BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM EDT Sat Oct 01 2022
...IAN'S HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
MID-ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.7N 79.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF GREENSBORO NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian
was located near latitude 35.7 North, longitude 79.8 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northwest near 12
mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward
speed is expected later today. On the forecast track, the center
of Ian is expected to move northward across central North Carolina
this morning and reach south-central Virginia by this afternoon.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. These winds are occurring over the waters east
of North Carolina and Virginia. Additional weakening is expected,
and Ian is forecast to dissipate over south-central Virginia by
tonight.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
WIND: Gusty winds are expected to continue across portions of the
central and southern Appalachians through this morning.
RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches with local
maxima of 6 inches across portions of the Central Appalachians and
coastal Mid-Atlantic.
Major to record river flooding will continue across central Florida
through next week. Limited flash, urban and small stream flooding
is possible across the central Appalachians and the southern
Mid-Atlantic this weekend, with minor river flooding expected over
the coastal Carolinas.
SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the coast of the
southeastern United States and the northwestern Bahamas but should
gradually subside over the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on Ian can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning
at 11 AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH,
and on the web at
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.
$$
Forecaster Berg
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM EDT Sat Oct 01 2022
Ian's circulation continues to wind down, and marine observations
off the coast of North Carolina and Virginia, as well as earlier
ASCAT data, indicate that maximum winds in the southerly flow south
of the warm front have dropped below gale force. The initial
intensity is set at 30 kt for this advisory, with those winds
occurring over the Atlantic waters. The bulk of the associated
rainfall is located north and west of the occluded/warm front,
stretching from the southern Appalachians northward across the
Mid-Atlantic states.
Ian's center has turned north-northwestward and slowed down over
central North Carolina, with an initial motion of 345/10 kt. The
system is forecast to turn back to the north and slow down further
later today, and global model fields indicate that the low center
should dissipate over south-central Virginia by this evening.
This is indicated in the new official forecast. A new frontal
low may form on the triple point over the Delmarva Peninsula or
adjacent Atlantic waters and scoot eastward later today or tonight.
Although seas 12 feet or greater continue over portions of the
adjacent Atlantic waters, they are not indicated in this forecast
package since they are so far east of Ian's center. Information on
seas and high winds over marine areas can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.
This is the last advisory on Ian issued by the National Hurricane
Center. Future information on this system can be found in Public
Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 11
AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on
the web at
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.
Key Messages:
1. Ongoing major to record river flooding will continue through
next week across portions of central Florida. Limited flash, urban,
and small stream flooding is possible across portions of the
central Appalachians and the southern Mid-Atlantic this weekend.
2. Gusty winds are expected across portions of the central and
southern Appalachians through this morning.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0900Z 35.7N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 01/1800Z 36.8N 79.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
