ATL: FIONA - Models

[jlauderdal]

Looks like East Coast shield wins again

We had Tropical Storm conditions a couple of times yesterday into last night, does that count towards hurricane season?

Lol! I guess... I recorded a few gusts top 60mph with my weather station a few months ago up here in lake worth so there is my hurricane season.

That might be all you get this season and that's a win. At least we have had rain on the coast this week, the rainy season has been very very quiet.

[LarryWx]

 A safe miss of the CONUS is easily the best bet on the 12Z EPS. However, fwiw, it has 6 of the 51 members (only 12%) hit the CONUS as a TS+: 2 ME, 1 SC, and 3  FL (2 far south and 1 Melbourne) that then go into the Gulf. The 0Z had a few more than 6 hit.

[AubreyStorm]

[RevanTheJedi96]

This has been a very quiet Hurricane season. Starting to think we aren't gonna see any US landfalls this year. Fiona had like one day where it scared people and now it's very unlikely it'll hit lol

[Category5Kaiju]

This has been a very quiet Hurricane season. Starting to think we aren't gonna see any US landfalls this year. Fiona had like one day where it scared people and now it's very unlikely it'll hit lol

While that would be very ideal and pleasant, keep in mind that we still have October left, and this is the time of the year where you can get far W. Atlantic threats that curve northward toward W. Florida. Although I agree with the idea that areas like the W. Gulf may have escaped this year in terms of impacts.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Euro has this hit Bermuda as a sub 950mb hurricane. Bermuda could be in serious danger. It also shows how much spread this system has in where it could go.

[skyline385]

Euro has this hit Bermuda as a sub 950mb hurricane. Bermuda could be in serious danger. It also shows how much spread this system has in where it could go.

Read in the Earl thread that Bermuda has extremely strict building codes to deal with this.

Here’s a random article from 2016 on it

https://www.rms.com/blog/2016/11/16/shr ... resilience

And this as well

https://www.bermuda4u.com/essential/climate/hurricanes/

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[aspen]

18z GFS really spins this up when it’s passing over and away from the NE DR coast in a few days. I’m wondering if, instead of convective feedback issues, the GFS is showing the potential for the terrain of Hispaniola to tighten up Fiona’s circulation.

[Nimbus]

18Z GFS resolves the Hispaniola dilemma by skipping northwest through the Mona passage.
Leaves Puerto Rico exposed to an intensifying storm.
With the kind of speed the GFS is forecasting there would not be enough time for the ridging to build back in.

[InfernoFlameCat]

It all depends on how fast Fiona moves. The slower, the more likely it goes west.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Models starting to look fishy. Bet on it.

Do you see those little islands to the left of Fiona? People live there. Not just fish, but people. People also live in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, The Bahamas, and Bermuda.

We all know I was referring to the US. I certainly am not implying people do not live out there. For us in the US, it is looking fishy. Thanks.

A lot of people here aren't from the US. We're not the center of the universe. Thanks.

[blp]

GFS continues to miss in the short term.

[floridasun]

GFS continues to miss in the short term. I predict this heads up the spine of Hispaniola.

https://i.ibb.co/cTwhwGC/AVNO-trendtrack-0.png

what did gfs miss?

[InfernoFlameCat]

GFS continues to miss in the short term. I predict this heads up the spine of Hispaniola.

https://i.ibb.co/cTwhwGC/AVNO-trendtrack-0.png

what did gfs miss?

It has been having a north bias. Its too far north compared to the actual storm. Its underestimating the ridging.

[Pelicane]

0z GFS has this making landfall in Puerto Rico at or near hurricane intensity.

[CrazyC83]

16.1N is the current latitude, so there has been a clear north bias in the forecast. That could have a significant impact in forecasts down the line.

[Landy]

Latest HMON and HWRF both bomb this out to the mid 960s south of Puerto Rico. HMON is west of HWRF, clipping the edge.

[CrazyC83]

Latest HMON and HWRF both bomb this out to the mid 960s south of Puerto Rico. HMON is west of HWRF, clipping the edge.

Since it's farther south, there should be less land interaction with Puerto Rico (at least for the core of the storm - the rainfall is still a major concern). That should make it stronger towards Hispaniola.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1571026598719295488

[PavelGaborik10]

Lol @ the Euro sending a 930 MB nuke into Nova Scotia/Maine.

An all timer right there.