EPAC: LESTER - Remnants

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Re: EPAC: LESTER - Tropical Storm

#21 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Sep 16, 2022 9:22 pm

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Re: EPAC: LESTER - Tropical Storm

#22 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 17, 2022 12:23 am

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 170237
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Lester Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022
1000 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

Convection associated with Lester has become more concentrated to
the southwest of the center in a sheared convective burst.
However, this has not yet resulted in significant strengthening, as
the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates
remain near 35 kt. Thus, the initial intensity remains 35 kt.

The storm continues to move northwestward or 315/10 kt. The
cyclone should continue to move in this general direction as it is
steered in the southeasterly flow between a cyclonic gyre to its
west and a mid-level ridge ridge over Texas and northern Mexico. On
the forecast track, the center of Lester should cross the coast of
Mexico Saturday afternoon or evening, then continue to move inland
until the system dissipates. The new official forecast track is
little changed from the previous track.

Lester is being affected by about 20 kt of northeasterly vertical
wind shear, and moderate shear should continue until landfall.
However, the combination of very warm sea surface temperatures and
a moist environment should allow some strengthening, and the
intensity forecast shows a peak intensity of 45 kt near landfall.
After landfall, Lester should rapidly weaken over the mountains of
Mexico, and the system is expected to dissipate between 36-48 h.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Lester will reach portions of coastal southern
Mexico during the next few hours, increasing in coverage and
intensity Saturday and Saturday night, spreading farther west on
Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along
with possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread along the coast
of southern Mexico tonight and Saturday within the Tropical Storm
Warning area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 14.8N 97.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 15.9N 99.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 17.4N 100.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/1200Z 19.1N 102.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: LESTER - Tropical Storm

#23 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Sep 17, 2022 2:26 am

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Re: EPAC: LESTER - Tropical Storm

#24 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Sep 17, 2022 11:30 am

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Re: EPAC: LESTER - Tropical Storm

#25 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 17, 2022 1:35 pm

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Lester Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022
400 AM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022

Lester has become slightly better organized overnight. Deep
convection has continuously pulsed west and southwest (in the
downshear quadrants) of the estimated low-level circulation through
the night with cloud top temperatures below -80 degrees C.
Subjective and objective Dvorak classifications range between 35-45
kt and the initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt to
represent a blend of these estimates.

The storm is moving northwestward at about 9 kt in the southeasterly
flow between a cyclonic gyre to the west and a mid-level ridge
centered over Texas and northern Mexico. This general motion is
expected to continue until landfall. The official forecast track
has changed little from the previous advisory. The center of
Lester is expected to reach the coast of Mexico later this afternoon
or evening and then dissipate as it moves inland on Sunday.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to remain the same
until the storm moves inland. Lester is over very warm waters and
surrounded by high environmental moisture. However, the storm
continues to experience moderate northeasterly shear that should
persist until landfall. Combined, these factors will likely allow
for some slight strengthening. The NHC forecast still shows a peak
of 45 kt as Lester reaches the coast. The cyclone should rapidly
weaken over the high terrain shortly thereafter and dissipate within
a couple of days.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Lester will continue for portions of coastal
southern Mexico into Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash and
urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher
coastal terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread along the coast
of southwestern Mexico today within the Tropical Storm Warning area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 15.4N 98.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 16.7N 99.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 18.1N 101.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 18/1800Z 19.6N 102.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci
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Re: EPAC: LESTER - Tropical Storm

#26 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 17, 2022 1:37 pm

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Lester Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022
1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022

Lester's overnight improvement in organization was short lived.
Several microwave overpasses during the last few hours show a
distinct lack of organized convective banding, and little evidence
that a well-defined circulation still exists. It is possible that
close proximity to land has severely disrupted Lester's structure
since it has been very difficult to locate the cyclone's center in
traditional IR or Visible imagery this morning. With the center of
Lester well-hidden below higher clouds, the uncertainty in the
initial position and motion are unusually high, which also
translates to high uncertainty in the intensity estimate since the
Dvorak technique is very dependent on center location. The initial
intensity of 35 kt is based on a blend of recent Dvorak fixes, but
should be considered within that uncertain context.

Significant strengthening is not supported by any guidance and
appears unlikely with Lester so close to land, so the biggest threat
will be very heavy rain leading to flash and urban flooding across
portions of the southwest coast of Mexico. Mudslides will also be
possible in areas of high terrain. That threat will exist over a
wide area regardless of Lester's position or intensity, and will
persist today even after Lester dissipates. Users are therefore
urged to not put much weight into the specifics of the NHC track and
intensity forecasts, which shows Lester moving inland and
dissipating later today. This scenario is supported by all of the
dynamical models, with some (like the ECMWF, UKMET and CMC models)
indicating that Lester may have already moved inland.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Lester will continue for portions of coastal
southern Mexico into Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash and
urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher
coastal terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 16.0N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 17.3N 99.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

NNNN
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Re: EPAC: LESTER - Tropical Storm

#27 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 17, 2022 1:41 pm

I don’t think this is a TC anymore or was at the time of landfall. Lester briefly organized overnight as it moved northward but despite the good upper level environment, Lester’s interaction with the broad monsoon gyre, likely causing the low level circulation to broaden and then open up into a trough.
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Re: EPAC: LESTER - Tropical Storm

#28 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Sep 17, 2022 3:33 pm

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Re: EPAC: LESTER - Remnants

#29 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 17, 2022 7:20 pm

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 172035
TCDEP3

Remnants Of Lester Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022
400 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022

Satellite imagery and surface observations from Mexico indicate that
the surface circulation of Lester has dissipated. The center of
Lester has been difficult to locate today, and it is possible that
the cyclone moved inland faster and farther east than indicated by
NHC's operational estimates. A more detailed analysis of Lester's
position near the coast of Mexico will be conducted during the
post-storm analysis. Heavy rain will continue to be a threat along
the southwest coast of Mexico for the next few days. For additional
information on heavy rainfall and flooding, please see products
issued by your national meteorological service.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Lester will continue for portions of coastal
southern Mexico into Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash and
urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher
coastal terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 16.5N 98.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF LESTER
12H 18/0600Z 17.7N...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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