ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jdjaguar]

Yeah no way should anyone trust the government to censor hurricane model data lol

Prior to the last maybe 10 yrs or so, the model data wasn’t widely shared. Not sure how keeping professional tools with the professionals = censorship. Most professions have tools they don’t share with the general public.

Might be out of my element here, but as a professional biologist and two years into a pandemic, I personally would never trust the government “professionals” to manage access to data/modeling. We knew in January 2020 that we were going to have big big problems and look what happened. We knew their testing/sampling methods were not going to work. An academic lab in the PNW that had population samples and an assay working and so *knew* it was already widely circulating. They alerted the FDA, and instead of listening they brought the hammer down on the lab. This was one month before bodies started piling up in refrigerated trucks in my neighborhood and people died in their apartments waiting for help.

Open source data and science for all. I am not a meteorologist but gave my brother a heads up (9/21 I told him to prepare) thanks to you all here. He’s never been through a hurricane until this one. He knows I’m a weather nerd and he spent the weekend prepping his house for flooding and he’s under a flash flood emergency now. He sent me video of his new French drain gushing water out to the street that would have been in his living room. The issue isn’t data access it’s science communication.

I second this sentiment. Open source data and science for all. We have enough censorship as it is.

[TallyTracker]

The dry air is chewing up the southern side of Ian’s circulation now which thankfully should limit reintensification.

With that said, the Carolinas and Georgia should prepare for a Cat 2 hurricane. Always prepare for at least a category higher than predicted. Yesterday was another prime example of why that is so crucial. Also if you are in or near the cone, the center may hit you. Prepare as though it WILL hit you. Your future self in 3 days will thank you if it does indeed hit. If it does not hit, be thankful, but do not assume it will never happen. Better to evacuate/prepare thoroughly each time then to get caught unready one day.

[weeniepatrol]

I just shocked how lenient the moderators are being today with all this bashing that has been going on, I'm just completely surprised.

On to Ian, this storm is just catastrophic and will be one for the history books.

It's been quite busy; if you see posts like that just report them and move on

[tolakram]

I just went back and looked at the NHC archives for good measure. The landfall point was not only in the cone but the coastal regions were under tropical storm warnings/hurricane watch by 5am EST Monday when the NHC started issuing them for the peninsula. A few things to consider:
1) Responsibility regarding adequate measures and adherence to NHC forecasts lay on the emergency response efforts within the specified county.
2) Until the day comes that we’ve somehow mastered every variable within the environment, there will always be a cone of error.
3) The NHC already does appearances on tv to explain how the cone works and the risks, they do videos with every update to explain the same - at some point there has to be responsibility on the local govt, local Mets and individuals to make sure they’re both seeking out the information and/or sharing it.

I agree it’ll be studied and has room for improvement, same as any other area of science.

I'm beginning to think NHC should just stick to the cone and forget about showing a track. The public just doesn't seem to get it. I was on a FB page Tues and a woman was claiming they weren't even in the cone that morning and had no time to prepare. I had to go back to Fri Sept 23 and screenshot the thing to prove to her they had been in the cone for days. Why the heck aren't folks who live in vulnerable areas taking the responsibility upon themselves to pay attention and to know how to prepare? Why, in 2022, with the best communications our species has ever had, still having to pluck people off roofs? It's easy to blame NHC, but rarely warranted in the larger scheme of things. Those are the larger questions.

I think it goes beyond that. Folks on this board aren’t going to like me saying this and as much as it pains me to say it - They need to buckle down on who has free for all access to model data and on Mets regularly sharing that data with the average Joe. People are too over inundated right now with data they simply don’t know how to properly analyze.

Restricting access to data is NEVER the answer in my opinion. If you want to look at the model data you have to know how to use it, but it's your choice, not somebody else.

I see people coming into the model threads all the time that think they can do a better job than the NHC. That's just the way it is. If one already has an attitude that they can do better than the pros then so be it. In this case some folks saw the trend and got a head start before the NHC, but they still had time AND most importantly that is not always the way it works. The error rate is in both directions, remember Irma trending left?

[tolakram]

I just shocked how lenient the moderators are being today with all this bashing that has been going on, I'm just completely surprised.

On to Ian, this storm is just catastrophic and will be one for the history books.

Is there a reason you decided to post this instead of reporting? Criticism is not always bashing, but it's OUR job to decide, not yours. We also sleep and are volunteer, so consider this a rare public scolding Blinhart.

[dizzyfish]

I know this has a small chance of reaching anyone that can help but there are a lot of kind folks here that may pass this on.

