ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Subtrop
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 445
Joined: Sun Feb 21, 2021 9:45 pm

ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby Subtrop » Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:51 am

AL, 98, 2022092012, , BEST, 0, 103N, 530W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028, SPAWNINVEST, al712022 to al982022,


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk
1 likes   

User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1766
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#2 Postby kevin » Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:53 am

I think this might become the longest thread of the season. We'll see. Here's IR (data is slightly delayed):

4 likes   

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4161
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#3 Postby toad strangler » Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:55 am

That was quick. Very active pattern right now. Impressive. This one has potential somewhere in the western basin for sure.
3 likes   

User avatar
Hurricane2022
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 888
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:38 pm
Location: Araçatuba, Brazil

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#4 Postby Hurricane2022 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:16 am

I'm expecting 98L (soon Hermine\Ian) to be the strongest storm of the season. It will have winds of 155 kt and pressure sub-915 mbar. it will also hit a region close to where Michael '18 made landfall.
:grrr: :craz:
Last edited by Hurricane2022 on Sat Sep 24, 2022 2:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
2 likes   
Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.

--------

Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.

User avatar
MississippiWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1535
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#5 Postby MississippiWx » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:19 am

Wow. This one is already very convectively active. Probably some of the best convection I've seen in the MDR this season. I doubted the GFS runs of developing this quickly, but if this kind of convection continues, it might be right.
3 likes   
This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Pelicane
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 51
Joined: Tue Sep 13, 2022 1:52 pm
Location: Lafayette, Louisiana

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#6 Postby Pelicane » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:21 am

2 likes   

User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3205
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#7 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:23 am

The 700-925mb vorticity is stacked nicely.
700mb Vorticity
Image
850mb Vorticity
Image
925mb Vorticity
Image
2 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9594
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#8 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:23 am

Image
0 likes   

Jelmergraaff
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 127
Age: 21
Joined: Fri Aug 27, 2021 1:00 pm
Location: The Netherlands

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#9 Postby Jelmergraaff » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:25 am

I'm not a pro (we don't have any hurricanes in The Netherlands :wink:), but I feel like this one has a good chance of getting pretty far west. It could very well be that right before 98L makes a turn to the north and later northwest, there will be a ridge going from the Central-US to the east/southeast. The trough in the beginning of next week over the (north)eastern-US is probably too far NE to "pull" 98L. The following rigde would steer 98L pretty far west, possibly into the GOM. Consequently also not too much windshear, which would make it a (very) favourable environment. I surely wouldn't rule out a Major Hurriance.

0 likes   
20-year old meteorologist from The Netherlands. Interested in all fields of meteorology, including tropical systems like hurricanes.

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8897
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#10 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:26 am

This was a few hours before from BenNollWeather

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1572181526267076608


2 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#11 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:35 am

If this convective activity continues, the GFS might be right about TS Gaston or Hermine in the easternmost Caribbean. It’ll probably stay a TS for a few days due to a poor UL environment thanks to Fiona, but once this gets into the WCar…oh boy.

Today’s HWRF and HMON runs are going to be quite interesting.
2 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
MississippiWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1535
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#12 Postby MississippiWx » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:38 am

aspen wrote:If this convective activity continues, the GFS might be right about TS Gaston or Hermine in the easternmost Caribbean. It’ll probably stay a TS for a few days due to a poor UL environment thanks to Fiona, but once this gets into the WCar…oh boy.

Today’s HWRF and HMON runs are going to be quite interesting.


I smell a modeled HWRF Cat 5 in the Western Caribbean on the 12z run. :ggreen:
5 likes   
This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Beef Stew
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 283
Joined: Sat May 30, 2020 11:31 am
Location: South Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#13 Postby Beef Stew » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:46 am

Here comes a long thread I fear. 98L is already looking impressive ahead of schedule- vorticity is stacking well and convection is looking quite robust. We’ll have to wait a few days before the models really get a good track on it- after all, the safest place usually seems to be where the models have a storm in a weeks’s time. Not overtly concerned yet for WFL, but certainly keeping an eye out.
Last edited by Beef Stew on Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
2 likes   

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9856
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#14 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:46 am

MississippiWx wrote:
aspen wrote:If this convective activity continues, the GFS might be right about TS Gaston or Hermine in the easternmost Caribbean. It’ll probably stay a TS for a few days due to a poor UL environment thanks to Fiona, but once this gets into the WCar…oh boy.

Today’s HWRF and HMON runs are going to be quite interesting.


I smell a modeled HWRF Cat 5 in the Western Caribbean on the 12z run. :ggreen:


No doubt, the HWRF with these predicted favorable conditions will go nuclear. :D
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05...
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6771
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#15 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:50 am

Blown Away wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:
aspen wrote:If this convective activity continues, the GFS might be right about TS Gaston or Hermine in the easternmost Caribbean. It’ll probably stay a TS for a few days due to a poor UL environment thanks to Fiona, but once this gets into the WCar…oh boy.

Today’s HWRF and HMON runs are going to be quite interesting.


I smell a modeled HWRF Cat 5 in the Western Caribbean on the 12z run. :ggreen:


No doubt, the HWRF with these predicted favorable conditions will go nuclear. :D


The HWRF is very good in these setups as far as intensity forecasting goes.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7280
Age: 43
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#16 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Sep 20, 2022 9:00 am

The convection is organizing and could form a broad low later today or tomorrow if current trends continue
0 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8897
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#17 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Sep 20, 2022 9:22 am

This already has an Upper-level Anticyclone.
Image
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Invest-98L.gif

(Trying to get the upper-level winds here, but the map bugged out somewhat)
3 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9594
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#18 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 20, 2022 9:22 am

Image
3 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8897
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#19 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Sep 20, 2022 9:24 am

Iceresistance wrote:This already has an Upper-level Anticyclone.
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Invest-98L.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Invest-98L.gif

(Trying to get the upper-level winds here, but the map bugged out somewhat)


Finally got it. It already has southern outflow.

Image
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/Upper-level-winds-over-98L.gif
1 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

caneseddy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1138
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:31 pm
Location: Plantation, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#20 Postby caneseddy » Tue Sep 20, 2022 9:26 am

3 likes   


Return to “2022”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 15 guests