ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#6101 Postby Michele B » Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:37 pm

dpep4 wrote:Lee County officials blew it. They repeated some of the same mistakes as LA governor Blanco before Katrina. (Though I haven't read yet of the head of NHC and the President having to call Lee County to beg them to start evacuating immediately.) No excuse for not following their own guidelines.

Regardless, the people interviewed saying it was too late to evacuate are also excuse making for their own poor decisions. I checked the roads Tuesday night, both freeways east and north had pretty much cleared out. Designed for evacuation and patrolled until the last minute. It's about a 2 hour drive from Ft. Myers Beach to the Ft. Lauderdale suburbs, even with rain and possible traffic they wouldn't have had to drive all night. Failure to fill up and worried about no gas along the way would be a deterrent, but it was only a few minutes drive to a local shelter.

I could understand apprehension of using the 2-lane cross state routes at night (no way I would have tried US 41 to Miami late that evening) but further north and inland 80, 78, and 70 had improved to just a few slowdowns at local town choke points. I'm sure they were also patrolled as long as possible, probably until near dawn.

Unmentioned by the NY Times (always have to take their "reporting" with a big grain of salt these days) is that Lee County had 10 shelters opened by 9 am Tuesday, and 4 more opened by noon (11 of them schools, so they did at some point cancel school for Tuesday). The shelters accepted pets, so that talking point on twitter is also bull. I recall reports Tuesday night and Wed morning that officials were worried because shelters weren't close to full. I haven't checked, but am sure that people with special needs, mobility issues, and other factors that would hinder their evacuation could call 911 or other resources and get evacuated.

Despite an inexcusable late start in the evacuation call by Lee County, people could have left if they wanted to. They had from Tuesday morning until after midnight. Not a ton of route options but also not a huge population, its spread out for many miles along the coast. This isn't comparable to trying to evacuate 2 million from New Orleans metro.


People are funny,‘aren’t they?

We have a guy who lives near us who just said he would “ride it out at home.”

Now, afterwards, he’s got a genny with NO gas,’and apparently has no food. We see him just sort of meandering around the outside of his house muttering, “This is unbelievable. I can’t believe what is happening..:”

So we listen to him patiently and then feed him!
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Re: ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#6102 Postby Michele B » Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:38 pm

LarryWx wrote:Looking back to the 0Z 9/25 runs at where the models had FL landfalls:

0Z 9/25:
ICON Venice
CMC Cedar Key
GFS Destin
Euro Sarasota
UKMET Port Charlotte

12Z 9/25:
ICON Sarasota
CMC Apalachee Bay
GFS Apalachee Bay
Euro Tampa
UKMET Venice

0Z 9/26:
ICON Venice
CMC Apalachee Bay
GFS Apalachee Bay
Euro Cedar Key
UKMET Port Charlotte

12Z 9/26:
ICON Tampa
CMC Apalachicola
GFS Tampa
Euro Big Bend
UKMET Port Charlotte

0Z 9/27:
ICON Venice
CMC Big Bend
GFS Sarasota
Euro Venice
UKMET just N of Ft Myers

12Z 9/27:
ICON Port Charlotte
CMC Tampa
GFS just N of Port Charlotte
Euro Port Charlotte
UKMET 20 miles S of Ft. Myers

0Z 9/28:
ICON 15 miles S of Port Charlotte
CMC Venice
GFS Port Charlotte
Euro Port Charlotte
UKMET Port Charlotte

My grades on FL landfall only (i.e., excluding SC landfall) for 9/25-8 runs:

UKMET A-
ICON B
Euro C-
GFS D
CMC F


This is helpful. Thank you, Larry!
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Re: ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#6103 Postby StAuggy » Sat Oct 01, 2022 8:12 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/db/Hurricane_Ian%27s_Eye.jpg

Very stunning but heartbreaking image. Merely hours, if not minutes, before the cities experienced Ragnarok. :eek:


I remember some member/members talking about a “buzzsaw” eyewall. You can clearly see the rippled look on the western eyewall in this pic that coincided with the radar image being described
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Re: ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#6104 Postby SconnieCane » Sat Oct 01, 2022 9:50 pm

