 114 hours and at 1003 mb (a bit weaker than recent runs). Also, whereas the 6Z EPS is still pretty active with this, it isn't as active as the 3 prior runs.


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12z ICON
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#9 Postby skyline385 » Tue Sep 13, 2022 10:54 am

12Z ICON looks like it’s going to get trapped by the building ridge at the end of the run.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#10 Postby chris_fit » Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:04 am

Pretty much nadda on the 12Z GFS @ 120 hours
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#11 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:07 am

chris_fit wrote:Pretty much nadda on the 12Z GFS @ 120 hours


This is wave is a big ole nada. 12z guidance will probably drop everything.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#12 Postby BobHarlem » Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:10 am

The 12Z GFS and 12Z Canadian, so far, are plowing it through the Greater Antilles (including Cuba). Probably not good for Flooding on some these islands.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#13 Postby chris_fit » Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:13 am

12Z CMC
Crashes into The Shredder

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#14 Postby skyline385 » Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:17 am

It looks like the GFS was again the first to forecast the track into which all the models eventually caved in.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#15 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:18 am

This is why I prefer vorticity plots for developing systems. Follow the vorticity signal to see what a model is thinking. GFS takes it south or partially over Hispaniola and then south of Cuba.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#16 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:20 am

12z UKMET ceased tracking 96L after one plot.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#17 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:22 am

tolakram wrote:This is why I prefer vorticity plots for developing systems. Follow the vorticity signal to see what a model is thinking. GFS takes it south or partially over Hispaniola and then south of Cuba.

https://i.imgur.com/JnGQ0gn.gif

But look at the EPAC, it just wants to develop anything with a ball in it.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#18 Postby chris_fit » Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:26 am

CMC Is biting once it gets in the Extreme E Gulf - Riding FLs West Coast

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#19 Postby BobHarlem » Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:28 am

Canadian / CMC GEM gets it into the Gulf after Cuba... Which it did on 0z, but in the earlier run it never went into Cuba.

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Last edited by BobHarlem on Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:31 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#20 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:29 am

AutoPenalti wrote:
tolakram wrote:This is why I prefer vorticity plots for developing systems. Follow the vorticity signal to see what a model is thinking. GFS takes it south or partially over Hispaniola and then south of Cuba.

https://i.imgur.com/JnGQ0gn.gif

But look at the EPAC, it just wants to develop anything with a ball in it.


Not sure I follow. I'm talking about this wave only, the EPAC and gyre problem the GFS has isn't something new, nor is the issue with developing instant hurricanes from the tail end of fronts. GFS under 192 hours, really under 5 days, isn't the worst model.
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