ATL: ELEVEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[Buck]

Looking pretty healthy. What are the models saying about this? Would love a nice long-tracking fish to bump ACE up and keep us occupied post-Ian.

[Teban54]

Looking pretty healthy. What are the models saying about this? Would love a nice long-tracking fish to bump ACE up and keep us occupied post-Ian.

No models show this doing much beyond a weak TS. But an increment in TS count and a handful ACE are always welcome.

[cycloneye]

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99L)

B. 26/2330Z

C. 14.0N

D. 36.1W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT=1.5. FT
BASED ON MET DUE TO IRREG/PULSING CONVECTION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KONON

[AnnularCane]

Looking pretty healthy. What are the models saying about this? Would love a nice long-tracking fish to bump ACE up and keep us occupied post-Ian.

No models show this doing much beyond a weak TS. But an increment in TS count and a handful ACE are always welcome.

I'm kind of hoping for another Gaston. Female version, of course.

[Teban54]

I'm confused why chances went down to 60/60 when it looks like this:

[Hammy]

No idea why this isn't classified at the moment

[aspen]

The NHC sure is hesitant to classify shorties this year. That’s now, what, the 4th invest that might be an unclassified TC this year?

[weeniepatrol]

The NHC sure is hesitant to classify shorties this year. That’s now, what, the 4th invest that might be an unclassified TC this year?

Feels like this has been around for weeks I’m declaring it a longie

[galaxy401]

I'm confused why chances went down to 60/60 when it looks like this:
https://i.postimg.cc/jSrWGDz4/goes16-vis-swir-99-L-202209271545.gif

I can't get the image to load on my browser.

[Teban54]

I'm confused why chances went down to 60/60 when it looks like this:
https://i.postimg.cc/jSrWGDz4/goes16-vis-swir-99-L-202209271545.gif

I can't get the image to load on my browser.

Actually, I can't either. Looks like server issues with postimg.cc.

[cycloneye]

Up again to 70%.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands have
become better organized over the past several hours. Although
environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for
development, only a slight increase in organization would result in
the formation of a short-lived tropical depression tonight or
tomorrow. Further development will become less likely by the end of
the week due to increasing upper-level winds. The disturbance is
forecast to meander for the next day or so and then turn
north-northwestward by Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[eastcoastFL]

Is this going to be like the last few in this area that just kinda spins around out in the open ocean ?

[Hammy]

If this isn't considered a tropical depression then we need to scrub about a hundred storms from the official records

[LemieT]

At this stage this is becoming faintly ridiculous. What criteria is this not meeting to be classified? This has been at least a TD or even a TS for at least 2 or 3 days now....

[FireRat]

The NHC is probably very occupied with Ian, if 99L can hang on for a few more days perhaps it will become Julia. Just my hunch

[Kingarabian]

I think the NHC will write a blog in the off-season to explain their reasoning behind some of the decisions. Similar to what happened in 2020. This isn't the only system this year.

[ThunderForce]

I have to admit that it's pretty odd this hasn't been classified as a Tropical Depression or even Tropical Storm considering Colin was despite not lasting very long.

[Sciencerocks]

[Hammy]

Could be a TS with the ASCAT's low bias, can't help wondering if they've overreacted to the criticism about 'shorty' systems the last two years. Third system that should've been named this year that wasn't