StAuggy wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/db/Hurricane_Ian%27s_Eye.jpg

Very stunning but heartbreaking image. Merely hours, if not minutes, before the cities experienced Ragnarok. :eek:


I remember some member/members talking about a “buzzsaw” eyewall. You can clearly see the rippled look on the western eyewall in this pic that coincided with the radar image being described


Probably mesovorts. It was noted by a few posters that similar to Michael and perhaps a few other recent high-end major landfalls, the left (west and north) side of Ian's eyewall was more convectively active at landfall and thus likely contained stronger winds despite not having the storm's forward motion added to it like the traditional "right-front" eyewall would. Ian was moving slowly enough at landfall that this effect was probably negligible, while Michael was moving at a good clip yet still did extreme wind damage in Panama City. I've also seen it hypothesized that these sort of intense convective cells within the eyewall might have been responsible for localized extreme wind events outside of the traditional "right-front quadrant" of Andrew's eyewall; and might be the radar representation of the "Fists of God" as Rail Dawg describes them.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#6105 Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Oct 01, 2022 9:50 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/db/Hurricane_Ian%27s_Eye.jpg

Very stunning but heartbreaking image. Merely hours, if not minutes, before the cities experienced Ragnarok. :eek:


A scary and tragic sight. :double: :eek: :( :cry:
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Re: ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#6106 Postby StAuggy » Sat Oct 01, 2022 10:00 pm

SconnieCane wrote:
StAuggy wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/db/Hurricane_Ian%27s_Eye.jpg

Very stunning but heartbreaking image. Merely hours, if not minutes, before the cities experienced Ragnarok. :eek:


I remember some member/members talking about a “buzzsaw” eyewall. You can clearly see the rippled look on the western eyewall in this pic that coincided with the radar image being described


Probably mesovorts. It was noted by a few posters that similar to Michael and perhaps a few other recent high-end major landfalls, the left (west and north) side of Ian's eyewall was more convectively active at landfall and thus likely contained stronger winds despite not having the storm's forward motion added to it like the traditional "right-front" eyewall would. Ian was moving slowly enough at landfall that this effect was probably negligible, while Michael was moving at a good clip yet still did extreme wind damage in Panama City. I've also seen it hypothesized that these sort of intense convective cells within the eyewall might have been responsible for localized extreme wind events outside of the traditional "right-front quadrant" of Andrew's eyewall; and might be the radar representation of the "Fists of God" as Rail Dawg describes them.



I see those “fingers” pointing to the E/SE and I’m thinking I have no idea how convection is building ahead of the direction of rotation of the eyewall yet the updrafts are being pulled back to the W/NW
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Re: ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#6107 Postby Landy » Sat Oct 01, 2022 10:16 pm

WPC has issued its last advisory on Ian. Good riddance.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#6108 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 01, 2022 11:10 pm

This is unofficial, but here is my assessment and best track of Ian:

