ATL: IAN - Advisories

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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#41 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 27, 2022 9:01 pm

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1000 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...10 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...EYE OF IAN NOW MOVING OVER THE DRY TORTUGAS...

The Key West International Airport recently reported a sustained
wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) with a gust to 66 mph (106 km/h). An
elevated WeatherFlow station at Smith Shoal Light reported a
sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) with a gust of 91 mph (146 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 82.9W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/D. Zelinsky
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#42 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 27, 2022 9:56 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...IAN EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC
WINDS AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 82.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES




Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

The hurricane continues to have an impressive appearance on
satellite imagery, exhibiting considerable deep convection with
numerous cloud tops colder than -80C. An Air Force Hurricane
Hunter Aircraft recently penetrated the center and found that the
central pressure had not fallen since earlier this evening. Based
on a blend of SFMR-observed surface winds and 700 mb flight-level
winds from the Air Force plane, the current intensity is held at
105 kt for now.

Ian has turned slightly to the right and the initial motion is now
015/9 kt. Over the next couple of days, the tropical cyclone
should move between the western edge of a subtropical high
pressure system and a broad trough over the eastern United
States. The dynamical model consensus, TVCN, prediction has again
shifted a little to the east, and is just slightly slower on
this cycle. Therefore the official track forecast has, again, been
shifted a few degrees to the east of the previous one. This
does not require any change the watches and warnings over Florida at
this time.

Ian's outflow is being restricted over the southwestern portion of
its circulation by southwesterly upper-tropospheric flow over the
Gulf of Mexico. Vertical shear over the hurricane is likely to
increase up through landfall. The SHIPS guidance and water vapor
imagery suggest that there will also be some dry mid-level air in
the vicinity. However, it is expected that this large system will
be fairly resilient to the shear and dry air before landfall.
Therefore, the official intensity forecast continues to show Ian
reaching the coast with category 4 intensity. Since radar imagery
indicates that an eyewall replacement is probably underway, this
could result in a larger eye evolving overnight. Interests along
the Florida west coast in the Hurricane Warning area should be
prepared for a large and destructive hurricane, and residents in
this area should heed the advice of emergency management officials.
Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track as some
additional adjustments to the track are possible, and significant
wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the
center.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected along the Florida west
coast where a storm surge warning is in effect, with the highest
risk from Naples to the Sarasota region. Residents in these areas
should listen to advice given by local officials and follow any
evacuation orders for your area.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area
in southwest and west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning
with tropical storm conditions expected overnight. Devastating wind
damage is expected near the core of Ian. Residents should rush all
preparations to completion.

3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through
Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast later this week and
this weekend. Catastrophic flooding is expected across portions of
central Florida with considerable flooding in southern Florida,
northern Florida, southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina.
Widespread, prolonged moderate to major river flooding expected
across central Florida.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 24.9N 82.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 26.0N 82.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 27.2N 81.9W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/1200Z 28.2N 81.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/0000Z 29.3N 80.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 30/1200Z 30.6N 80.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 32.7N 81.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 02/0000Z 36.0N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#43 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:06 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND IAN HAS STRENGTHENED INTO AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC
WINDS AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 82.9W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM WSW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Ian completed an eyewall replacement cycle during the overnight
hours, and very recent data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that the hurricane has reached category 4
intensity. The plane reported that the central pressure has fallen
to 942 mb, down about 10 mb from around midnight. The plane
measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 141 kt, and an SFMR
wind of 109 kt. A blend of the 700-mb reduced wind and the SFMR
yields an initial intensity of 120 kt. Although there is some
moderate shear over the hurricane, this is not likely to affect Ian
very much due to its large size. Some fluctuations in intensity are
possible before the center reaches the coast later today, but Ian is
expected to reach the coast as an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane. Weakening is expected while Ian moves over the Florida
peninsula.

