LarryWx wrote: I'm favoring the 12Z UKMET track (just S of Myrtle Beach) over the 12Z Euro (just S of CHS) for the 2nd landfall. As of 2PM EDT, whereas the Euro had it at 29.1N, 80.0W, the better performing (for Ian) UKMET had Ian at 28.9N, 80.0W, which is exactly where the NHC had it then. So, advantage goes to UKMET as of then.
Looking ahead, both the 11 AM NHC and the 12Z Euro have Ian going no further west than 79.9W while still east of N FL. But the 12Z UKMET gets it further east to 79.4W. That will be a key. Will Ian while still east of N FL get close to the 79.4W of the UKMET or will it lag behind and be closer to the NHC/Euro longitudes of 79.9W?
The NHC adjusted the SC landfall slightly from Charleston on the 11 AM track to 20 miles NE of Charleston on the 5 PM track.
Will it end up landfalling further NE than that? I had said in my prior post that I was favoring the 12Z UKMET's just S of Myrtle Beach over the 1Z Euro's just S of Charleston based on the 2 PM EDT actual of 28.9N, 80.0W, as compared to the 2 PM of the UK/Euro as it then matched the UKMET. But let's now add the 5 PM location to the mix:
NHC actual locations:
11 AM 28.7N, 80.4W
2 PM 28.9N, 80.0W
5 PM 29.3N, 79.9W
So, realizing that wobbling can cause deception as regards the heading, note the sharp directional change for 2 PM-5 PM vs the prior 3 hours. From 11 AM to 2 PM, it moved ENE. But from 2 PM to 5 PM, it moved NNE. The 12Z UKMET gets it to 79.4W as of 8PM vs the 12Z Euro's 79.9W. IF Ian has really turned NNE for good, it won't make it to 79.4 at 8 PM and the Euro 79.9 may end up closer at 8 PM. If the Euro ends up closer, then I'd probably change my prediction from favoring the 12Z UKMET to favoring the 12Z Euro for the track to SC, which would mean closer to Charleston than Myrtle Beach.