AL092022, IAN, 41,
20220922, 1200, , LO, 11.7N, 65.1W, 25, 1008,
20220922, 1800, , LO, 12.3N, 66.2W, 25, 1008,
20220923, 0000, , LO, 12.9N, 67.2W, 25, 1007,
20220923, 0600, , TD, 13.6N, 68.3W, 25, 1007,
20220923, 1200, , TD, 14.1N, 69.5W, 30, 1006,
20220923, 1800, , TD, 14.5N, 70.6W, 30, 1006,
20220924, 0000, , TS, 14.7N, 71.6W, 35, 1006,
20220924, 0600, , TS, 14.7N, 72.8W, 35, 1005,
20220924, 1200, , TS, 14.5N, 74.4W, 35, 1005,
20220924, 1800, , TS, 14.4N, 76.1W, 35, 1005,
20220925, 0000, , TS, 14.6N, 77.2W, 40, 1004,
20220925, 0600, , TS, 14.7N, 78.4W, 40, 1004,
20220925, 1200, , TS, 15.1N, 79.4W, 40, 1002,
20220925, 1800, , TS, 15.8N, 80.0W, 45, 998,
20220926, 0000, , TS, 16.7N, 80.9W, 50, 991,
20220926, 0600, , TS, 17.7N, 81.7W, 60, 985,
20220926, 1200, , HU, 18.7N, 82.4W, 65, 980,
20220926, 1800, , HU, 19.7N, 83.0W, 75, 973,
20220927, 0000, , HU, 20.8N, 83.3W, 85, 963,
20220927, 0600, , HU, 21.8N, 83.6W, 105, 954,
20220927, 0845, L, HU, 22.2N, 83.6W, 115, 945,
20220927, 1200, , HU, 22.6N, 83.6W, 105, 952,
20220927, 1800, , HU, 23.5N, 83.3W, 100, 955,
20220928, 0000, , HU, 24.4N, 83.0W, 105, 949,
20220928, 0145, L, HU, 24.6N, 82.9W, 110, 947,
20220928, 0600, , HU, 25.2N, 82.9W, 120, 941,
20220928, 1200, , HU, 26.0N, 82.7W, 140, 935,
20220928, 1800, , HU, 26.6N, 82.4W, 130, 939,
20220928, 1915, L, HU, 26.7N, 82.3W, 125, 941,
20220929, 0000, , HU, 27.2N, 81.7W, 90, 962,
20220929, 0600, , HU, 27.7N, 81.1W, 70, 981,
20220929, 1200, , HU, 28.4N, 80.6W, 65, 987,
20220929, 1800, , HU, 28.9N, 80.1W, 65, 987,
20220930, 0000, , HU, 29.6N, 79.4W, 70, 985,
20220930, 0600, , HU, 30.3N, 79.1W, 75, 983,
20220930, 1200, , HU, 31.5N, 79.0W, 75, 978,
20220930, 1800, , EX, 33.3N, 79.0W, 70, 977,
20220930, 1900, L, EX, 33.5N, 79.0W, 70, 977,
20221001, 0000, , EX, 34.4N, 79.2W, 50, 986,
20221001, 0600, , EX, 35.8N, 79.6W, 30, 999,
20221001, 1200, , EX, 36.6N, 79.3W, 25, 1006,

* Genesis is unchanged. Most of the early life of Ian sees only minor changes, which are based on straightening the track or adjustments based on Recon (+/- 5 kt).

* The first rapid intensification I believe was even more rapid. There wasn't much Recon data between 0400Z (958 mb) and 1000Z, after landfall (947 mb). The wind data first supported major hurricane intensity at 0400Z at which point the pressure was 958 mb. Based on the significant deepening and the winds upon return from Cuba, the intensity at Cuban landfall I estimate to be 115 kt. Likewise, the lower pressure - 945 mb - assumes slight filling in the 75 minutes over flat lands.

* The eyewall replacement is smoothed out, as there were some dramatic intensity changes that a few were likely unrepresentative. The assumption is slight deepening up to Dry Tortugas landfall during that time. The 110 kt intensity at that landfall is based on wind data shortly after.

* The peak intensity is a bit challenging. The highest flight-level winds were 160 kt at about 8,000 feet, which translates to about 140 kt at the surface (the same calculations were used in Irma in the Caribbean). The SFMR peaked at 137 kt, although there are questions about that reading even if it is backed by flight-level winds. Dvorak estimates were around T7.0, and radar supported 135-140 kt. The pressure was quite high though, likely peaking around 935 mb. With uncertainty, the peak intensity I believe was 140 kt at 1200Z September 28.

* Some weakening occurred leading up to landfall at Cayo Costa. Flight-level winds dropped significantly and radar velocities also decreased. The pressure also rose, with an estimate of 941 mb at landfall based on Recon and surface data. The highest flight-level winds I saw near landfall were 138 kt, while the SFMR is unreliable. My estimated landfall intensity after seeing all the data is 125 kt.

* Based on radar data, surface observations from New Smyrna Beach and the winds in the first Recon mission in the Atlantic, I believe Ian remained a hurricane all the way across Florida. There were likely stronger winds over water and near the core, which was not well sampled.

