EPAC: NEWTON - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Storm

#21 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:53 am

Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
300 AM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022

Tonight's satellite presentation consists of a pulsating, shapeless
convective mass just east of the surface circulation. A 0430 UTC
METOP-B ASCAT pass revealed peak surface winds of 33 kt in the east
quadrant. A blend of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB along with the likely under-sampled scatterometer pass
supports lowering the initial intensity to 45 kt.

Slow weakening is forecast while the cyclone moves into a dry,
stable lower boundary marine layer invading from the northwest. The
statistical SHIPS and the global models also indicate that Newton
will encounter increasing southerly shear. Again, these factors are
likely to result in slow weakening and degeneration to a remnant low
no later than Saturday night.

Newton's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or
285/6 kt. The cyclone is moving along the southwest periphery of a
subtropical ridge stretching westward from northwestern Mexico.
Newton should continue in this general direction through early
Sunday, then turn west-southwestward within the trade wind flow
through the end of the period as a vertically shallow remnant low.
Only a slight adjustment was made to the south of the previous
forecast beyond the 48-hour period to come in closer agreement with
the NOAA HFIP HCCA model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 18.1N 110.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 18.4N 111.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 19.1N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 19.7N 114.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 19.8N 116.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 19.2N 117.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/0600Z 18.1N 118.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Storm

#22 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:00 am

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
300 PM GMT Fri Sep 23 2022

Gaston is improving in satellite presentation this morning.
Convection is re-forming and wrapping around the northern and
western sides of the circulation. A recent scatterometer pass
showed that Gaston was slightly stronger than the previous advisory
and the initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt. The
tropical-storm-force wind field was also expanded, especially in the
northwestern quadrant based on these data.

The cyclone has managed to retain its tropical characteristics for
now. Global model guidance suggests moderate to strong vertical
wind shear should gradually strip away convection from the core over
the next day or so. In spite of the relatively hostile conditions,
Gaston has managed to maintain its strength, therefore only gradual
weakening is forecast until the storm merges with a shortwave trough
in about 36 hours and becomes a post-tropical cyclone. The official
intensity forecast has been shifted slightly higher than the
previous advisory due to the initial intensity and is slightly
stronger than the consensus model aids.

The storm is moving east-southeastward at an estimated 120/6 kt. A
sharp turn to the south is expected shortly while Gaston traverses
the periphery of a mid-level ridge building to the north.
Afterward, the cyclone should generally move toward the
west-southwest and west, completing an anticyclone turn, through the
end of the period. The NHC forecast has been nudged slightly
northward once again from the previous forecast and lies between the
HCCA and TVCN multi-model consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
western Azores, and are spreading to the central Azores.

2. Gaston is expected to produce heavy rainfall over the western
and central Azores today through Saturday. This rainfall may
result in landslides and areas of flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 40.2N 29.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 39.4N 29.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 38.7N 30.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 38.7N 32.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 25/1200Z 38.9N 34.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 26/0000Z 39.0N 36.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 26/1200Z 39.0N 38.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 27/1200Z 38.9N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 28/1200Z 37.7N 46.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Bucci
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Storm

#23 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:36 am

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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Storm

#24 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:42 pm

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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Storm

#25 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:44 pm

Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
300 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022

The low-level center of Newton has become exposed, with the
convection sheared to the east and southeast of the center.
A census of the Dvorak estimates would support an initial
intensity around 45 kt. With visible imagery since fix time
continuing the shearing trend, the initial intensity for
this advisory is set to 40 kt. A 1635Z scatterometer pass
captured Newton, further supporting the low level center
location of the low level center. This places the center
about 15 nm to the south of the previous track.

Further weakening is expected as the storm moves to the west
into a drier and more stable airmass. SSTs are near 81F with
little change expected along the forecast track, so we not expecting
the SSTs to be much of a factor in the weakening of the system.
Newton is expected to transition to a remnant low and then
dissipate within 72 hours.

Newton continues to move to the west-northwest, but the short
term forward motion has slowed to around 4 kt as it moves along
the southwest edge of a mid-level ridge. The track has been
shifted just a touch to the south, but remains on the southern
side of the guidance envelope which remain tightly spread,
particularly in the short term.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 18.2N 111.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 18.6N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 19.0N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 19.0N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 18.5N 116.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 17.8N 118.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Powell/M Ballard
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Storm

#26 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Sep 23, 2022 8:50 pm

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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Storm

#27 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:24 pm

Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
900 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022

The low-level center of Newton has once again become obscured
by convection flaring near the center. A recent GPM microwave pass,
the recent exposure of the low-level center, and scatterometer
passes a few hours ago give high confidence in the location of the
center. The initial intensity for this advisory remains at 40 kt
based on a blend of the Dvorak analyses, including fixes from PHFO,
SATCON and AODT.