Ian has jogged a little to the left this morning, but the
longer-term motion remains north-northeastward or 015 degrees
at 9 kt. The hurricane should continue moving north-northeastward
through Thursday between the western side of a subtropical ridge
and a broad trough over the eastern United States. This motion is
expected to bring the center of Ian onshore along the west coast of
Florida later today, and over central Florida tonight and Thursday.
A shortwave trough that is forecast to move southward toward the
northwestern Gulf in about 24 to 36 hours is expected to sharpen
the trough over the eastern U.S. causing Ian to turn northward
along coast of northeastern Florida and Georgia Thursday night and
Friday. The model envelope did not change much this cycle, and very
little cross-track adjustments were needed to the official
forecast. The GFS and ECWMF are noticeably slower than the
remainder of the dynamical models, and the updated NHC track
forecast is a little slower than the previous advisory and slightly
slower than the TVCA consensus aid out of respect for those models.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected along the Florida west
coast and the Lower Florida Keys where a storm surge warning is
in effect, with the highest risk from Naples to the Sarasota region.
Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by local
officials and follow any evacuation orders for your area.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning
area in southwest and west-central Florida beginning Wednesday
morning with tropical storm conditions expected overnight.
Catastrophic wind damage is expected near the core of Ian when it
moves onshore.

3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through
Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast later this week and
this weekend. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flooding is
expected across portions of central Florida with considerable
flooding in southern Florida, northern Florida, southeastern Georgia
and coastal South Carolina. Widespread, prolonged major and record
river flooding expected across central Florida.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 25.6N 82.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 26.7N 82.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 27.7N 81.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/1800Z 28.7N 81.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/0600Z 29.8N 80.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 30/1800Z 31.6N 80.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 33.6N 81.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 02/0600Z 36.1N 82.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#44 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:58 am

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
600 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...6 AM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
COAST...

A University of South Florida COMPS buoy located just to the
north-northwest of Ian's eye recently measured a sustained wind of
66 mph (106 km/h) and a wind gust to 94 mph (151 km/h).

A WeatherFlow station near Sanibel Island recently measured a
sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a wind gust to 55 mph (89
km/h).


SUMMARY OF 600 AM EDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 82.8W
ABOUT 55 MI...100 KM WSW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Latto/Brown
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#45 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:45 am

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
635 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...IAN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...
...CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
COAST...

Recent data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph (250
km/h). A special advisory will be issued by 7 AM EDT (1100 UTC) to
reflect this change and update the forecast.


SUMMARY OF 635 AM EDT...1035 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 82.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.73 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#46 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:57 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Special Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
700 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING IAN FORECAST TO CAUSE CATASTROPHIC
STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 82.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


Hurricane Ian Special Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
700 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

This special advisory is being issued to update Ian's current and
forecast intensity. Recent NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter flight-level winds are as high as 160 kt, with SFMR data
around 135 kt, with a central pressure down to 937 mb. This
supports a current intensity of 135 kt.

The forecast intensity is raised to 135 kt at landfall, and we are
now forecasting a catastrophic storm surge of 12 to 16 ft from
Englewood to Bonita Beach, Florida. No other significant changes
were made to the forecast.

Previous discussion --

Ian completed an eyewall replacement cycle during the overnight
hours, and very recent data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that the hurricane has reached category 4
intensity. The plane reported that the central pressure has fallen
to 942 mb, down about 10 mb from around midnight. The plane
measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 141 kt, and an SFMR
wind of 109 kt. A blend of the 700-mb reduced wind and the SFMR
yields an initial intensity of 120 kt. Although there is some
moderate shear over the hurricane, this is not likely to affect Ian
very much due to its large size. Some fluctuations in intensity are
possible before the center reaches the coast later today, but Ian is
expected to reach the coast as an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane. Weakening is expected while Ian moves over the Florida
peninsula.