* Extratropical transition is moved up to 1800Z, BEFORE landfall in South Carolina. The center was diffuse at the time, while there was likely frontal features by then. The landfall position I believe was farther east, near Murrells Inlet, based on pressure data from Josh Morgerman as well as Myrtle Beach ASOS data. At that time, I estimate winds were 70 kt. That said, it is probable that hurricane conditions occurred in South Carolina before becoming extratropical.
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Sat Oct 22, 2022 2:12 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#6109 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 01, 2022 11:10 pm

Landy wrote:WPC has issued its last advisory on Ian. Good riddance.


Good riddance indeed! The :Can: is where Ian is headed. Won't be back in 2028!
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Re: ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#6110 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Oct 01, 2022 11:11 pm

Now that Ian has officially disappeared, all I have to say is one word.


“Damn.”
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Re: ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#6111 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Oct 02, 2022 12:16 am

Good riddance Ian. You brought hell to too many. Now let’s see if we can skate through the rest of the season without another land falling storm…please.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#6112 Postby Kazmit » Sun Oct 02, 2022 12:18 am

Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#6113 Postby ncforecaster89 » Sun Oct 02, 2022 1:19 am

CrazyC83 wrote:This is unofficial, but here is my assessment and best track of Ian:

* The peak intensity is a bit challenging. The highest flight-level winds were 160 kt at about 8,000 feet, which translates to about 140 kt at the surface (the same calculations were used in Irma in the Caribbean). The SFMR peaked at 137 kt, although there are questions about that reading even if it is backed by flight-level winds. Dvorak estimates were around T7.0, and radar supported 135-140 kt. The pressure was quite high though, likely peaking around 935 mb. With uncertainty, the peak intensity I believe was 140 kt at 1200Z September 28.

* Some weakening occurred leading up to landfall at Cayo Costa. Flight-level winds dropped significantly and radar velocities also decreased. The pressure also rose, with an estimate of 941 mb at landfall based on Recon and surface data. The highest flight-level winds I saw near landfall were 138 kt, while the SFMR is unreliable. My estimated landfall intensity after seeing all the data is 125 kt.

* Based on radar data, surface observations from New Smyrna Beach and the winds in the first Recon mission in the Atlantic, I believe Ian remained a hurricane all the way across Florida. There were likely stronger winds over water and near the core, which was not well sampled.

* Extratropical transition is moved up to 1800Z, BEFORE landfall in South Carolina. The center was diffuse at the time, while there was likely frontal features by then. The landfall position I believe was farther east, near Murrells Inlet, based on pressure data from Josh Morgerman as well as Myrtle Beach ASOS data. At that time, I estimate winds were 70 kt. That said, it is probable that hurricane conditions occurred in South Carolina before becoming extratropical.


Hi Crazy! Always appreciate the time and effort you put into making these assessments.

I agree with you on the peak intensity estimate of a 140 kt Cat 5 hurricane as well as the 70 kt estimate you place on the SC landfall. With regard to the SWFL landfall, I’d be inclined to err on the higher-end by keeping the operational intensity of 130 kt…with the assumption RECON may have under-sampled the highest FLWs.

Although I too believe the data suggests Ian had become a warm-seclusion ET storm prior to crossing the SC shoreline, it’s debatable whether the NHC will make that change in post-season analysis. On the ground, it most certainly felt like a post-tropical cyclone.

Based on the pressure readings I recorded at Ian’s landfall in SC, it appears the center likely crossed the coast between Litchfield Beach (where I recorded a lowest pressure of 979.1 mb in the eye) and Murrels Inlet (where I recorded 978.5 mb).
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Re: ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#6114 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sun Oct 02, 2022 1:56 am

Today the life of Ian ends with this very good take.
 https://twitter.com/NickGormanWX/status/1576341982917824513


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Re: ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#6115 Postby StAuggy » Sun Oct 02, 2022 1:59 am

For those of you following the Lee County EM failure topic this thread breaks down the plan they had in place and how they failed to follow it. It’s not really defensible when you see the timeline here of what they knew and when

https://twitter.com/ByMikeBaker/status/ ... syJ2RS4HKQ
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Re: ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#6116 Postby Rail Dawg » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:09 am

