ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ronjon]

Should be TD ..

Engines ready!

https://i.postimg.cc/c1BQ33Hf/8-F4-E0364-2794-4-A8-F-B069-2-B76-B10-A8-FBD.gif

Still badly sheared by Fiona's outflow but agree its got a vigorous LLC and increasing convection, although still sheared off to the SW. I'd give it another 12-24 hrs until depression status.

[Michele B]

Went to walmart earlier today. Nobody panicking yet. I'm sure that'll change in the next couple days

ME TOO. Just got back. Filled all the holes. The glory of being 90% ready all the time! Now this can skip on out to the east.

Dont want to hijack the thread, but Tampa here. Just got back from a costco run. No panic yet but by tomorrow it will be here.

Nobody will panic. Probably nobody will even take notice until TWC or locals start talking about the storm possibilities 24/7.

[Aric Dunn]

Should be TD ..

Engines ready!

https://i.postimg.cc/c1BQ33Hf/8-F4-E0364-2794-4-A8-F-B069-2-B76-B10-A8-FBD.gif

Still badly sheared by Fiona's outflow but agree its got a vigorous LLC and increasing convection, although still sheared off to the SW. I'd give it another 12-24 hrs until depression status.

Shear does not stop a TC from being a TC. Only a ever changing definition stops it from being a TC.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the LLC is moving under the convection, could be a depression by morning if this continues

[aspen]

I think one of the less impactful tracks this could take is actually passing through the Yucatan Channel. While this would raise the intensity ceiling by a fair margin, going through the Channel means no MH landfall in Mexico or Cuba, and it gives 98L plenty of time to be worn down by shear in the Gulf and weaken before a Florida landfall. The alternative lower-impact scenario is if it gains latitude very quickly once passing Jamaica’s longitude, giving it a much smaller window to intensify before running over Cuba’s high mountains.

The worst possible track is somewhere in between those two extremes — enough time to become a major before reaching Cuba, less chances of the core being disrupted, and therefore a higher possible SFL landfall intensity. To prevent a possible MH into Florida, 98L will either have to turn north sooner or spend more time weakening in the Gulf.

[shah83]

It would get big though, and create a huge surge situation.

[Blown Away]

Shear still hitting 98L, but the low level circulation looks great and convection building on W side. Got to be close to a PTC or TD.

[eastcoastFL]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/dtQKZxxk/goes16-truecolor-98-L-202209222315.gif [/url]

Shear still hitting 98L, but the low level circulation looks great and convection building on W side. Got to be close to a PTC or TD.

There’s still some 30kt shear to the east of the system but it’s very light to the west of it. I suspect convection will continue to deepen as it keeps pulling away from that sheer. But shear is also weird and can pop up wherever so there’s that lol.

[Pelicane]

Matching up well with the HWRF.

[eastcoastFL]

Matching up well with the HWRF.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2022092218/hwrf_satIR_98L_2.png
https://olorin.tropicaltidbits.com/satimages/goes16_ir_98L_202209230135_lat12.9-lon-67.2.jpg

That is so cool. One of my fav parts of tracker storms over the past few years is seeing how well HWRF predicts the IR presentation.

[Hurricaneman]

Matching up well with the HWRF.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2022092218/hwrf_satIR_98L_2.png
https://olorin.tropicaltidbits.com/satimages/goes16_ir_98L_202209230135_lat12.9-lon-67.2.jpg

If anything the convection is more robust than the hwrf and that’s not good, also seems south of the models as of now which will have track impacts farther in the future

[Pelicane]

Matching up well with the HWRF.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2022092218/hwrf_satIR_98L_2.png
https://olorin.tropicaltidbits.com/satimages/goes16_ir_98L_202209230135_lat12.9-lon-67.2.jpg

That is so cool. One of my fav parts of tracker storms over the past few years is seeing how well HWRF predicts the IR presentation.

Yep, I remember how spot on it was with Laura. When it's off, it's really off. But when it gets it right it REALLY gets it right.

[eastcoastFL]

Matching up well with the HWRF.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2022092218/hwrf_satIR_98L_2.png
https://olorin.tropicaltidbits.com/satimages/goes16_ir_98L_202209230135_lat12.9-lon-67.2.jpg

If anything the convection is more robust than the hwrf and that’s not good, also seems south of the models as of now which will have track impacts farther in the future

Looks a bit south and west

[eastcoastFL]

Matching up well with the HWRF.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2022092218/hwrf_satIR_98L_2.png
https://olorin.tropicaltidbits.com/satimages/goes16_ir_98L_202209230135_lat12.9-lon-67.2.jpg

That is so cool. One of my fav parts of tracker storms over the past few years is seeing how well HWRF predicts the IR presentation.

Yep, I remember how spot on it was with Laura. When it's off, it's really off. But when it gets it right it REALLY gets it right.

It hit a home run with Laura and a grand slam with Dorian. But yah it’s either money or trash. I would love to see it become more accurate all around.

[SFLcane]

Almost a TD or already one.

[Hurricaneman]

I honestly think this is a depression right now, sheared but a depression non the less

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1573125720314118145

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/mikefischerwx/status/1573132271879688193





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[cycloneye]

For those who are asking when will recon go, the first fix mission will be in the morning hours around 6:15 AM EDT.

FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
A. 23/1130Z
B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
C. 23/1015Z
D. 14.1N 68.2W
E. 23/1100Z TO 23/1430Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. FIX

[Pelicane]

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1573126076586496004