ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Tireman4]

Let me add this...everyone in the Gulf needs to watch this. Also, this is a good time for all to review your kits, your plans and be mindful. This is the time of the year, no matter what happens.

[tiger_deF]

I think there is a serious possibility that land interaction with SA significantly affects the path of 98L down the line. It needs to gain some latitude fast

[AJC3]

Great tweet from Stu Ostro (TWC) showing the satellite presentation of 98L since it left the coast of Africa...

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1572238235321106432

[Sciencerocks]

[tolakram]

Who was the guy that doubted this storm?

[chaser1]

Timing could have a significant impact on where any well developed TC may track. Seems to me that models suggesting a faster evolution will suggest a quicker northward turn. Those depicting a slower development and/or motion would probably favor potential locations from north central GOM to NW GOM. On a not so random side note..... I wonder if there's any cozy beachside AirBnB's between Crystal River to St. Marks?

[psyclone]

The CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks depict below normal temps in the eastern lakes and above normal precip over the far southeast with a max over peninsular FL. That is a perfect pattern to draw something northward from the western Caribbean. The pattern at this very early juncture suggests a maximum risk to the FL peninsula IMO...

[AutoPenalti]

Who was the guy that doubted this storm?

He wasn't sure what the buzz was about, he found out hours later, it's all good now.

[SFLcane]

Not really impressed at all with the way this looks right now. Its getting squashed by outflow from Fiona from the north. That alone with land interaction maybe it does not develop at all? Certainly would not surprise me given everything that has happened this season. We dont need destruction of any kind right now so we shall see.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir <------- watch loop!

[LarryWx]

Not really impressed at all with the way this looks right now. Its getting squashed by outflow from Fiona from the north. That alone with land interaction maybe it does not develop at all? Certainly would not surprise me given everything that has happened this season. We dont need destruction of any kind right now so we shall see.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir <------- watch loop!

Other than the GFS, all credible operational models do little with this until well west into the Caribbean. Until then, they only have very weak and unimpressive lows.

[Category5Kaiju]

Not really impressed at all with the way this looks right now. Its getting squashed by outflow from Fiona from the north. That alone with land interaction maybe it does not develop at all? Certainly would not surprise me given everything that has happened this season. We dont need destruction of any kind right now so we shall see.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir <------- watch loop!

I would be extremely surprised to see this not form. There's simply too heavy of model consensus, from GFS to Euro, that suggests it will. Plus, it's not actually expected to develop until some days from now, and its center of circulation is north of SA contrary to what it may look like visibly.

[tolakram]

Not really impressed at all with the way this looks right now. Its getting squashed by outflow from Fiona from the north. That alone with land interaction maybe it does not develop at all? Certainly would not surprise me given everything that has happened this season. We dont need destruction of any kind right now so we shall see.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir <------- watch loop!

Other than the GFS, all credible operational models do little with this until well west into the Caribbean.

I doubted the GFS quick development and also overall development since every model showed a weak wave. I still don't think this develops in the graveyard, but if it does the 2022 funk is surely gone for now.

[Iceresistance]

Not really impressed at all with the way this looks right now. Its getting squashed by outflow from Fiona from the north. That alone with land interaction maybe it does not develop at all? Certainly would not surprise me given everything that has happened this season. We dont need destruction of any kind right now so we shall see.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir <------- watch loop!

Andy Hazelton has taken note of it.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1572321377704706051

[LarryWx]

Not really impressed at all with the way this looks right now. Its getting squashed by outflow from Fiona from the north. That alone with land interaction maybe it does not develop at all? Certainly would not surprise me given everything that has happened this season. We dont need destruction of any kind right now so we shall see.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir <------- watch loop!

Other than the GFS, all credible operational models do little with this until well west into the Caribbean.

I doubted the GFS quick development and also overall development since every model showed a weak wave. I still don't think this develops in the graveyard, but if it does the 2022 funk is surely gone for now.

This is the map of TC origins Sept 21-30 1851-2015 (I looked and this was also the case for 2016-21) and says that if it doesn't become a TC by the LAs (the likely case right now), it will almost certainly wait at least for another 800-1000 miles:

[BobHarlem]

2016's Hermine broke Florida's hurricane drought and made landfall in the Big Bend. Lots of surge from that one in Cedar Key too. 2022's Hermine will also be in the gulf potentially.

[Category5Kaiju]

2016's Hermine broke Florida's hurricane drought and made landfall in the Big Bend. Lots of surge from that one in Cedar Key too. 2022's Hermine will also be in the gulf potentially.

Only difference is that this has the potential to be a bigger, nastier version of the 2016 storm

[caneseddy]

Other than the GFS, all credible operational models do little with this until well west into the Caribbean.

I doubted the GFS quick development and also overall development since every model showed a weak wave. I still don't think this develops in the graveyard, but if it does the 2022 funk is surely gone for now.

Which is what the majority of models show and what the NHC has an 80% tag on it in 5 days (when it’s expected to be in the NW Caribbean). All we can do is sit back and see what transpires over the next several days

This is the map of TC origins Sept 21-30 since 1851-2015 (I looked and this was also the case for 2016-21) and says that if it doesn't become a TC by the LAs (the likely case right now), it will almost certainly wait at least for another 800-1000 miles:

https://i.imgur.com/zobWUbq.png

[Michele B]

Timing could have a significant impact on where any well developed TC may track. Seems to me that models suggesting a faster evolution will suggest a quicker northward turn. Those depicting a slower development and/or motion would probably favor potential locations from north central GOM to NW GOM. On a not so random side note..... I wonder if there's any cozy beachside AirBnB's between Crystal River to St. Marks?

I would venture to guess that this thing will bomb once Fiona's effects are moved away sufficiently.

[Blown Away]

10.1N/56W - 18z position

[Sanibel]

Don't like the look of this one...

If it takes a Charlie track it won't come here weak...

Keeping a close eye on this and doing needed hurricane shutter repairs TOMORROW...