Michele B wrote:
LarryWx wrote:Looking back to the 0Z 9/25 runs at where the models had FL landfalls:

0Z 9/25:
ICON Venice
CMC Cedar Key
GFS Destin
Euro Sarasota
UKMET Port Charlotte

12Z 9/25:
ICON Sarasota
CMC Apalachee Bay
GFS Apalachee Bay
Euro Tampa
UKMET Venice

0Z 9/26:
ICON Venice
CMC Apalachee Bay
GFS Apalachee Bay
Euro Cedar Key
UKMET Port Charlotte

12Z 9/26:
ICON Tampa
CMC Apalachicola
GFS Tampa
Euro Big Bend
UKMET Port Charlotte

0Z 9/27:
ICON Venice
CMC Big Bend
GFS Sarasota
Euro Venice
UKMET just N of Ft Myers

12Z 9/27:
ICON Port Charlotte
CMC Tampa
GFS just N of Port Charlotte
Euro Port Charlotte
UKMET 20 miles S of Ft. Myers

0Z 9/28:
ICON 15 miles S of Port Charlotte
CMC Venice
GFS Port Charlotte
Euro Port Charlotte
UKMET Port Charlotte

My grades on FL landfall only (i.e., excluding SC landfall) for 9/25-8 runs:

UKMET A-
ICON B
Euro C-
GFS D
CMC F


This is helpful. Thank you, Larry!


Yes this is cool to see. Thanks Larry!

Chuck
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Re: ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#6117 Postby Rail Dawg » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:14 am

SconnieCane wrote:
StAuggy wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/db/Hurricane_Ian%27s_Eye.jpg

Very stunning but heartbreaking image. Merely hours, if not minutes, before the cities experienced Ragnarok. :eek:


I remember some member/members talking about a “buzzsaw” eyewall. You can clearly see the rippled look on the western eyewall in this pic that coincided with the radar image being described


Probably mesovorts. It was noted by a few posters that similar to Michael and perhaps a few other recent high-end major landfalls, the left (west and north) side of Ian's eyewall was more convectively active at landfall and thus likely contained stronger winds despite not having the storm's forward motion added to it like the traditional "right-front" eyewall would. Ian was moving slowly enough at landfall that this effect was probably negligible, while Michael was moving at a good clip yet still did extreme wind damage in Panama City. I've also seen it hypothesized that these sort of intense convective cells within the eyewall might have been responsible for localized extreme wind events outside of the traditional "right-front quadrant" of Andrew's eyewall; and might be the radar representation of the "Fists of God" as Rail Dawg describes them.


Thanks Sconnie for the nod about the “Fists of God”.

It’s great to see them being discussed! They are the real power in a major hurricane.

Chuck
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Re: ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#6118 Postby Michele B » Sun Oct 02, 2022 6:23 am

CrazyC83 wrote:This is unofficial, but here is my assessment and best track of Ian:

