ATL: IAN - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3949
Age: 27
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#21 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:23 am

Trough lifting up faster this run, SW of 06z.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4162
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:
Contact toad strangler

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#22 Postby toad strangler » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:24 am

trough out and ridge building back in again. Another trap it looks like.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
InfernoFlameCat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1966
Age: 21
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
Location: Buford, GA

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#23 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:26 am

Future storm is now further west and makes landfall in western Cuba in the low 940s.
0 likes   
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Top
User avatar
InfernoFlameCat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1966
Age: 21
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
Location: Buford, GA

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#24 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:31 am

942mb storm in the low gulf :double: . Gfs going crazy.
0 likes   
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Top
User avatar
InfernoFlameCat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1966
Age: 21
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
Location: Buford, GA

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#25 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:31 am

I think this is going to be the first Cat 5 run.
0 likes   
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Top
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3949
Age: 27
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#26 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:32 am

Here comes the North turn.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
SunnyThoughts
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2263
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
Location: Pensacola, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#27 Postby SunnyThoughts » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:32 am

InfernoFlameCat wrote:I think this is going to be the first Cat 5 run.


The farther west, more time over water for sure. I hope not.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8914
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#28 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:33 am

InfernoFlameCat wrote:942mb storm in the low gulf :double: . Gfs going crazy.


I'm predicting 920s-900s at peak.
2 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Top
User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#29 Postby skyline385 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:33 am

Yikes Image


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4162
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:
Contact toad strangler

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#30 Postby toad strangler » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:33 am

absolutely TRAPPED.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#31 Postby skyline385 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:35 am

Also in case anyone missed it, 98L already has an elongated circulation so it could possibly develop ahead of schedule


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
3 likes   
Top
User avatar
InfernoFlameCat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1966
Age: 21
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
Location: Buford, GA

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#32 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:36 am

Oh man. 932mb in the gulf. Except this is no phantom.
1 likes   
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Top
tomatkins
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 220
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:11 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#33 Postby tomatkins » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:37 am

skyline385 wrote:Also in case anyone missed it, 98L already has an elongated circulation so it could possibly develop ahead of schedule


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Are we seeing the familiar stronger = earlier turn north dynamic. Because if so, early strengthening could be a saving grace for the western Caribbean and possibly the US as well.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#34 Postby skyline385 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:40 am

Think it’s getting eroded by the front when trapped, we saw it in a previous run too where it then rapidly weakened to landfall


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4162
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:
Contact toad strangler

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#35 Postby toad strangler » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:40 am

Heading for the mid panhandle. :eek:
0 likes   
Top
Fancy1001
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 452
Joined: Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:16 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#36 Postby Fancy1001 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:40 am

HWRF starts
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
InfernoFlameCat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1966
Age: 21
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
Location: Buford, GA

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#37 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:41 am

Slams into the Florida Panhandle. In the same spot as Michael did.
0 likes   
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Top
User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1958
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#38 Postby Teban54 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:41 am

12z GFS wants Hermine 2022 to be a Hermine 2016 repeat, but at much higher intensity.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
sweetpea
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 841
Age: 56
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2005 5:49 pm
Location: Sopchoppy, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#39 Postby sweetpea » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:41 am

Mod please delete, wrong thread. Thank you
Last edited by sweetpea on Tue Sep 20, 2022 12:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
TheHurricaneGod
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 146
Age: 21
Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2020 6:19 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#40 Postby TheHurricaneGod » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:42 am

verbatim its a pretty large wind field so the rest of S FL gets 25 mph winds
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2022”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 73 guests