ATL: IAN - Models

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chris_fit
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ATL: IAN - Models

#1 Postby chris_fit » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:13 am

Models here

Start off with 06Z GFS
Image


00Z ECMF
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Last edited by chris_fit on Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#2 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:14 am

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#3 Postby Jelmergraaff » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:15 am

Compared to this morning (06z vs 00z), the ECMWF Ensemble spread is quite a bit higher for coming Monday. This indicates that an increasing number of members is showing (some) development of invest 98L. Most members pretty far southwest to be honest, almost going into Central-America.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#4 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:30 am

:double:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#5 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:39 am


Right on the line( I know don't focus on the line) beyond 7 days, we will take that solution and run with it for a few days and be happy. Wxman57 is on board with multiple model support, Galveston to the Outerbanks should start their gennys today. This is a gulf coast, Florida peninsula threat then as it pulls out up the east coast. I think we get one more major in October and the season goes at least two weeks longer than"normal". This setup is very dangerous and produces major hurricanes up to a 5 but way too early for intensity predictions other than to say the setup looks explosive.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#6 Postby Spacecoast » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:44 am

Comparing 06z ECENS to 0z: More members south
(black square is 0z ECMF @ 144hrs)
Image
Image

06z HWRF:
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Last edited by Spacecoast on Tue Sep 20, 2022 9:09 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#7 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:46 am

Spacecoast wrote:Comparing 06z ECENSTO 0z: More members south
(black square is 0z ECMF @ 144hrs)
https://i.ibb.co/yVk7bCK/cfc.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/n7f3q3r/cfd.jpg


Yes ECMWF does not develop this wave much until the western caribbean. I do though think the gfs/gefs has this one pigged imo.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#8 Postby caneseddy » Tue Sep 20, 2022 9:29 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#9 Postby MississippiWx » Tue Sep 20, 2022 9:58 am



Seems like pretty normal biases so far. GFS aggressive, Euro non-aggressive. CMC would be the best forecast until we see just how quickly 98L organizes. I continue to think a stronger short term for 98L probably means an Eastern Gulf (possibly FL Peninsula or east of there) track.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#10 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:50 am

12z GFS has this intensifying as it passes the islands
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#11 Postby Spacecoast » Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:50 am

12z ICON: Same position as 0z ECMF, only much stronger
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#12 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:55 am

GFS a bit faster this run, and slightly weaker short term.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#13 Postby boca » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:04 am

I think Mobile Al on this run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#14 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:05 am

boca wrote:I think Mobile Al on this run.


Or Central America.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#15 Postby lsuhurricane » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:07 am

20mbs weaker on this run vs 06z. Interestingly though, same positions between runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#16 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:16 am

GFS back at it again with a major hurricane.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#17 Postby jfk08c » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:18 am

Starts the northward turn right after Jamaica again. Might be a tad west this run due to lower strength. Although it seems like RI got it down a similar pressure as the last run as it approaches Cuba
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#18 Postby TheHurricaneGod » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:21 am

Based on the past 5 runs or so of the GFS, I think the wildcard is the trough over the east coast, after it passes Jamaica
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#19 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:22 am

Its down to 944mb. lower than the previous run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#20 Postby toad strangler » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:23 am

This should end up west of 6z into the GOM
Last edited by toad strangler on Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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