Ian has jogged a little to the left this morning, but the
longer-term motion remains north-northeastward or 015 degrees
at 9 kt. The hurricane should continue moving north-northeastward
through Thursday between the western side of a subtropical ridge
and a broad trough over the eastern United States. This motion is
expected to bring the center of Ian onshore along the west coast of
Florida later today, and over central Florida tonight and Thursday.
A shortwave trough that is forecast to move southward toward the
northwestern Gulf in about 24 to 36 hours is expected to sharpen
the trough over the eastern U.S. causing Ian to turn northward
along coast of northeastern Florida and Georgia Thursday night and
Friday. The model envelope did not change much this cycle, and very
little cross-track adjustments were needed to the official
forecast. The GFS and ECWMF are noticeably slower than the
remainder of the dynamical models, and the updated NHC track
forecast is a little slower than the previous advisory and slightly
slower than the TVCA consensus aid out of respect for those models.


Key Messages:

1. Catastrophic storm surge inundation of 12 to 16 feet above ground
level along with destructive waves are expected somewhere along the
southwest Florida coastline from Englewood to Bonita Beach,
including Charlotte Harbor. Residents in these areas should urgently
follow any evacuation orders in effect.

2. Catastrophic wind damage is expected along the southwestern
coast of Florida beginning in the next few hours where the core of
Ian makes landfall. Preparations to protect life and property
should be urgently rushed to completion.

3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through
Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast U.S. later this week
and this weekend. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic
flooding is expected across portions of central Florida with
considerable flooding in southern Florida, northern Florida,
southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina. Widespread,
prolonged major and record river flooding expected across central
Florida.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1100Z 25.9N 82.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 26.7N 82.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 27.7N 81.7W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/1800Z 28.7N 81.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/0600Z 29.8N 80.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 30/1800Z 31.6N 80.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 33.6N 81.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 02/0600Z 36.1N 82.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#47 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:03 am

TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...IAN EXPECTED TO CAUSE CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND
FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA STARTING LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 82.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM W OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#48 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:05 am

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
900 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...9 AM EDT IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...

Peak Storm Surge Inundation has been increased for the following
locations:

* From Englewood to Bonita Beach...12-18 ft
* Charlotte Harbor...12-18 ft
* From Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...8-12 ft
* From Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...5-8 ft



SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 82.7W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#49 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:59 am

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1000 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...10 AM EDT IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS NEARING THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that hurricane-force winds are approaching the coast of Florida near
Sanibel Island. The Southwest Regional Airport in Fort Myers
recently reported a wind gust of 62 mph (100 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 82.7W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#50 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:57 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS EYEWALL OF IAN MOVING ONSHORE...
...IAN WILL CAUSE CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING IN
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 82.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WNW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES



Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data was absolutely
critical this morning in diagnosing the rapid intensification of
Ian, despite both planes undergoing multiple eyewall penetrations
experiencing severe turbulence. That data supported an intensity of
about 135 kt a few hours ago. Since that time, high-resolution
Tampa Doppler radar data has been sampling the eyewall near 10,000
ft with winds up to 155 kt, indicating that Ian is on the threshold
of category 5 status. The maximum winds are set to 135 kt on this
advisory.

Ian is expected to make landfall in southwestern Florida in the next
few hours as a catastrophic hurricane. No changes were made to the
track forecast near Florida, except to be faster to come into line
with the latest consensus aids. One important change is that Ian
is likely to remain more intact as it crosses the Florida peninsula
(due to both its stronger initial wind speed and its faster forecast
forward speed), and this now increases the threat of hurricane-force
winds on the east coast of Florida. This necessitates the issuance
of a Hurricane Warning on the east coast of central Florida. While
significant re-strengthening of Ian might not occur over the
Atlantic Ocean, model guidance has been catching up with a
trough interaction from a shortwave over the southern United
States, and are stronger than yesterday on Ian's intensity with
more baroclinic forcing. Thus, a Hurricane Watch has been issued
from northeastern Florida northward up the coast through most of
coastal South Carolina. The new intensity forecast is raised from
the previous one, near the latest statistical-dynamical guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Catastrophic storm surge inundation of 12 to 18 feet above ground
level along with destructive waves are expected somewhere along the
southwest Florida coastline from Englewood to Bonita Beach,
including Charlotte Harbor. Residents in these areas should urgently
follow any evacuation orders in effect.