While most of the focus (and rightfully so) is on the coastal area where Ian made landfall, let's not forget the inland areas. My cousin in Wauchula says it looks like a lake there with lots of trees down and no power since 8 last night. There are mostly older houses and trailers in that tiny community and they need help badly.

Thank you to anyone that can pass that word along.

[underthwx]

Can't forget the men and women of the NHC, were affected by Ian as well.....or the gargantuan responsibility they are tasked with.....thankyou NHC

[Sanibel]

Sanibel Causeway had section washed-out...Zero word from island...Chinooks landing at RSW...

My mother died during Ian in the storm...

[Tireman4]

A huge amount of thanks to the pro mets and moderators on staff here. I have been hanging out here for a LONG time..16 years, I think. ( many longer than I) and I have to appreciate all the work they do, especially when there is an event such as took place yesterday ( and continuing today). Thank you so much for all the hard work you do!! Just know we appreciate you.

[tolakram]

There is exactly 1 perfectly legitimate criticism to have with NHC and it’s not intensity or track. And I say this as someone who expected a landfall in southwest Florida since the storm passed closer than expected to the Isle of Youth and noticing how it was moving east of track Sunday because it looked like crap.

They should’ve put Charlotte and Lee County under a hurricane watch on Sunday Night and not left it from Englewood North. For a few reasons.

1) the Fort Myers market is Charlotte Lee and Collier counties. By not including any county in our DMA under a watch the media severely downplayed the risk potential even given our chances of getting storm surge we’re always higher than Tampa Bay since it was moving north of Marco island unlike Irma. Further 90% of all watches for Lee County in my lifetime start and end at Bonita beach because that’s where the NWS TBW CWA ends. It just didn’t seem worth the risk to not include them.

2) they issued hurricane watches and warnings at 11pm Tuesday and 5AM Wednesday for Charlotte and Lee respectively. Lee County in their infinite stupidity didn’t issue any voluntary or mandatory evacuations until 7AM Wednesday. That was too late for many people. Less than 18 hours before tropical storm force winds start. Not even for the barrier islands. They would have evacuated earlier if we were under a hurricane watch on Sunday as we should’ve been.

3) Irma happened and went east of populated Lee and Collier. So very few got the life threatening storm surge that was advertised. People thought this was another Irma.

I can’t tell you how many people stayed in zone A because they “have a steep driveway “ or evacuated from Zone A to Zone B. I am willing to bet every dollar I have that over 100 people died because very few evacuated. My godmother stayed 1 mile south of Cape Coral yacht club in zone A. I begged and pleaded her to come with me, but she said it was another Irma. I have yet to hear from her since 5pm and also know people who had to vertically evacuate to a second floor. Many did not have that luxury.

The NHC did a FANTASTIC job on the meteorology overall. They did not realize how catastrophic from a social science perspective not issuing a hurricane watch would be for the fort Myers media market Sunday night.

The NHC should never issue watches/warnings based on anything other than their criteria and it's really a very simple criteria. When you start making exceptions(like for DMA or anything else) then you lose consistency and then you lose trust. Your beef is with the government and that's fine. Complacency is always a concern but that's on the citizens. We live in a high-risk area for hurricanes, the media is very good about telling people not to focus on the line. If people stayed in an evacuation zone, tough. Even your grandmother had a warning and she decided to stay and that's ok, she makes her own decision. I have never evacuated but I also have the means to get to my roof and I am at 6.2 ft above sea level. We must stop blaming NHC, government, media and anyone else other than ourselves for preps and ultimately our actions. There is more than ample info when these storms come in.

Just because the media says don’t look at the center of the cone doesn’t mean that people don’t end up looking at the center of the cone. They do. Look at my post history. I brought it up before. The southwest Florida DMA has been hit by 3 major hurricanes before today in the last 18 years. None of them have produced a catastrophic surge event for anything other than barrier islands. This was the first storm where the populated mainland received any significant surge.

I agree that the NHC should be consistent but they were not if you look purely at wind probs graphics they waited until fort myers had over a 50% chance of hurricane conditions while they issued it for englewood when it was 30%.

Also if you are such a meteorological purist that you don’t believe that discretion should ever be used by someone making a watch for the Public for anything other than meteorology then that’s your perogative. Meteorology has been trying to work with social scientists to incorporate this into their messaging for years.

NHC is a government agency that works for the public and not meteorologists. I know my hometown, I know the triggers. They would’ve issued evacuation orders for Charlotte Lee and collier had they issued the watch. They did not and it cost two days of gradual ramp up in evacuations.

