ATL: IAN - Models

[skyline385]

This GFS run is very similar to ICON, pretty much stalls over the Treasure coast

[BobHarlem]

0z GFS is also stalling or doing a mini loop right over Florida too.

[SoupBone]

That's less than 5 days away too. That's going to have to show up on the first forecast if they call this PTC 9 or TD 9 tomorrow morning (say, at the 5 am advisory).

We're not in fantasyland anymore, and it's come much closer to the Euro. From Tampa to Fort Meyers needs to be seriously paying attention to this.

[caneseddy]

So far these model runs are all converging on landfall on the Florida Peninsula from Ft.Myers to the Keys

Will Euro now shift west? Stay tuned!

CMC also hits Fort Myers area

[CrazyC83]

That's less than 5 days away too. That's going to have to show up on the first forecast if they call this PTC 9 or TD 9 tomorrow morning (say, at the 5 am advisory).

We're not in fantasyland anymore, and it's come much closer to the Euro. From Tampa to Fort Meyers needs to be seriously paying attention to this.

If it's heading for the Florida Peninsula, it will be within 6 days. That's why we really need to know the strength of the features in the area. Any northern Gulf solution would be much slower since that involves waiting for the next trough.

[MetroMike]

CMC rides it up the coast from Ft Myers weakening.

[Kazmit]

Georgia landfall??

[PandaCitrus]

That stall for what 24 to 36 hours will cause major flooding issues.

[skyline385]

CMC almost stalling over Florida too, thats all 3 of the 0Z models with the stall

[tomatkins]

CMC rides it up the coast from Ft Myers weakening.

So CMC, GFS, and ICON all show a landfall in Florida followed by a slow northernish motion. Not great.

[Kazmit]

[caneseddy]

So far we have:

Icon- landfalls Naples and eyewall rakes entire Florida East Coast from South Florida to almost Daytona

GFS: landfalls Port Charlotte/Fort Myers area and then meanders around the state

CMC: landfalls fort Myers and meanders around North Central Florida

UKMET: landfalls Fort Myers and heads NE

What will Euro show?

A new wrinkle in these runs that was not previously seen is they all show this system meandering around the state instead of a straight shot NE like Wilma which in this instance is worse case scenario..

[SouthFLTropics]

After seeing these 00z runs, I don’t envy the forecasters at the NHC one bit. They’ve got a tall task in front of them.

[Steve]

Georgia landfall??

Trippy track.

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1573164224754470913

[CrazyC83]

Are any G-IV missions planned? That would go a long way right now. Gonzo would be a big help.

[skyline385]

Are any G-IV missions planned? That would go a long way right now. Gonzo would be a big help.

Andy said earlier that they are mobilizing the whole recon fleet for the weekend

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1573000974872055808

[shah83]

Check out the rainfall totals for the GFS, CMC. CMC, lowkey, is sort of a disaster.

[skyline385]

Also looks like there were 7 flight level reconnaissance data dumps in today's 0Z run

[skyline385]

Check out the rainfall totals for the GFS, CMC. CMC, lowkey, is sort of a disaster.

wow, you weren't kidding.