ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ChrisH-UK]

Ian has made landfall in Cuba and is now moving over Cuba.

[skyline385]

The latest SHIPS is still ridiculous with 33% chance of 25 kts increase in 24 hours and 26% chance of 30 kts in 24 hours. The max potential intensity also remains between 161-171 kts for the next 48 hours. Ian is not done yet unfortunately.


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[NDG]

Wow, Ian's eye still looks great 2.5 hrs after making landfall, definitely it was on a strengthening phase prior to making landfall.

[d3v123]

Woke up to no more doubt about evacuating this morning! Getting the last boards up and outta here

[dukeblue219]

Recon is about to make an eye pass over Cuba, has this happened before?

I don't think I've ever seen an eye pass over *land* before, much less Cuba.

[skyline385]

Wow




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[Jr0d]

Tornado warning for Islamorada (Middle Keys) as of this post. 2nd one in that general area tonight.

[StAuggy]

The latest SHIPS is still ridiculous with 33% chance of 25 kts increase in 24 hours and 26% chance of 30 kts in 24 hours. The max potential intensity also remains between 161-171 kts for the next 48 hours. Ian is not done yet unfortunately.


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It’s going to make a run at 5. The interaction as it approached and is still over Cuba couldn’t have gone any better as far as it’s strength and core is concerned.

[aspen]

After ~2.5 hours, Ian is about or a little more than halfway across Cuba. The center should be fully back over water by 13:00-13:30z.

[dukeblue219]

I wonder if we'll ever know how strong this storm was right at landfall. That is as good an eye presentation on radar as I've ever seen.

Any live weather stations available in W Cuba?

[NDG]

Recon is about to make an eye pass over Cuba, has this happened before?

I don't think I've ever seen an eye pass over *land* before, much less Cuba.

Yes, they did that a couple of years ago or so, I can't remember which storm it was.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Looks like Ian is starting to go over the Cordillera de Guaniguanico. Highest point is ~2,293. I’m not sure how high a mountainous area has to be to disrupt the low level circulation, hopefully someone can chime in on that part. If Ian is still holding on strong after going over the mountains, I don’t see how this doesn’t AT LEAST touch 150 mph.

[Iceresistance]

VDM is out, the pressure is unknown but the eye is closed and it is 20 Nautical Miles wide Circular.

[Fancy1001]

Looks like the eye is holding together pretty well.

[GCANE]

Current winds, just west of Tampa

@300mb: 35 knt SSW
@500mb: 5 knt N

CAPE: 2500

[AdamFirst]

I wonder if we'll ever know how strong this storm was right at landfall. That is as good an eye presentation on radar as I've ever seen.

Any live weather stations available in W Cuba?

They've gotten great at post season analysis. My personal belief is that this was category 4 at landfall with a pressure around 940.

Not many live observations - the Cuban Meteorological Service has a Twitter account but they haven't posted in a few hours. They reported a gust of 130 MPH in Pinar Del Rio a few hours ago, in the northern eyewall. Right now the eye is over Pinar Del Rio.

[NDG]

VDM is out, the pressure is unknown but the eye is closed and it is 20 Nautical Miles wide Circular.

Yes, they couldn't drop a dropsonde in the eye since is inland but the extrap pressure was 947mb, highest flight level winds was 105 knots.
Amazing, the pressure has remained at least steady.

[TallyTracker]

I wonder if we'll ever know how strong this storm was right at landfall. That is as good an eye presentation on radar as I've ever seen.

Any live weather stations available in W Cuba?

I heard a report of a 115 kt wind gust at Pinar Del Rio earlier in the thread. Don’t know the specifics like mounting height but that would definitely support a Cat 3 landfall intensity.

[Iceresistance]

Eyewall is still producing lightning over Cuba.

[skyline385]

I wonder if we'll ever know how strong this storm was right at landfall. That is as good an eye presentation on radar as I've ever seen.

Any live weather stations available in W Cuba?

They've gotten great at post season analysis. My personal belief is that this was category 4 at landfall with a pressure around 940.

Not many live observations - the Cuban Meteorological Service has a Twitter account but they haven't posted in a few hours. They reported a gust of 130 MPH in Pinar Del Rio a few hours ago, in the northern eyewall. Right now the eye is over Pinar Del Rio.

130mph just doesn’t sound like a C4 imo, most likely a C3


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