ATL: IAN - Models

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF SIM IR as it crosses Cuba

[SouthFLTropics]

HMON is NE of the 12z position as well but not as strong... yet.

[Fancy1001]

HWRF going beast mode, up to 130 knots and NE of the 12z position.

Can you post a link. tidbits is really slow and behind.

[TheHurricaneGod]

The HWRF looks like it sped up vs 12z. faster moving storm. This will probably end up further east

[eastcoastFL]

Windfield expands a bit after interacting with Cuba

[eastcoastFL]

114 hours

[jlauderdal]

Windfield expands a bit after interacting with Cuba

HWRF always looking to maximize conditions.

[AtlanticWind]

Almost all GFS ensembles were east of operational it looks like

[PTrackerLA]

Huge east shift in 18z GEFS ensembles. Euro may be scoring the W here, we may know with certainty by tomorrow.

[eastcoastFL]

Windfield expands a bit after interacting with Cuba

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2022092218/hwrf_ref_98L_35.png

HWRF always looking to maximize conditions.

It sure does and this one is no exception. It’s going to town once it hits that warm pool in the gulf.

[CronkPSU]

114 hours

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2022092218/hwrf_mslp_wind_98L_39.png

YIKES!!! and that is AFTER going over Cuba and really hitting the gulf and its warm waters!?!?

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF looks like it wobbles NW from 114 to 120 hours unless I’m not seeing this right?

[aspen]

The HWRF has a lot of competing bands and partial eyewalls inside 98L after passing Jamaica’s latitude, and this doesn’t sort out until its Western Cuba landfall. I would lean toward the HWRF sniffing out some internal dynamics ahead of time, but it got all of Fiona’s EWRCs totally wrong — it missed the one the day after its DR landfall but forecasted one that should’ve started last night. Only time will tell what 98L’s core will end up like.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Until a center develops, even while following the atmospheric forecasts now, the where and when is any models guess.

[skyline385]

18Z HWRF ends at 935mb

[SFLcane]

Surprise! Lol

[Spacecoast]

18z GEFS: Compared to 12z...



Edt SFLCANE beat me to it!

[skyline385]

18Z GEFS

[Iceresistance]

There are too many 'what ifs' out there with 98L right now that may not be factored with the models, these are my biggest ones.

What if the system refuses the northward turn until it's closer to the Western Caribbean and therefore dodges Cuba and the Yucatan completely by threading the needle?
What if the trough that is going to affect the system direction and/or strength was weaker or stronger than expected?
What if the storm unexpectedly explosively intensified in an area that was not expected to do so?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[AJC3]

'The center hasn't even formed yet' talk is quickly on its way to becoming null and void from here on out. In fact, this morning's scatterometer data (13Z-14Z) and satellite derived winds showed a pretty well-defined surface-850MB vorticity center that should have gone into the initialization of the 18Z model guidance, and I suspect it will be at least as well-defined in the upcoming 00Z runs. How well the model guidance initializes it is another matter, however we're at the point now where we have a decent LL center fix to work with.