Newton is expected to continue gradually weakening over the next
several days. The system will remain over SSTs between 27-28C
through 72 hours. The SHIPS and global models show the system will
encounter increasing southerly shear in about 12 to 24 hours.
The system will also be encountering drier air over the next
several days. All combined, these factors will lead to the slow
weakening of the system, transitioning to a remnant low and then
dissipating in 72 hours.

The system has moved a little more to the northwest with this
advisory, driven in part by the bursts of convection that have been
observed over the last several hours. This movement remains close
to the forecasted track. The system is expected to continue moving
to the northwest for the next 24 to 36 hours, before making a turn
to the southwest as it weakens. The forecast track remains on the
southern side of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 18.6N 111.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 19.0N 113.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 19.3N 114.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 19.1N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 18.5N 117.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 17.7N 118.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Powell/M Ballard
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Storm

#28 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 24, 2022 3:55 am

Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022

While Newton is producing small areas of convection near and
north of the center, the storm is gradually becoming less
organized. Satellite intensity estimates are generally in the
30-40 kt range, and based on the decreased organization since the
last advisory the initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt.

While Newton is likely to stay over warm sea surface temperatures,
a combination of a dry air mass and southerly vertical wind shear
should cause weakening. The new intensity forecast calls for the
cyclone to decay to a remnant low by 48 h and to dissipate
completely by 72 h. This much longevity could be generous, as
several of the global models forecast an earlier dissipation.

The initial motion is 290/8 kt. A general west-northwest motion is
forecast for about 12 h, followed by a turn toward the west and
eventually west-southwest. The track guidance is in good agreement
on this scenario, and the new forecast track is near the various
consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 18.9N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 19.2N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 19.2N 115.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 18.9N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 18.1N 117.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 26/1800Z 16.8N 119.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Storm

#29 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:42 am

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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Storm

#30 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:50 am

Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
900 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022

Small bursts of convection continue to form near the center of
Newton's center. A recent satellite microwave pass still showed
a small curved band in the northern semicircle of the circulation.
Subjective and objective satellite classifications range between
25-35 kt. The initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 35
kt.

The combination of low environmental relative humidities and
moderate vertical wind shear are expected to slowly weaken Newton,
despite the relatively warm sea surface temperatures. There is
little change in the latest intensity forecast and Newton is still
expected to become a remnant low in two days and dissipate within
three days.

Newton is moving west-northwestward at 7 kt and gradually turning to
the west. As convection slowly dwindles, the shallow vortex is
expected to turn westward and eventually southwestward in the
low-level flow in the next day or so. The track guidance is
tightly clustered and the official forecast track is very similar to
the previous prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 19.1N 113.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 19.3N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 19.1N 115.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 18.5N 117.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 17.5N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/0000Z 16.3N 119.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Sep 24, 2022 2:37 pm

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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Storm

#32 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 24, 2022 4:13 pm

Tropical Depression Newton Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
300 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022

Visible satellite imagery show Newton is reduced to a low-level
swirl devoid of deep convection. Satellite Dvorak estimates suggest
the intensity is between 25-30 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity
has been lowered to 30 kt, and Newton is now a tropical depression.

It remains to be seen if Newton is able to develop new central
convection as it moves over a oceanic thermal ridge with warmer sea
surface temperatures. Environmental conditions are not expected to
improve along the forecast track, however, and global models suggest
Newton will gradually spin down. The NHC intensity is slightly
lower than the previous advisory and now shows the depression as a
remnant low in 24 hours. However, given the current satellite
presentation, this could occur sooner.

The depression is moving just north of west at 8 kt. The shallow
circulation is expected to move westward in the low-level wind flow
for the next day. This is followed by a gradual turn to the
west-southwest and southwest until the end of the forecast period.
The current forecast track is largely an update of the previous
advisory prediction with only minor adjustments.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 19.4N 113.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 19.4N 115.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 18.9N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/0600Z 18.0N 117.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 26/1800Z 17.0N 119.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/0600Z 15.9N 120.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Storm

#33 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:23 pm

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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Depression

#34 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:46 pm

Tropical Depression Newton Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
900 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022

A little deep convection has reformed near the center of Newton
since the last advisory. While it isn't particularly well organized,
it was enough to get a 2.0 Dvorak classification from TAFB, which
was the primary basis for the 30 kt initial intensity. The lack of
persistent or organized deep convection is probably due to a
combination of factors including a dry surrounding environment
(700-500 mb 50 to 55 percent RH according to SHIPS diagnostics) and
moderate wind shear.

