ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane Mike]

I wanna thank everyone who tuned into the video updates the last few days. Ian is now added to the historic hurricane list.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fnPNhEiXvi0

[wx98]

I'm not sure why the NHC still has that NNE heading. By radar the center is now northeast of Punta Gorda by about 75 miles (east of Sebring) on a heading of 045-050 degrees. You can barely make it out on Melbourne radar because there is little to no convection left. If it continues, it will exit over Palm Bay/Melbourne, but if it does begin a NNE motion it could make it as far north as Titusville before exiting.

[Jr0d]

From the radar, it looks like Ian is tapping into Lake Okeechobee's energy.

Unfortunately, despite shear, dry air, and other inhibitors I think Ian will have no problem maintaining hurricane strength when it hits the Carolina's. Perhaps even become a major storm again.

[longhorn2004]

Hey Ian, there is a reason its called a Cold Front. Enjoy sucking in the cool dry air.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Since Ian doesn't appear to be slowing down to make a stall, like previously predicted, does that mean the high that was supposed to steer it into SC, may not make it until NC?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Regarding this morning's recon flight that appeared to be "stuck" in the eye. They were indeed in serious trouble.

https://twitter.com/malkoff/status/1575147547689197571

[viberama]

I'm not sure why the NHC still has that NNE heading. By radar the center is now northeast of Punta Gorda by about 75 miles (east of Sebring) on a heading of 045-050 degrees. You can barely make it out on Melbourne radar because there is little to no convection left. If it continues, it will exit over Palm Bay/Melbourne, but if it does begin a NNE motion it could make it as far north as Titusville before exiting.

What radar loop are you looking at? It looks to me like the remnants of the low are just a bit NNE of Sebring moving NNE. Seems like it's on track to me.

[FLLurker32]

Getting some pretty decent gusts on the very southern end of Marion county. I’m only a mile north of Lake and Sumter counties. It’s been raining all day, sometimes a drizzle sometimes heavy. More interestingly, there’s been a lot of lightening and it’s very cool here. Around 70 degrees. After such a hot summer I need a jacket just to tolerate the cold wind. I said it earlier but it’s worth repeating - what an odd mix of a tropical storm winds with fall weather. Can’t remember one quite like this in nearly 40 yrs.

[rwfromkansas]

At this point Im not really sure where to post random things like this, but seeing the speed this water spout/tornado/water spout/tornado, moved and the power it had, was pretty impressive

https://twitter.com/terri_____/status/1575082364874948608?t=7P5gQQMgWJOkxvq28p9zaA&s=19

Wow. I’m also amazed the guy held the camera steady and told a complete story.

Those 15-second clips everybody posts now of tornadoes etc. are awful plagues upon our society.

Update: video is old.

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, down to 80 MPH? This weakened quick than I thought it would..... Might just be a depression by the time it exits the coast tomorrow sometime... Let's hope it's just a naked depression, so that the Carolina's won't have to deal with any problems.....

A) winds are at 90 MPH, not 80.
B) it is forecast to be a strong tropical storm when exiting Florida, not a depression.

Both of these items are readily accessible at nhc.noaa.gov

Sorry, for some reason the map I saw had a typo and said "80". Also, what is suppose to be and what it will be are often two different things

[jonj2040]

Things are escalating quite a bit here in brevard now. Rain has kicked backed in and kicked the power out. Some of the roofing on our chicken coop has come off.

[wx98]

I'm not sure why the NHC still has that NNE heading. By radar the center is now northeast of Punta Gorda by about 75 miles (east of Sebring) on a heading of 045-050 degrees. You can barely make it out on Melbourne radar because there is little to no convection left. If it continues, it will exit over Palm Bay/Melbourne, but if it does begin a NNE motion it could make it as far north as Titusville before exiting.

What radar loop are you looking at? It looks to me like the remnants of the low are just a bit NNE of Sebring moving NNE. Seems like it's on track to me.

The low-level center is very hard to find but I've been watching it constantly since landfall. It is now ENE of Sebring but has definitely started moving NNE over the last hour. Just pointing out that it didn't do that for the last few hours.

[eastcoastFL]

It’s been a very windy and gusty evening in Palm City. No clue what the highest winds have been as the readings from the airport stopped working 2 hours ago. Last I saw was 40 gusting to 53 and it went out. It’s been a little windier since then. Lights have been flickering all night. Internet comes and goes. Hope everyone else is safe out there tonight across Florida.

[Cyclenall]

If Ian somehow did restrengthen back to a major before its 2nd landfall in the Carolinas that would be more remarkable than what took place yesterday morning. Even if conditions allowed I can't envision its structure as of now allowing for that kind of tropical tightening, sub-tropical it couldn't make it anyways.

