ATL: FIONA - Models

[cycloneye]

18z GEFS tracks recurve.

[AutoPenalti]

18z GEFS tracks recurve.

https://i.imgur.com/r2jQsRH.png

Earl 2.0

[LarryWx]

Once again, the UKMET (0Z) does nothing with this tropically:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 47.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.09.2022 0 15.7N 47.3W 1011 24
1200UTC 14.09.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

[SouthFLTropics]

Talk about consistency… the 12z and 00z CMC runs appear to be almost identical.


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[ElectricStorm]

Lol GFS... it has something NE of the Bahamas and then just yeets it SW towards FL at hour 270. Can't tell if it's 96L or not but either way that's not going to happen

[AtlanticWind]

HWRF has a strong hurricane north of P.R.

[Keldeo1997]

Today I learned that a Korean Model exists. And its not pretty for south Fl

[BobHarlem]

Interesting how the 6z goes from nada at the 18z yesterday with energy the gulf to this. There's some very marginal things going on. 0z euro now recurves it through the east Bahamas and gets close to Bermuda on the west side. And CMC hits the Florida Keys then goes for Houston. Clear as mud.

6z gfs

0z cmc

0z euro

[Blown Away]

06z GFS... TS into NC then rakes NE CONUS,

00z ECMWF... TS into GA's then recurve.

00z CMC... H into Keys then MH into TX.

00z HWRF doing it's thing with a MH just N of PR.

[aspen]

06z HWRF is more in line with the other hurricane models: no development before the islands, and a further south track heading straight towards Hispaniola. This could be very wrong if 96L has indeed become a TD already.

[tolakram]

I think we're actually seeing some pretty good consistency even though there are radically different outcomes. As usual it depends on where the storm tracks. Over the islands and weak, more chances for a gulf storm. Just north of the islands and some development, then it goes north. If you removed the islands I think we would see very similar tracks from all the models of a slowly developing storm and a recurve before Florida. The "fun" with storm in this area is how Hispaniola can really mess with the storm tracks. My amateur interpretation.

[jlauderdal]

I think we're actually seeing some pretty good consistency even though there are radically different outcomes. As usual it depends on where the storm tracks. Over the islands and weak, more chances for a gulf storm. Just north of the islands and some development, then it goes north. If you removed the islands I think we would see very similar tracks from all the models of a slowly developing storm and a recurve before Florida. The "fun" with storm in this area is how Hispaniola can really mess with the storm tracks. My amateur interpretation.

We have seen many different outcomes in the Hispanola region over the years that the models don't resolve correctly. Strengthening, weakening, and course change are all possible when getting into that area. Weak systems can intensify in this area. A few miles makes all the difference here as to what actually happens as systems transit this region. A little offshore, a little onshore, north side, southside of the islands...it all matters as to what happens to whom downstream.

[toad strangler]

I think we're actually seeing some pretty good consistency even though there are radically different outcomes. As usual it depends on where the storm tracks. Over the islands and weak, more chances for a gulf storm. Just north of the islands and some development, then it goes north. If you removed the islands I think we would see very similar tracks from all the models of a slowly developing storm and a recurve before Florida. The "fun" with storm in this area is how Hispaniola can really mess with the storm tracks. My amateur interpretation.

We have seen many different outcomes in the Hispanola region over the years that the models don't resolve correctly. Strengthening, weakening, and course change are all possible when getting into that area. Weak systems can intensify in this area. A few miles makes all the difference here as to what actually happens as systems transit this region. A little offshore, a little onshore, north side, southside of the islands...it all matters as to what happens to whom downstream.

Not to mention 500mb IF you have a strengthening system as previously mentioned is always a mystery until close in hours to see where an escape hatch develops or does not for re-curve. But, this is all hearsay until we see what is actually on the table once the GA's are in play.

[jlauderdal]

I think we're actually seeing some pretty good consistency even though there are radically different outcomes. As usual it depends on where the storm tracks. Over the islands and weak, more chances for a gulf storm. Just north of the islands and some development, then it goes north. If you removed the islands I think we would see very similar tracks from all the models of a slowly developing storm and a recurve before Florida. The "fun" with storm in this area is how Hispaniola can really mess with the storm tracks. My amateur interpretation.

We have seen many different outcomes in the Hispanola region over the years that the models don't resolve correctly. Strengthening, weakening, and course change are all possible when getting into that area. Weak systems can intensify in this area. A few miles makes all the difference here as to what actually happens as systems transit this region. A little offshore, a little onshore, north side, southside of the islands...it all matters as to what happens to whom downstream.

Not to mention 500mb IF you have a strengthening system as previously mentioned is always a mystery until close in hours to see where an escape hatch develops or does not for re-curve. But, this is all hearsay until we see what is actually on the table once the GA's are in play.

Hurricane Debby(sp?) circa 2002 was poised to nail sofla as a major, ran right into Hispaniola and in less than 6 hours nearly full dissipation; it was amazing as preps were fully underway. We have seen systems get ventilated around Hispanola too, we have seen systems bounce around off the land masses, we have seen systems not be affected at all and keep moving as they were and keep strengthening... anything is possible and the models cant be trusted in that area, anything can happen.

[Jr0d]

I think we're actually seeing some pretty good consistency even though there are radically different outcomes. As usual it depends on where the storm tracks. Over the islands and weak, more chances for a gulf storm. Just north of the islands and some development, then it goes north.

Seems like the a strong correlation between storms that interact with Hispaniola and a Florida east coast landfall.

At this range, its impossible to tell what if any interaction Hispaniola will play, so its impossible to know the risk for Florida..just as you were saying.

While my location bias should make me think the CMC is right, I think it is much more likely this storm will make the turn north as the GFS and EURO suggest.

[aspen]

06z HWRF keeps 96L south and weak, finally getting a TC in about 5 days just south of Hispaniola. It looks to be heading due west and could bend up south of Cuba and into the WCar if the run went out another couple of days.

[Blown Away]

12z... Seems NE Caribbean/GA's are in line for at least TS conditions IMO.

[SconnieCane]

06z HWRF keeps 96L south and weak, finally getting a TC in about 5 days just south of Hispaniola. It looks to be heading due west and could bend up south of Cuba and into the WCar if the run went out another couple of days.

What a radically different outcome from 00Z. That model is pure entertainment value beyond 48 hours (and even that is pushing it) IMO.

[tolakram]

6Z Euro

[Nimbus]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/752166055501365319/1019393844338495518/unknown.png

Today I learned that a Korean Model exists. And its not pretty for south Fl

They run that model on the Guru and Maru which ranked 27th and 28th respectively in the world of supercomputers. You aren't going to beat it playing blitz chess with an ELO of 2700..

Maybe computer resources need to be utilized like reinsurance pools are used to cover property damages from major hurricanes? We did simple exposure modeling before hurricane Andrew that showed where the insurance companies would be vulnerable.