ATL: FIONA - Models

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#541 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:52 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:
PavelGaborik10 wrote:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022092018/gfs_mslp_uv850_secan_16.png

Interested that nobody is discussing the fact that the GFS & Euro seem to want to wipe Nova Scotia off the map for good.

The capture is very similar to Igor/Sandy, though it's looking to be a significantly stronger storm than either.


Wow, I'm right at the southwest corner of New Brunswick less than five miles from the Maine border and even my area is in the purple, looks very nasty. :eek:


I'm likely going to travel up to Eastern CB for this one.

Lowest pressure ever recorded in Canada was 940 MB I believe in Newfoundland, this could be an all timer.

Stay safe man!
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#542 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:55 pm

I think something around 930-935 is very reasonable. Already intense storm and powerful trough interaction will deepen it more.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#543 Postby brad512 » Wed Sep 21, 2022 12:01 am

I knew a few were showing it in the 920s up here but that seems a bit extreme. Something around 930-940 seems reasonable. I remember Dorian was in the 950s just after ET transition. I am in Sackville NB and can't make it to CB so I'll probably only see 970-980 at most with the current track but I'm still interested and keep watching.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#544 Postby somethingfunny » Wed Sep 21, 2022 1:42 am

0z Euro has 957mb in the northern Gulf of St Lawrence... From 929mb the frame prior.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#545 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Wed Sep 21, 2022 1:55 am

somethingfunny wrote:0z Euro has 957mb in the northern Gulf of St Lawrence... From 929mb the frame prior.


Image

Euro comes to shore in Nova Scotia sub 930 MB as a worst case scenario hybrid bomb.

Seems unlikely to transpire pressure wise.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#546 Postby somethingfunny » Wed Sep 21, 2022 2:16 am

PavelGaborik10 wrote:
somethingfunny wrote:0z Euro has 957mb in the northern Gulf of St Lawrence... From 929mb the frame prior.


https://scontent-yyz1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.15752-9/307511982_428070982552461_2432242789155595451_n.jpg?stp=dst-jpg_s1080x2048&_nc_cat=101&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=ae9488&_nc_ohc=RtEvRG0Be1IAX_mLWlE&_nc_ht=scontent-yyz1-1.xx&oh=03_AVKgTBUYbrB2gvlV7BUk3JAJ-sfN72vtt5kP80d26QYMbw&oe=635181FC

Euro comes to shore in Nova Scotia sub 930 MB as a worst case scenario hybrid bomb.

Seems unlikely to transpire pressure wise.


King ICON is a very similar look...931mb landfall on eastern Nova Scotia. I don't like the leftward bend in that track during the secondary deepening phase
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#547 Postby shaneomac » Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:28 am

This is looking to be a monster once it reaches me in cape breton how strong is the question. Very low pressures could be biblical event . I can finally get my storm!
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#548 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 21, 2022 6:02 am

0Z Euro
Image
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#549 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 21, 2022 6:04 am

Image
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#550 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 21, 2022 6:05 am

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#551 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:11 am

Speaking of the future a Hazardous Weather Outlook has already been issued for all Maine regarding the winds it is very early for such in my experience with winter storms for example. Looks like this one could be something special :double: -

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Caribou ME
739 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-221145-
Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-
Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-
Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-
Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-
Coastal Washington-Southern Piscataquis-Northern Washington-
739 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine,
Coastal DownEast Maine, Far Eastern Maine, Far Northern Maine,
Interior DownEast Maine, North Woods Maine and Penobscot Valley
Maine.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The potential exists for strong gusty winds Friday into the weekend,
as a powerful low pressure system associated with Hurricane Fiona
tracks into the Canadian Maritimes. Gusts up to 50 mph are possible
with this system, which could lead to downed trees and power outages.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

$$

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=MEZ006&warncounty=MEC003&firewxzone=MEZ006&local_place1=Carys%20Mills%20ME&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook&lat=46.1019&lon=-67.8728#.Yysar3bMJD8
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#552 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:00 pm

12z GFS has this getting to 928mb (!) near Canada. That would have to be some sort of record right?
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#553 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Wed Sep 21, 2022 7:01 pm

ElectricStorm wrote:12z GFS has this getting to 928mb (!) near Canada. That would have to be some sort of record right?


Yes.

the Canadian record for the lowest pressure observed belongs to Newfoundland's St. Anthony, dropping to 940.2 mb way back in 1977.

Seems likely a new record will transpire
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#554 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 21, 2022 8:14 pm

shaneomac wrote:This is looking to be a monster once it reaches me in cape breton how strong is the question. Very low pressures could be biblical event . I can finally get my storm!


Yes the European model predicts a landfall very close to Cape Breton at 928 mb and over 100 mph winds. Batten down the hatches. Could be your worst storm in a lifetime known for an area that gets their fair share of cold core deep storms. North Atlantic unseasonably warm SSTs along with baroclinic enhancement might make this storm incredibly intense.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#555 Postby shaneomac » Wed Sep 21, 2022 8:30 pm

ElectricStorm wrote:12z GFS has this getting to 928mb (!) near Canada. That would have to be some sort of record right?

Yes it would ! , and im in the path of it going to be insane on satelite , and impacts would most likely be bad .
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#556 Postby shaneomac » Wed Sep 21, 2022 8:32 pm

ronjon wrote:
shaneomac wrote:This is looking to be a monster once it reaches me in cape breton how strong is the question. Very low pressures could be biblical event . I can finally get my storm!


Yes the European model predicts a landfall very close to Cape Breton at 928 mb and over 100 mph winds. Batten down the hatches. Could be your worst storm in a lifetime known for an area that gets their fair share of cold core deep storms. North Atlantic unseasonably warm SSTs along with baroclinic enhancement might make this storm incredibly intense.


Yes as a weather fan , this is going to be urnreal to see unfold , i got gas jugs filled all the necessities for a power outage , ill be sure chasing the storm tho .
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#557 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:19 am

The HAFS has Fiona as likely one of the strongest Bomb Cyclones ever recorded, 916 mb and 154 mph. :eek:

EDIT: Lowest pressure is 910.8 mb, but jeez! :eek:
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#558 Postby shaneomac » Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:54 am

Iceresistance wrote:The HAFS has Fiona as likely one of the strongest Bomb Cyclones ever recorded, 916 mb and 154 mph. :eek:

EDIT: Lowest pressure is 910.8 mb, but jeez! :eek:

Thats insanity !
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#559 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 22, 2022 12:56 pm

HWRF peaks this at 150 mph, then 88.8 knots (102 mph) and 913.6 mb at landfall. :eek:
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#560 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 22, 2022 1:29 pm

Okay then, the HAFS model needs to be thrown out of the window for now! :eek:
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