AL092022, IAN, 41,
20220922, 1200, , LO, 11.7N, 65.1W, 25, 1008,
20220922, 1800, , LO, 12.3N, 66.2W, 25, 1008,
20220923, 0000, , LO, 12.9N, 67.2W, 25, 1007,
20220923, 0600, , TD, 13.6N, 68.3W, 25, 1007,
20220923, 1200, , TD, 14.1N, 69.5W, 30, 1006,
20220923, 1800, , TD, 14.5N, 70.6W, 30, 1006,
20220924, 0000, , TS, 14.7N, 71.6W, 35, 1006,
20220924, 0600, , TS, 14.7N, 72.8W, 35, 1005,
20220924, 1200, , TS, 14.5N, 74.4W, 35, 1005,
20220924, 1800, , TS, 14.4N, 76.1W, 35, 1005,
20220925, 0000, , TS, 14.6N, 77.2W, 40, 1004,
20220925, 0600, , TS, 14.7N, 78.4W, 40, 1004,
20220925, 1200, , TS, 15.1N, 79.4W, 40, 1002,
20220925, 1800, , TS, 15.8N, 80.0W, 45, 998,
20220926, 0000, , TS, 16.7N, 80.9W, 50, 991,
20220926, 0600, , TS, 17.7N, 81.7W, 60, 985,
20220926, 1200, , HU, 18.7N, 82.4W, 65, 980,
20220926, 1800, , HU, 19.7N, 83.0W, 75, 973,
20220927, 0000, , HU, 20.8N, 83.3W, 85, 963,
20220927, 0600, , HU, 21.8N, 83.6W, 105, 954,
20220927, 0845, L, HU, 22.2N, 83.6W, 115, 945,
20220927, 1200, , HU, 22.6N, 83.6W, 105, 952,
20220927, 1800, , HU, 23.5N, 83.3W, 100, 955,
20220928, 0000, , HU, 24.4N, 83.0W, 105, 949,
20220928, 0145, L, HU, 24.6N, 82.9W, 110, 947,
20220928, 0600, , HU, 25.2N, 82.9W, 120, 941,
20220928, 1200, , HU, 26.0N, 82.7W, 140, 935,
20220928, 1800, , HU, 26.6N, 82.4W, 130, 939,
20220927, 1915, L, HU, 26.7N, 82.3W, 125, 941,
20220929, 0000, , HU, 27.2N, 81.7W, 95, 955,
20220929, 0600, , HU, 27.7N, 81.1W, 70, 982,
20220929, 1200, , HU, 28.4N, 80.6W, 65, 988,
20220929, 1800, , HU, 28.9N, 80.1W, 65, 987,
20220930, 0000, , HU, 29.6N, 79.4W, 70, 985,
20220930, 0600, , HU, 30.3N, 79.1W, 75, 983,
20220930, 1200, , HU, 31.5N, 79.0W, 75, 978,
20220930, 1800, , EX, 33.3N, 79.0W, 70, 977,
20220930, 1900, L, EX, 33.5N, 79.0W, 70, 977,
20221001, 0000, , EX, 34.4N, 79.2W, 50, 989,
20221001, 0600, , EX, 35.8N, 79.6W, 30, 1004,
20221001, 1200, , EX, 36.6N, 79.3W, 20, 1008,

* Genesis is unchanged. Most of the early life of Ian sees only minor changes, which are based on straightening the track or adjustments based on Recon (+/- 5 kt).

* The first rapid intensification I believe was even more rapid. There wasn't much Recon data between 0400Z (958 mb) and 1000Z, after landfall (947 mb). The wind data first supported major hurricane intensity at 0400Z at which point the pressure was 958 mb. Based on the significant deepening and the winds upon return from Cuba, the intensity at Cuban landfall I estimate to be 115 kt. Likewise, the lower pressure - 945 mb - assumes slight filling in the 75 minutes over flat lands.

* The eyewall replacement is smoothed out, as there were some dramatic intensity changes that a few were likely unrepresentative. The assumption is slight deepening up to Dry Tortugas landfall during that time. The 110 kt intensity at that landfall is based on wind data shortly after.

* The peak intensity is a bit challenging. The highest flight-level winds were 160 kt at about 8,000 feet, which translates to about 140 kt at the surface (the same calculations were used in Irma in the Caribbean). The SFMR peaked at 137 kt, although there are questions about that reading even if it is backed by flight-level winds. Dvorak estimates were around T7.0, and radar supported 135-140 kt. The pressure was quite high though, likely peaking around 935 mb. With uncertainty, the peak intensity I believe was 140 kt at 1200Z September 28.

* Some weakening occurred leading up to landfall at Cayo Costa. Flight-level winds dropped significantly and radar velocities also decreased. The pressure also rose, with an estimate of 941 mb at landfall based on Recon and surface data. The highest flight-level winds I saw near landfall were 138 kt, while the SFMR is unreliable. My estimated landfall intensity after seeing all the data is 125 kt.

* Based on radar data, surface observations from New Smyrna Beach and the winds in the first Recon mission in the Atlantic, I believe Ian remained a hurricane all the way across Florida. There were likely stronger winds over water and near the core, which was not well sampled.