Even though Newton is forecast to move over warmer SSTs during the
next few days, various global models suggest it could become
post-tropical sooner than that, and based on current trends that
could be as soon as tomorrow. The HWRF has a notably different
forecast, indicating Newton could stick around as a weak tropical
depression for at least another few days. The NHC forecast is very
similar to the previous advisory, showing Newton becoming
post-tropical in about a day and dissipating by day 3.

Newton has turned westward. Low-level winds should steer the
depression westward overnight, and then southwestward by late Sunday
or early Monday. Only minor adjustments were made to the official
track forecast which is based on the track consensus aids HCCA and
TVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 19.5N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 19.4N 115.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 18.7N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/1200Z 17.7N 118.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0000Z 16.6N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/1200Z 15.5N 121.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Depression

#35 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 25, 2022 4:20 am

Tropical Depression Newton Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
200 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022

This morning's conventional satellite presentation consists of a
partially exposed, well-defined surface circulation with a recent,
shapeless burst of deep convection near and north of the surface
center. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt and is supported by
the subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimate from TAFB and
SAB. Increasing shear magnitude and intrusion of dry stable air
should degenerate Newton by early Monday, or possibly sometime
today. The statistical SHIPS intensity guidance has Newton as a
persistent depression through early Tuesday, but the global models
show Newton decaying earlier, and the NHC forecast follows the
latter solution.

Newton's initial motion is 260/7 kt, a little left of due west.
A west-southwestward turn is expected by this evening, followed by
a turn southwestward early Monday while embedded in the
northeasterly low-level trade wind flow. The official track
forecast is slightly faster than the 0300 UTC advisory beyond the
24-hour period and has been adjusted south to align more closely to
the NOAA HFIP consensus model and the TVCE aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 19.4N 115.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 19.0N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 17.8N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/1800Z 16.4N 119.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0600Z 15.0N 120.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/1800Z 13.7N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Depression

#36 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 25, 2022 12:34 pm

Tropical Depression Newton Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
800 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022

Newton barely qualifies as a tropical depression this morning, with
a small area of not-exactly-organized deep convection, which has
been weakening during the past few hours. The initial wind speed
is held at 30 kt, perhaps generously. The system should gradually
weaken due to persistent southerly shear helping to entrain drier
air into the circulation. This environment should eliminate any
significant convection by this evening, and remnant low status is
now indicated in 12 hours.

The depression is turning leftward, with the motion now estimated
at 240/8 kt. Newton should move southwestward during the next few
days due to the orientation of the low-level ridge, and the model
guidance is in good agreement on this scenario. No significant
changes were made to the previous NHC forecast for track or
intensity.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 19.0N 116.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 18.3N 117.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 26/1200Z 17.1N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/0000Z 15.8N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/1200Z 14.5N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 28/0000Z 13.5N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Depression

#37 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Sep 25, 2022 3:27 pm

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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Post-Tropical

#38 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 25, 2022 3:44 pm

Post-Tropical Cyclone Newton Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
200 PM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022

Satellite images during the last 24 hours indicate that Newton has
not produced much convection, and a brief burst overnight was too
ephemeral to qualify as organized enough for a tropical cyclone.
Thus, this system has degenerated to a remnant low, and this is the
last NHC advisory. The initial wind speed is set to 25 kt, assuming
some spin down of the vortex since this morning. The remnant low
should continue moving southwestward for the few days before opening
up into a trough. At the same time, the system should gradually
weaken. This solution is consistent with the previous forecast and
the consensus aids.

For additional information on the remnant low, please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 18.4N 117.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 26/0600Z 17.6N 118.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 26/1800Z 16.4N 119.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/0600Z 15.1N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/1800Z 14.3N 121.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 28/0600Z 13.0N 123.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Post-Tropical

#39 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 27, 2022 7:07 pm

Western East Pacific:
The remnants of Newton are located nearly 1,000 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Bursts of shower
and thunderstorm activity associated with the low has shown signs of
organization today. Some additional slight development of the system
is possible for the next day or two and it could briefly become a
tropical depression again while it moves generally westward over the
western portion of the eastern North Pacific. Environmental
conditions are expected to become less conducive for additional
development by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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