2. Catastrophic wind damage is beginning along the southwestern
coast of Florida today near the landfall location. Hurricane-force
winds are expected to extend well inland along near the core of Ian.
Preparations to protect life and property should be urgently rushed
to completion.

3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through
Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast U.S. later this week
and this weekend. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic
flooding is expected across portions of central Florida with
considerable flooding in southern Florida, northern Florida,
southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina. Widespread,
prolonged major and record river flooding is expected across
central Florida.

4. Hurricane conditions are expected along the east-central Florida
coast overnight, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued.
Hurricane conditions are possible from northeastern Florida to
portions of South Carolina on Thursday and Friday, and a Hurricane
Watch has been issued for that area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 26.3N 82.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 27.3N 82.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/1200Z 28.3N 81.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/0000Z 29.3N 80.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 30/1200Z 30.8N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 01/0000Z 32.9N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 01/1200Z 34.7N 81.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/1200Z 36.0N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#51 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:58 am

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1200 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...12 PM EDT IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...EYEWALL OF IAN MOVING ONSHORE AT SANIBEL AND CAPTIVA ISLANDS...

The Government of Cuba has discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings
for Cuba.

A Weatherflow station near Sanibel Island, Florida recently
reported sustained winds of 71 mph (114 km/h) and a wind gust of
98 mph (158 km/h), and a River, Estuary, and Coastal Network
station at Redfish Pass recently reported sustained winds of 67 mph
(108 km/h) and a wind gust of 84 mph (135 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 82.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WNW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#52 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2022 12:01 pm

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
100 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...1 PM EDT IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA...

A River, Estuary, and Coastal Network station at Redfish Pass,
Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 75 mph (121 km/h) and
a wind gust of 100 mph (161 km/h), while a Weatherflow station near
Sanibel Island, Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 77
mph (124 km/h) and a wind gust of 107 mph (172 km/h). The Earth
Networks Station at the Naples Grande Beach Resort recently
reported a wind gust of 112 mph (180 km/h.)

The Redfish Pass station has also reported a pressure of 969 mb
(28.61 inches).

SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 82.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...80 KM WSW OF FT MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#53 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2022 12:58 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...IAN CAUSING CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING IN
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 82.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WNW OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#54 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:04 pm

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
300 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...IAN ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING IN
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ONGOING...

A Weatherflow station at Tarpin point in Cape Coral reported
sustained winds of 77 mph (124 km/h) with a gust up to 118 mph (190
km/h). A River, Estuary, and Coastal Network station at Redfish
Pass, Florida, recently reported a pressure of 942 mb (27.81
inches).


SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 82.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF FT MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake/Beven/Papin
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#55 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:17 pm

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
310 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IAN MAKES LANDFALL IN
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

NOAA Doppler radar imagery indicates that the eye of Ian made
landfall along the southwestern coast of Florida near Cayo Costa
around 305 PM EDT (1905 UTC). Data from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Ian's maximum sustained winds
were estimated to be near 150 mph (240 km/h). The latest minimum
central pressure estimated from reconnaissance data is 940 mb
(27.75 inches).


SUMMARY OF 310 PM EDT...1910 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 82.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WNW OF FT MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.75 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake/Papin/Beven/Stevenson
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#56 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2022 3:15 pm

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
400 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...4 PM EDT IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IAN CONTINUES TO MOVE
INLAND IN THE CAPE CORAL-PUNTA GORDA AREA...

The Punta Gorda airport recently reported a wind gust of 124 mph
(200 km/h), and a station at the Cape Coral Fire Department
recently reported a wind gust of 110 mph (177 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 82.1W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM WSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NW OF FT MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...235 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#57 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2022 3:41 pm

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
435 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...IAN MAKES MAINLAND FLORIDA LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF
PUNTA GORDA NEAR PIRATE HARBOR...