* Extratropical transition is moved up to 1800Z, BEFORE landfall in South Carolina. The center was diffuse at the time, while there was likely frontal features by then. The landfall position I believe was farther east, near Murrells Inlet, based on pressure data from Josh Morgerman as well as Myrtle Beach ASOS data. At that time, I estimate winds were 70 kt. That said, it is probable that hurricane conditions occurred in South Carolina before becoming extratropical.



Flight level winds got insane at one point. IDK what was going on. I heard an interview with a pilot from one of the recon missions. He reported that his crew was “losing it and (literally) crapping their pants” during one flight. He didn’t use those exact words…something much more polite, but you knew that’s what he was saying.

These were seasoned crews who do this type of mission all the time,’but the strength and power from this storm “beat” them.

Officials are saying this was the fifth strongest storm in recorded history? I don’t believe it’s that low! When even hurricane flights couldn’t go into it, and experienced chasers had to back off….
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Cleo - 1964, Betsy - 1965, David - 1979, Andrew - 1992, Charlie (Francis, Ivan, Jeanne) - 2004, Irma - 2017, Ian - 2022

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Re: ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#6119 Postby Michele B » Sun Oct 02, 2022 6:28 am

Rail Dawg wrote:
SconnieCane wrote:
StAuggy wrote:
I remember some member/members talking about a “buzzsaw” eyewall. You can clearly see the rippled look on the western eyewall in this pic that coincided with the radar image being described


Probably mesovorts. It was noted by a few posters that similar to Michael and perhaps a few other recent high-end major landfalls, the left (west and north) side of Ian's eyewall was more convectively active at landfall and thus likely contained stronger winds despite not having the storm's forward motion added to it like the traditional "right-front" eyewall would. Ian was moving slowly enough at landfall that this effect was probably negligible, while Michael was moving at a good clip yet still did extreme wind damage in Panama City. I've also seen it hypothesized that these sort of intense convective cells within the eyewall might have been responsible for localized extreme wind events outside of the traditional "right-front quadrant" of Andrew's eyewall; and might be the radar representation of the "Fists of God" as Rail Dawg describes them.


Thanks Sconnie for the nod about the “Fists of God”.

It’s great to see them being discussed! They are the real power in a major hurricane.

Chuck


Aren’t those “fists of God” really just tornadoes (mesovorts) swirling around the eye wall - for us laypeople?
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Cleo - 1964, Betsy - 1965, David - 1979, Andrew - 1992, Charlie (Francis, Ivan, Jeanne) - 2004, Irma - 2017, Ian - 2022

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Re: ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussi

#6120 Postby Rail Dawg » Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:40 am

Michele B wrote:
Rail Dawg wrote:
SconnieCane wrote:
Probably mesovorts. It was noted by a few posters that similar to Michael and perhaps a few other recent high-end major landfalls, the left (west and north) side of Ian's eyewall was more convectively active at landfall and thus likely contained stronger winds despite not having the storm's forward motion added to it like the traditional "right-front" eyewall would. Ian was moving slowly enough at landfall that this effect was probably negligible, while Michael was moving at a good clip yet still did extreme wind damage in Panama City. I've also seen it hypothesized that these sort of intense convective cells within the eyewall might have been responsible for localized extreme wind events outside of the traditional "right-front quadrant" of Andrew's eyewall; and might be the radar representation of the "Fists of God" as Rail Dawg describes them.


Thanks Sconnie for the nod about the “Fists of God”.

It’s great to see them being discussed! They are the real power in a major hurricane.

Chuck


Aren’t those “fists of God” really just tornadoes (mesovorts) swirling around the eye wall - for us laypeople?



The Fists of God are almost horizontal as they drop from the sky. They don’t appear to have the rotation you see in tornadoes. They also don’t sound like a tornado. They sound like a fighter jet screeching by overhead before they drop down.

Chuck

They are a phenomenon

Chuck
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Although I have been a hurricane forecaster since 1980 that only means I've been wrong lots of times.


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