The decision cost lives. You cannot change my opinion. It is fact. Widely reported by many media that more Tampa residents were prepared than Fort Myers. We were always in the cone but again, despite everyone saying it a billion time to not focus on the dot, they focus on the dot. Even my mom focuses on the dot and her house got annihilated.

The only fact is that hindsight is 20/20. AN agency issuing a forecast that has a known error rate is going to be wrong and open to criticism. You want the NHC to pinpoint an exact landfall location when you know it's impossible. We've also had storm with the chance of creating catastrophic surge and the storms weakening or coming in at just the right angle to prevent the surge. Post storm the thread is filled with they hyped it messages. It's all archived here, you can look it up.

I don't know your particular situation, but I'd make sure what you are saying is a real fact because I doubt it. Most, if not all, of those warning graphics are automated based on the track forecast.

[underthwx]

A huge amount of thanks to the pro mets and moderators on staff here. I have been hanging out here for a LONG time..16 years, I think. ( many longer than I) and I have to appreciate all the work they do, especially when there is an event such as took place yesterday ( and continuing today). Thank you so much for all the hard work you do!! Just know we appreciate you.

Well said, I echo your thoughts

[tolakram]

Sanibel Causeway had section washed-out...Zero word from island...Chinooks landing at RSW...

My mother died during Ian...

I'm sorry Sanibel, wishing you the best.

[Vdogg]

Quite breezy here in Virginia Beach. Clouds already moving in. It always staggers me the size that these systems can get, and how they can effect sizeable chunks of the country.

[underthwx]

Sanibel Causeway had section washed-out...Zero word from island...Chinooks landing at RSW...

My mother died during Ian...

I'm sorry Sanibel, wishing you the best.

My heart is heavy for you Sanibel....my deepest sympathy....

[MississippiWx]

Sanibel Causeway had section washed-out...Zero word from island...Chinooks landing at RSW...

My mother died during Ian in the storm...

That's awful Very sorry for your loss. Sending my deepest sympathy.

[Iceresistance]

Sanibel Causeway had section washed-out...Zero word from island...Chinooks landing at RSW...

My mother died during Ian in the storm...

That is terrible!

[tolakram]

LLC appears to be off the coast already.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[tomatkins]

I'm beginning to think NHC should just stick to the cone and forget about showing a track. The public just doesn't seem to get it. I was on a FB page Tues and a woman was claiming they weren't even in the cone that morning and had no time to prepare. I had to go back to Fri Sept 23 and screenshot the thing to prove to her they had been in the cone for days. Why the heck aren't folks who live in vulnerable areas taking the responsibility upon themselves to pay attention and to know how to prepare? Why, in 2022, with the best communications our species has ever had, still having to pluck people off roofs? It's easy to blame NHC, but rarely warranted in the larger scheme of things. Those are the larger questions.

I think it goes beyond that. Folks on this board aren’t going to like me saying this and as much as it pains me to say it - They need to buckle down on who has free for all access to model data and on Mets regularly sharing that data with the average Joe. People are too over inundated right now with data they simply don’t know how to properly analyze.

Restricting access to data is NEVER the answer in my opinion. If you want to look at the model data you have to know how to use it, but it's your choice, not somebody else.

I see people coming into the model threads all the time that think they can do a better job than the NHC. That's just the way it is. If one already has an attitude that they can do better than the pros then so be it. In this case some folks saw the trend and got a head start before the NHC, but they still had time AND most importantly that is not always the way it works. The error rate is in both directions, remember Irma trending left?

Ultimately if the models are all over the place, then the forecast is more likely to be wrong. We can and will continue to try to improve the models, but they arent perfect.

Of course the real issue is that people are just really really bad at assessing risk and acting accordingly. This was pretty clearly a high variance forecast. If we were all robots, we would ingest that data (that there was a larger than normal model spread) and assessed our risk appropriately. But of course we aren't robots. We get information in dribs and drabs. We arent good at thinking about stuff like the percent chance that the forecast will be wrong and what it means for our situation. Or looking at similar past events and applying their lessons to the present.

Its really a perennial problem that the NHC cant solve beause people are people. They can improve their comms marginally - but you will never get the mass of people to appropriately assess risk. Ultimately the only real answer is to continue improving the models so that you reduce your own odds of getting it wrong.

[ronjon]

Sanibel Causeway had section washed-out...Zero word from island...Chinooks landing at RSW...

My mother died during Ian in the storm...

I'm so sorry Sanibel for your loss. For the entire S2K community, we grieve for you and your family.

[boca]

Sanibel Causeway had section washed-out...Zero word from island...Chinooks landing at RSW...

My mother died during Ian...

I'm sorry Sanibel, wishing you the best.

So sorry for your loss.