NOAA Doppler radar imagery indicates that the eye of Ian has made
landfall on the mainland southwest Florida peninsula just south of
Punta Gorda near Pirate Harbor. Maximum sustained winds at landfall
were estimated to be 145 mph (235 km/h).

A WeatherSTEM station at the Cape Coral Fire Department recently
reported a wind gust of 110 mph (177 km/h). A WeatherFlow station in
Grove City on the western side of Charlotte Harbor reported a
sustained wind of 85 mph (137 km/h) with a gust to 128 mph (206
km/h).

SUMMARY OF 435 PM EDT...2035 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 82.0W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM WSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NW OF FT MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...235 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven/Papin/Bucci
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#58 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:04 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...IAN BATTERING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CATASTROPHIC STORM
SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 82.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft provided the last
fix on Ian just before the hurricane made landfall at Cayo Costa,
Florida, with the landfall time near at 305 pm EDT. The
minimum pressure had risen to about 940 mb at landfall, suggesting
that the winds had come down slightly, and the landfall intensity
was estimated near 130 kt. While there hasn't been much in situ
data recently, satellite images show that the eye has become more
cloud filled, and Tampa Doppler radar data is indicating a gradual
reduction in winds. The initial intensity is set to 120 kt on this
advisory.

Further weakening is forecast while Ian moves over central Florida
during the next day and emerges into the western Atlantic later on
Thursday. While there is a lot of vertical wind shear in the
environment there, a favorable trough interaction from a trough in
the southern United States is expected to counteract the shear,
resulting in Ian staying a strong tropical storm through landfall
on the southeast U.S. coast. Little change was made to the
intensity forecast, which is near or somewhat above the consensus
guidance.

The hurricane is moving to the north-northeast at about 8 kt. The
aforementioned trough is likely to cause Ian to turn northward over
the western Atlantic and to the north-northwest by the weekend.
Model guidance is just a bit faster to the north-northeast than the
last cycle, and the new forecast is nudged in that direction. The
trough will probably cause Ian to transition to an extratropical
cyclone in a few days over the southeastern United States, and this
new forecast reflects this likelihood.


Key Messages:

1. Catastrophic storm surge inundation of 12 to 18 feet above ground
level along with destructive waves is ongoing along the southwest
Florida coastline from Englewood to Bonita Beach, including
Charlotte Harbor.

2. Catastrophic wind damage is occurring along the southwestern
coast of Florida in areas near the eyewall of Ian. Hurricane-force
winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland to central
Florida near the core of Ian through early Thursday. Hurricane
conditions are expected along the east-central Florida coast
overnight through early Thursday.

3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through
Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast U.S. later this week
and this weekend. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic
flooding, with major to record river flooding, are expected to
continue across portions of central Florida with considerable
flooding in northern Florida, southeastern Georgia and eastern South
Carolina.

4. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge on Thursday
and Friday along the coasts of northeast Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina, with hurricane conditions possible. Residents in these
areas should follow any advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 26.9N 82.0W 120 KT 140 MPH...INLAND
12H 29/0600Z 27.8N 81.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/1800Z 28.8N 81.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/0600Z 30.0N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 30/1800Z 31.9N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 01/0600Z 34.0N 81.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 01/1800Z 36.0N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#59 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:08 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...IAN CONTINUING TO BATTER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CATASTROPHIC
STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 81.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NE OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#60 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:27 pm

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
900 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...9 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...IAN CONTINUING TO BATTER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CATASTROPHIC
STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING...

A University of Florida Coastal Monitoring Program wind tower
located near Punta Gorda recently reported sustained winds of 55
mph (89 km/h) with a wind gust of 78 mph (126 km/h).

The automated station at the Punta Gorda Airport measured a gust of
109 mph (175 km/h) just before 8 PM EDT.


SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 81.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NE OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/D. Zelinsky
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