ATL: IAN - Models

[Pelicane]

Essentially what the GFS wants to do is refocus the center to the more vigorous MLC. This is the 500 mb plot, and if you compare it the 850 mb one you'll see the two are offset.
https://imgur.com/KSqPSa8

So here is the Z500 before the center relocates, I dont think this classifies as a vigorous MLC personally. There isnt even a vortmax visible, it forms in the next screen when the LLC relocates which doesnt seem right

https://i.imgur.com/M5LtXaz.png

It's most likely overdoing it, but with a broad circulation you can have center jumps. If you have northerly shear pushing convection south away from the LLC, the MLC might try to take charge.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Evening everyone
I have been on following this week but not logged in. That said I am still waiting and watching, but must say the most recent runs of the EURO and now to some extent the GFS have me a bit concerned here in Key Largo. Any storm coming up from the south is tuff to predict where and when the turn comes, guess I start prepping some this weekend, everyone stay safe.

[StAuggy]

Just curious if Fiona phasing into a mega storm will have any effect on the weather pattern back over the states in regards to this trough for 98L that the models might be missing?

[stormhunter7]

looks like 18z GFS is now shifted with a turn in the GOM to the NE, SW of Tampa?

[caneseddy]

looks like 18z GFS is now shifted with a turn in the GOM to the NE, SW of Tampa?

Landfalls in Big Bend. Looks like the shear really does a number..goes from 949 to 973 at landfall

Still another shift east for the GFS..slowly coming in line with the eastern set of models

I think we’re starting to narrow down potential landfall to the Peninsula as wxman57 has said for the past several days

Of course this is assumption until the center forms

[stormhunter7]

looks like 18z GFS is now shifted with a turn in the GOM to the NE, SW of Tampa?

Landfalls in Big Bend. Looks like the shear really does a number..goes from 949 to 973 at landfall

Still another shift east for the GFS..slowly coming in line with the eastern set of models

I think we’re starting to narrow down potential landfall to the Peninsula as wxman57 has said for the past several days

Of course this is assumption until the center forms

Thats a pretty significant cold air mass. Upper 40s in north Ga., Alabama on Wednesday.

[Jevo]

[Iceresistance]

https://i.imgur.com/IdxFeH1.jpg

I did not know that the UKMET even had ensembles.

[ronjon]

One of the differences between GFS and Euro is the strength of the east coast trough. The Euro shows the 585 dm equipotential down into the north-central GOM, while the GFS is into the FL panhandle at 96 hours. The Euro also has a slight positive tilt while the GFS is more neutral tilt. These subtle differences in the orientation and strength of trough obviously play a big role in the day 4 and 5 track. Also the GFS starts to lift out the trough at 96 hrs while the Euro takes another 24 hrs to start to lift out.

[stormhunter7]

So GFS 18z goes in around Apalachicola? But is really falling apart as it moves inland. Sub 930mb in southern GOM to 970-980 at northern GOM?

[AxaltaRacing24]

One of the differences between GFS and Euro is the strength of the east coast trough. The Euro shows the 585 dm equipotential down into the north-central GOM, while the GFS is into the FL panhandle at 96 hours. The Euro also has a slight positive tilt while the GFS is more neutral tilt. These subtle differences in the orientation and strength of trough obviously play a big role in the day 4 and 5 track. Also the GFS starts to lift out the trough at 96 hrs while the Euro takes another 24 hrs to start to lift out.

the GFS bias does tend to progress setups like this too quickly in situations like this.

[SouthFLTropics]

18z HWRF coming in slightly further north and slightly stronger.

[eastcoastFL]

Does anyone have access to the euro that shows predicted/potential rainfall amounts for the storm? I’m curious about what kind of potential flooding rain Florida could see. Thanks

[SouthFLTropics]

Dows anyone have access to the euro that shows predicted/potential rainfall amounts for the storm? I’m curious about what kind of potential flooding rain Florida could see. Thanks

Not sure where that specific information can be found, however I will offer this. I would think that the rainfall impact, while heavy, would not be as significant since the storm should be moving off to the Northeast at a pretty good pace.

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF predicting that the system starts getting its act together in about 60 hours. Before that it’s bouncing around between 1000mb and 1005mb for about a day.

[TheHurricaneGod]

The 18z GEFS shifted east by a good 150 miles or so. Has a cluster over south FL at 132 hours.

[skyline385]

Does anyone have access to the euro that shows predicted/potential rainfall amounts for the storm? I’m curious about what kind of potential flooding rain Florida could see. Thanks

Here you go, going to be moving fast with a cold front pulling it out so not something insane like Fiona.

[eastcoastFL]

Dows anyone have access to the euro that shows predicted/potential rainfall amounts for the storm? I’m curious about what kind of potential flooding rain Florida could see. Thanks

Not sure where that specific information can be found, however I will offer this. I would think that the rainfall impact, while heavy, would not be as significant since the storm should be moving off to the Northeast at a pretty good pace.

You can kinda see it on the low res version on TT but it’s hard to make out. Looks like it might be about 7-10in of total rainfall for Floridas east coast from tue to thu. Not as bad as prior storms but still quite a bit over 48 hours.

[eastcoastFL]

Does anyone have access to the euro that shows predicted/potential rainfall amounts for the storm? I’m curious about what kind of potential flooding rain Florida could see. Thanks

Here you go, going to be moving fast with a cold front pulling it out so not something insane like Fiona.

https://i.imgur.com/q0ARyOr.png

That’s the one, thank you! So far it looks like possible 6-10in for coastal areas. Not fun but we’ve seen worse.

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF going beast mode, up to 130 knots and NE of the 12z position.