[FLLurker32]

I think it's a little misleading to go back a week and find the one forecast track that went over the Fort Myers area and then claim the forecast was "phenomenal." I don't assign any blame to anyone at the NHC or any other forecasting agency; this was a uniquely difficult storm to track. And yes, the landfall point never left the cone. But given the large number of policymaking decisions and personal choices that were made based on significantly different forecasts over the last few days, I'm going to call this one a forecasting "miss" that needs to be researched in the future.

I just went back and looked at the NHC archives for good measure. The landfall point was not only in the cone but the coastal regions were under tropical storm warnings/hurricane watch by 5am EST Monday when the NHC started issuing them for the peninsula. A few things to consider:
1) Responsibility regarding adequate measures and adherence to NHC forecasts lay on the emergency response efforts within the specified county.
2) Until the day comes that we’ve somehow mastered every variable within the environment, there will always be a cone of error.
3) The NHC already does appearances on tv to explain how the cone works and the risks, they do videos with every update to explain the same - at some point there has to be responsibility on the local govt, local Mets and individuals to make sure they’re both seeking out the information and/or sharing it.

I agree it’ll be studied and has room for improvement, same as any other area of science.

[Janie2006]

At this point Im not really sure where to post random things like this, but seeing the speed this water spout/tornado/water spout/tornado, moved and the power it had, was pretty impressive

https://twitter.com/terri_____/status/1575082364874948608?t=7P5gQQMgWJOkxvq28p9zaA&s=19

He and his partner found out the hard way that tornadoes can move very quickly, and especially so during a tropical event such as this. 65-70 mph is not unheard of, nor especially uncommon.

[Abdullah]

This strange looking funnel type cloud was shot in Davie, Florida (Broward County) just before dark last night in outer band of Ian. Damage was occurring under this to homes and shopping centers.

https://i.imgur.com/Bwts2r4.jpg

That's not a tornado?

[jasons2k]

To be fair, Naples/Marco Island weren't even inside the cone in last night's 8PM CDT update, and they got some of the worst surge from this.

Something that will certainly be retrospected-on after the cleanup is finished.

TBF they didn’t have to be in the cone to get the surge effects they did. It was a big storm.

Yeah, but everything changed fast, I including surge forecasts. This was a Tampa storm that shifted SE…by a lot.

[gailwarning]

I think it's a little misleading to go back a week and find the one forecast track that went over the Fort Myers area and then claim the forecast was "phenomenal." I don't assign any blame to anyone at the NHC or any other forecasting agency; this was a uniquely difficult storm to track. And yes, the landfall point never left the cone. But given the large number of policymaking decisions and personal choices that were made based on significantly different forecasts over the last few days, I'm going to call this one a forecasting "miss" that needs to be researched in the future.

I just went back and looked at the NHC archives for good measure. The landfall point was not only in the cone but the coastal regions were under tropical storm warnings/hurricane watch by 5am EST Monday when the NHC started issuing them for the peninsula. A few things to consider:
1) Responsibility regarding adequate measures and adherence to NHC forecasts lay on the emergency response efforts within the specified county.
2) Until the day comes that we’ve somehow mastered every variable within the environment, there will always be a cone of error.
3) The NHC already does appearances on tv to explain how the cone works and the risks, they do videos with every update to explain the same - at some point there has to be responsibility on the local govt, local Mets and individuals to make sure they’re both seeking out the information and/or sharing it.

I agree it’ll be studied and has room for improvement, same as any other area of science.

I'm beginning to think NHC should just stick to the cone and forget about showing a track. The public just doesn't seem to get it. I was on a FB page Tues and a woman was claiming they weren't even in the cone that morning and had no time to prepare. I had to go back to Fri Sept 23 and screenshot the thing to prove to her they had been in the cone for days. Why the heck aren't folks who live in vulnerable areas taking the responsibility upon themselves to pay attention and to know how to prepare? Why, in 2022, with the best communications our species has ever had, still having to pluck people off roofs? It's easy to blame NHC, but rarely warranted in the larger scheme of things. Those are the larger questions.

[FLLurker32]

To be fair, Naples/Marco Island weren't even inside the cone in last night's 8PM CDT update, and they got some of the worst surge from this.

Something that will certainly be retrospected-on after the cleanup is finished.

TBF they didn’t have to be in the cone to get the surge effects they did. It was a big storm.

Yeah, but everything changed fast, I including surge forecasts. This was a Tampa storm that shifted SE…by a lot.

They weren’t in the cone but they were included in the coastal warnings. Coastal areas always have surge impacts even when outside the cone. I can see the issue if they evacuated based on a forecast of x ft of surge but received more. I just disagree that there wasn’t any knowledge of surge threat with warnings and a massive storm like that skirting by.