ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ExBailbonds]

Well crap here we go after watching and following the 98L threads for a few days a will start finalizing prep in Homestead Fl. Been down this road a few times and i will be ready but i am hoping that i will not need any of it and it misses to the east somehow. I know not likely but holding out hope for my fellow Floridians.

[ConvergenceZone]

Well crap here we go after watching and following the 98L threads for a few days a will start finalizing prep in Homestead Fl. Been down this road a few times and i will be ready but i am hoping that i will not need any of it and it misses to the east somehow. I know not likely but holding out hope for my fellow Floridians.

Don't lose hope! It's still very possible that it could move completely east of Florida. Remember, unless it changes, the trend is your friend!
but yes, you definitely want to prepare, absolutely!! ........

[AutoPenalti]

I would bet by Saturday or Sunday we should see some advisories issued for Jamaica.

[fllawyer]

With anticipated boost in forward speed that brings the track near Jamaica in three days, when would NHC potentially start issuing PTC advisories?

EDIT: just saw above post.

[MetroMike]

With anticipated boost in forward speed that brings the track near Jamaica in three days, when would NHC potentially start issuing PTC advisories?

One would think so given the strong signals and possible impacts Monday in some areas.

[stormhunter7]

Cleary can see a vortex on visible. Time will tell if this is something spinning around a larger circulation or not. 12.8n and 66.8w ish?

[WiscoWx02]

Well crap here we go after watching and following the 98L threads for a few days a will start finalizing prep in Homestead Fl. Been down this road a few times and i will be ready but i am hoping that i will not need any of it and it misses to the east somehow. I know not likely but holding out hope for my fellow Floridians.

Don't lose hope! It's still very possible that it could move completely east of Florida. Remember, unless it changes, the trend is your friend!
but yes, you definitely want to prepare, absolutely!! ........

Personally I do not think this will hit anywhere in the CONUS as of right now. The models keep tracking further and further east. Would not be shocked if by this time tomorrow Cuba and Jamaica and the Bahamas get this and the US os spared. Wouldn’t put my life on it but have seen this happen before.

[Hurricaneman]

Cleary can see a vortex on visible. Time will tell if this is something spinning around a larger circulation or not. 12.8n and 66.8w ish?

It’s an eddy rotating around a broad center

[Sciencerocks]

[Hurricaneman]

My opinion is the center of the broad low is 67.1w 12.2n

[MGC]

Cleary can see a vortex on visible. Time will tell if this is something spinning around a larger circulation or not. 12.8n and 66.8w ish?

It’s an eddy rotating around a broad center[/quote


yup, its moving north.....MGC

[Aric Dunn]

Cleary can see a vortex on visible. Time will tell if this is something spinning around a larger circulation or not. 12.8n and 66.8w ish?

It’s an eddy rotating around a broad center[/quote


yup, its moving north.....MGC

in the middle of that eddy and the one forming to the west of it with some convection popping. the one diving SW has a bunch more energy and should pop off another round of convection.

[Nimbus]

My opinion is the center of the broad low is 67.1w 12.2n

The shear is really doing a number on this system but the convection has been streaming off the surface near there. The naked dry eddy racing off to the northeast near 12.8N may not have any pressure profile with it.
It was supposed to stay sheared for a couple days and the models are going to be wrong until they get a better initialization south of Jamaica.

[ConvergenceZone]

Well crap here we go after watching and following the 98L threads for a few days a will start finalizing prep in Homestead Fl. Been down this road a few times and i will be ready but i am hoping that i will not need any of it and it misses to

the east somehow. I know not likely but holding out hope for my fellow Floridians.

Don't lose hope! It's still very possible that it could move completely east of Florida. Remember, unless it changes, the trend is your friend!
but yes, you definitely want to prepare, absolutely!! ........

Personally I do not think this will hit anywhere in the CONUS as of right now. The models keep tracking further and further east. Would not be shocked if by this time tomorrow Cuba and Jamaica and the Bahamas get this and the US os spared. Wouldn’t put my life on it but have seen this happen before.

Yea a good friend of mine who I went to college with who is now a pro meteorologist, who tracks the tropics in his spare time said the same thing. He thinks there is a very good chance this misses the USA Mainland all-together. I'm kinda in the middle. I think it's going to be a really close call, but I think that the southern tip of Florida will end up getting clipped..........

[beachnut]

I lurk a lot and post a little, but know enough to heed mr. wxman. Finally repaired my Irma-damaged main lanai panel this summer so we're pretty much ready to go. We've got supplies, etc. and will get full tanks tonight before the crazies get out there tomorrow. Would only consider leaving if forecast track parallels close offshore or comes in north of Fort Myers. We live on the water and are prone to surge. Irma surge forecasts for our neighbor hood were 6-9 ft above ground level which fortunately did not happen. Back to lurking ...

[Poonwalker]

looks like a case where proximity to land tightened it up. I feel like my fears are playing out on this one, coming into the gulf from that angle is not a good thing for central florida, almost has to be the perfect setup honestly. I looked at the climatology maps and the end of September and early October favor this exact setup where a similar trough presentation brought them in.

[ncapps]

Really hope the people who organized the work conference I'm going to in Miami next week are paying attention. Fly down Monday and have anxiety about it already.

[Aric Dunn]

New meso vort that is dropping SW and starting to fire some towers is about to eat the other vort moving nnw... will probably take over for now. maybe get it just far enough west get into slightly lower shear for the night.

[typhoonty]

Well crap here we go after watching and following the 98L threads for a few days a will start finalizing prep in Homestead Fl. Been down this road a few times and i will be ready but i am hoping that i will not need any of it and it misses to the east somehow. I know not likely but holding out hope for my fellow Floridians.

Don't lose hope! It's still very possible that it could move completely east of Florida. Remember, unless it changes, the trend is your friend!
but yes, you definitely want to prepare, absolutely!! ........

Personally I do not think this will hit anywhere in the CONUS as of right now. The models keep tracking further and further east. Would not be shocked if by this time tomorrow Cuba and Jamaica and the Bahamas get this and the US os spared. Wouldn’t put my life on it but have seen this happen before.

This is the wrong answer. The models have shifted east for a grand total of two cycles after 8 or so consecutive cycles of westerly movement of the consensus previous to that. I agree that we should root for a quick right turn through the FL Strait marine zones, but that is not the forecast right now. I have been telling people to prepare now by doing things like getting gas and non-perishable groceries. Things you may need for this event, but that you won't hate yourself for doing in case this doesn't end up being "the one."

[toad strangler]

Don't lose hope! It's still very possible that it could move completely east of Florida. Remember, unless it changes, the trend is your friend!
but yes, you definitely want to prepare, absolutely!! ........

Personally I do not think this will hit anywhere in the CONUS as of right now. The models keep tracking further and further east. Would not be shocked if by this time tomorrow Cuba and Jamaica and the Bahamas get this and the US os spared. Wouldn’t put my life on it but have seen this happen before.

This is the wrong answer. The models have shifted east for a grand total of two cycles after 8 or so consecutive cycles of westerly movement of the consensus previous to that. I agree that we should root for a quick right turn through the FL Strait marine zones, but that is not the forecast right now. I have been telling people to prepare now by doing things like getting gas and non-perishable groceries. Things you may need for this event, but that you won't hate yourself for doing in case this doesn't end up being "the one."

Sound advice