EPAC: LESTER - Remnants

[cycloneye]

EP, 95, 2022091418, , BEST, 0, 128N, 953W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 70, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022, SPAWNINVEST, ep742022 to ep952022,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/?C=M;O=D

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep952022.dat

[cycloneye]

2. Near the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms a couple of
hundred miles off the coast of southern Mexico is associated with a
broad area of of low pressure. Gradual development of this system
is possible during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form before reaching the coast of southern or southwestern
Mexico, and possibly moving inland, over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Extratropical94]

50/60

2. Near the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a
couple of hundred miles off the coast of southern Mexico is
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Gradual development
of this system is possible during the next couple of days or so, and
a tropical depression could form before reaching the coast of
southern or southwestern Mexico, and possibly moving inland, over
the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[Extratropical94]

70/80

2. Near the Coast of Southern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located off the southern coast of Mexico are beginning to show
signs of organization. Additional development of this system is
expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the
next day or so. The disturbance is forecast to move northwestward,
possibly moving inland along the southern coast of Mexico this
weekend. Interests in that area should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

EP, 13, 2022091518, , BEST, 0, 125N, 952W, 30, 1007, TD

[Yellow Evan]

Good call. The depression probably move into Oaxaca possibly as a hurricane, given shear seems low and the topography of the coast will tighten the circulation.

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 152052
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022
400 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

Visible satellite imagery and a couple of recent partial ASCAT
overpasses indicate that the circulation associated with the area
of low pressure located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has become
better defined. A curved band of convection is located over the
western and southwestern portions of the circulation and has enough
organization to designate the system as a tropical depression. The
ASCAT-C instrument measured peak winds of 25-27 kt over the
southeastern portion of the circulation and since stronger winds
likely exist within the convection, the initial intensity is set at
30 kt. This is a little above the latest Dvorak estimate of T1.5
(25 kt) from TAFB.

Since the cyclone is still in its formative stage, the initial
motion is a highly uncertain 310/3 kt. The depression is forecast
to move generally northwestward during the next few days around the
eastern portion of monsoonal flow that is established over the
eastern Pacific south of Mexico. As this flow strengthens during
the next day or so, the depression should move northwestward at an
increasingly faster forward speed, and the center of the cyclone is
forecast to approach the southern coast of Mexico on Saturday. The
GFS and ECMWF models have come into better agreement on the general
heading of the system, but there are some differences regarding how
much the cyclone accelerates. The ECMWF is on the faster side of
the guidance and brings the center onshore about 6-12 hours sooner
than the GFS. The NHC track is between these solutions and is
along the eastern side of the model trackers. It should be noted
that the global model trackers appear to be latching onto another
low-level vorticity center that is embedded within the monsoonal
flow after 48 hours. As a result, the NHC track forecast more
closely follows the model fields from the various global models.

The depression is located over warm waters and within a moist
environment, however moderate northeasterly shear is forecast to
persist over the system during the next couple of days. This shear
is likely to prevent significant intensification, but gradual
strengthening is anticipated. The NHC forecast calls for the
depression to become a tropical storm tonight or Friday and shows
some additional modest increase in strength before the center
reaches the coast. Rapid weakening should occur after landfall. The
NHC intensity forecast is a little below the SHIPS model and IVCN
consensus aids due to the current broad wind field and expected
shear conditions.

Based on this forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a
tropical storm watch for a portion of the coast of southern Mexico.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains will reach portions of coastal southern Mexico on
Friday, increasing in coverage and intensity by Saturday and
Saturday night. This rainfall may produce flash and urban
flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of
southern Mexico between Laguna de Chacahua and Zihautenajo beginning
on Saturday and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issue for that
area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 12.7N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 13.3N 96.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 14.1N 97.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 15.1N 98.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 16.9N 100.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 18/0600Z 18.4N 101.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022
1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

Satellite imagery indicates little change in the organization of
Tropical Depression Thirteen-E, with the convection continuing in
loosely organized bands displaced to the west and southwest of the
low-level center due to northeasterly vertical wind shear.
Satellite intensity estimates are in the 25-30 kt range, and based
on that data, the initial intensity remains 30 kt.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 315/3. The depression is
forecast to move generally northwestward during the next 2-3 days
around the eastern portion of monsoonal flow that is established
over the eastern Pacific south of Mexico. As this flow strengthens
during the next day or so, the depression should move at a faster
forward speed, with the center forecast to move near or over the
coast of Mexico Saturday or Saturday night. There has been little
change in the track guidance since the last advisory, and the new
forecast track is very similar to the previous track.

Moderate northeasterly shear should continue to affect the cyclone
during the time it is over water, and thus only gradual
intensification is expected. The new intensity forecast calls for
the depression to become a tropical storm late tonight or on
Friday, and shows continued gradual strengthening until landfall on
the coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall,
and the cyclone should dissipate over the mountains of Mexico by 72
h. The new intensity forecast has only minor adjustments from the
previous forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Tropical Depression Thirteen-E will reach
portions of coastal southern Mexico on Friday, increasing in
coverage and intensity by Saturday and Saturday night. This
rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along with isolated
mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of
southern Mexico between Laguna de Chacahua and Zihautenajo beginning
on Saturday and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for that
area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 12.8N 95.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 13.4N 96.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 14.4N 97.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 15.7N 99.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 17.3N 100.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/1200Z 19.0N 102.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

[Extratropical94]

TS Lester at 4am CDT

EP, 13, 2022091606, , BEST, 0, 130N, 956W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 40, 40, 0, 1010, 110, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, THIRTEEN

[Extratropical94]

Tropical Storm Lester Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022
400 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E has been upgraded to Tropical Storm
Lester. While the storm still has a sheared appearance, recent
scatterometer data indicate that surface wind speeds have
increased in the southern half of the circulation and show an area
of 30-32 kt winds. Satellite Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB
range between 30-35 kt. Given the potential for undersampling in the
satellite winds, the initial intensity for this advisory is set at
35 kt.

The cyclone is currently moving north-northwestward at about 4 kt.
Model guidance agrees that the storm should turn northwestward
shortly within the eastern portion of the monsoonal flow. Over the
next couple of days, Lester is expected to increase in forward speed
as it moves toward the Mexican coast, and the center is forecast to
cross the coastline sometime Saturday afternoon or evening. The
official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and
remains close to the model consensus aids.

Lester is expected to remain embedded in moderate northeasterly
vertical wind shear for the next 48 h. Global model guidance
suggests other atmospheric and oceanic conditions, such as
environmental moisture and sea surface temperatures, should be
conducive for possible strengthening. Therefore, the NHC intensity
forecast still shows gradual strengthening until landfall along the
coast of Mexico. The storm is expected to rapidly weaken once it
moves inland over the mountainous terrain.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Tropical Storm Lester will reach portions of
coastal southern Mexico by this evening, increasing in coverage and
intensity Saturday and Saturday night, spreading farther west on
Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along
with possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of
southern Mexico on Saturday within the Tropical Storm Warning area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 13.2N 95.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 13.8N 96.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 15.0N 98.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 16.4N 99.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 18.0N 101.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/1800Z 19.0N 103.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 161436
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Lester Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022
1000 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

Lester remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with the low-level center
occasionally becoming exposed to the east of the deep convection.
The overall appearance of the storm has changed little since early
this morning, and the latest subjective and objective Dvorak
intensity estimates support keeping the advisory intensity at 35
kt.

The storm has made its anticipated turn to the northwest and is on
on a heading of 310/7 kt. Lester should continue to move in this
direction for the next couple of days with a slight increase in
forward speed by later today as the cyclone is steered within the
flow between a cyclonic gyre to its west and a building ridge over
Texas. The latest NHC forecast track is little changed from the
previous one, and is near the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means. On this
track, the center of Lester should reach the coastline of Mexico by
Saturday afternoon or evening.

Although Lester is within a thermodynamic environment of very high
atmospheric moisture and over warm waters of of 28-29 degrees
Celsius, the moderate (15-20 kt) east-northeasterly shear currently
affecting the cyclone is forecast to persist through landfall.
Therefore, only gradual intensification is expected during that
time. After landfall, Lester should rapidly weaken over the rugged
terrain of western Mexico, and the cyclone is forecast to dissipate
on Sunday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the
previous one and is close to the various intensity consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Lester will reach portions of coastal southern
Mexico by this evening, increasing in coverage and intensity
Saturday and Saturday night, spreading farther west on Sunday. This
rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible
mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of
southern Mexico on Saturday within the Tropical Storm Warning area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 13.7N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 14.4N 97.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 15.7N 99.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 17.2N 100.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...ON THE COAST
48H 18/1200Z 18.7N 102.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

058
WTPZ43 KNHC 162035
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Lester Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022
400 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

Lester's appearance has remained nearly the same since early this
morning. The cyclone continues to battle moderate
east-northeasterly shear of about 15-20 kt, which is causing the
center to remain near, or just east of, its associated deep
convection. An 1548 UTC ASCAT overpass showed peak wind vectors of
32 kt. Therefore, the advisory intensity is being held at 35 kt.

The storm is now moving a little faster to the northwest, or 310/10
kt. Lester should continue to move in this direction for the next
couple of days as the cyclone is steered within the flow between a
cyclonic gyre to its west and a ridge over Texas. The latest NHC
forecast track was nudged slightly to the east following the recent
shift in the guidance. Due to the combination of the slight eastward
track adjustment and ASCAT verification of tropical-storm-force
winds about 70 n mi northeast of the center, the Government of
Mexico expanded the Tropical Storm Warning eastward to Puerto
Escondido. Based on the latest forecast track, the center of Lester
should reach the coastline of Mexico by Saturday afternoon or
evening.

Although Lester is within a thermodynamic environment of very high
atmospheric moisture and over warm waters of 28-29 degrees Celsius,
the shear currently affecting the cyclone is forecast to persist
through landfall. Therefore, only gradual intensification is
expected during that time. After landfall, Lester should rapidly
weaken over the rugged terrain of western Mexico, and the cyclone is
forecast to dissipate by Sunday. Because Lester was not able to take
advantage of the time it had over water today to strengthen, the
latest NHC intensity forecast has been lowered slightly from the
previous one and is close to the various intensity consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Lester will reach portions of coastal southern
Mexico by this evening, increasing in coverage and intensity
Saturday and Saturday night, spreading farther west on Sunday. This
rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible
mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of
southern Mexico tonight and Saturday within the Tropical Storm
Warning area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 14.3N 97.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 15.1N 98.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 16.6N 99.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 18.1N 101.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ26 KNES 170007
TCSENP

A. 13E (LESTER)

B. 16/2330Z

C. 14.2N

D. 97.3W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT OF 3.0 IS BASED ON THE CENTER LOCATED LT 1/2 DEG FROM
THE EDGE OF CONVECTION AS SEEN IN VIS IMAGERY. DT IS REJECTED BECAUSE
THE CONVECTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY
SMALL, TIGHT LLCC. MET AND PT ARE 2.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