ATL: HERMINE - Advisories

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ATL: HERMINE - Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 23, 2022 9:51 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022
200 PM CVT Fri Sep 23 2022

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 19.8W
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM ENE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022
200 PM CVT Fri Sep 23 2022

Satellite images indicate that the strong tropical wave that NHC has
been tracking for several days over western Africa has developed a
well-defined surface center over the far eastern Atlantic with
organized bands of convection. Dropsonde data from a DC-8 aircraft
with the NASA field program Convective Processes EXperiment-Cabo
Verde (CPEX-CV) has been quite useful in determining the central
pressure and surface circulation definition of the low, with the
central pressure of 1003 mb based on the dropsondes. The initial
wind speed is set to 30 kt, perhaps conservatively since the eastern
side of the circulation has not been sampled by scatterometer or
aircraft data.

The system is moving north-northwestward at about 10 kt. A large
break in the eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge should cause this
system to move generally northward ahead of a mid-level trough
before turning westward and accelerating as a shallow system beneath
the low-level ridge. The forecast is close to the model consensus,
with heavier weight being placed on the global models than the
regional hurricane track models.

The depression has about a day over warm water in light to moderate
shear before all the models blast the system with strong upper-
level southwesterly winds. Most of the guidance shows this system
becoming a tropical storm before weakening significantly by late
this weekend and dissipating early next week. The official wind
speed prediction is near the NOAA corrected-consensus guidance HCCA.

Note that 2 to 4 inches of rain is possible over the Canary Islands
through this weekend due to a combination of the mid-level trough
and moisture from this system, which is a bit unusual for that area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 17.9N 19.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 19.2N 20.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 21.0N 21.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 22.3N 21.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 23.2N 21.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 23.9N 21.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/1200Z 24.3N 21.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/1200Z 26.0N 26.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Advisories

#2 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:36 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hermine Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022
800 PM CVT Fri Sep 23 2022

...THE EIGHTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS, BUT IN THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...HEAVY RAINS FORECAST FOR THE CANARY ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 20.5W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM NE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES



Tropical Storm Hermine Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022
800 PM CVT Fri Sep 23 2022

A large burst of convection has been occurring in the northeastern
quadrant of the system today, with other shallow banding features
to the southeast of the center. Overall, the cyclone looks better
than this morning and resembles a sheared tropical storm, which is
confirmed by the Dvorak pattern-T of 2.5 (35 kt) from SAB. Thus
the wind speed is set to 35 kt, making this system the 8th tropical
storm of the season.

Hermine continues moving north-northwestward, now about 10 kt.
Global model guidance is consistent on the cyclone moving northward
through a large break in the eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge.
The most significant change is that the storm could hold together a
little longer in a marginal environment, which causes the forecast
track to tug a little to the northeast before a weakening Hermine
would move westward as a shallow system beneath the low-level ridge.
The new forecast is shifted to the north and east, but is not as
far northeast as the GFS or HWRF models.

The storm has about a day over lukewarm water before all the models
hit the system with strong upper-level southwesterly winds. There
is a minority solution in the models where the upper-trough cuts
off, somewhat lessening the shear, but for now the NHC forecast
stays closer to the faster dissipation scenario. Either way, Hermine
should dissipate early next week due to very strong shear and dry
air entrainment cutting off any deep convection. The official
intensity forecast is a little higher than the last one, near the
various consensus aids.

Note that 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals of 6 inches,
are possible over the Canary Islands through this weekend due to a
combination of a mid-latitude trough and moisture from Hermine.
This rainfall could cause some flash flooding in areas of higher
terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 18.6N 20.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 19.8N 21.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 21.6N 21.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 23.1N 21.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 24.1N 20.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 24.5N 21.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/1800Z 24.8N 21.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/1800Z 26.5N 25.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Advisories

#3 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 23, 2022 9:51 pm

Tropical Storm Hermine Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022
200 AM CVT Sat Sep 24 2022

Hermine has changed little in organization since earlier this
evening. Persistent deep convection has been occurring in the
northeastern quadrant, with the estimated low-level circulation
center located just to the southwest of the edge of the convection.
The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on the latest Dvorak
intensity estimate from TAFB.

The cyclone has turned northward and is moving at a heading of 350/9
kt toward a break in the eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge. A
northward to northeastward motion is expected into early next week
while Hermine remains in tact. A turn to the northwest is expected
by 72 h as the cyclone becomes shallow and steered by the low-level
flow. The latest NHC track forecast is near the previous one through
60 h, but is a little to the right thereafter due to an overall
shift in the track guidance.

Hermine now has about 18-24 hours to intensify in the presence of
marginal SSTs and moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear. After
24 h, the southwesterly shear is forecast to progressively increase
while dry air gets pulled into the storm's environment. Therefore
weakening is expected after that time, and both the ECMWF and GFS
simulated satellite imagery suggests that Hermine should degenerate
into a remnant low devoid of deep convection on Monday. The latest
NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is on
the high end of the guidance.

Hermine is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated
totals of 6 inches, over the Canary Islands through this weekend due
to a combination of a mid-latitude trough and moisture from the
cyclone. This rainfall could cause some flash flooding in areas of
higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 19.4N 20.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 20.7N 21.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 22.3N 21.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 23.8N 20.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 24.7N 20.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 25.4N 20.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/0000Z 26.1N 21.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/0000Z 27.8N 25.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Advisories

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 24, 2022 3:52 am

Tropical Storm Hermine Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022
800 AM CVT Sat Sep 24 2022

Hermine is barely holding on as a tropical storm. This morning's
satellite presentation consists of an exposed surface circulation
situated well to the south-southwest of the deep convective mass.
The initial intensity is set at a generous 35 kt.

The southwesterly shear is currently affecting Hermine's cloud
pattern is predicted to increase while the thermodynamic
surrounding environment becomes progressively inhibiting.
Therefore, Hermine may hang on as a tropical storm today, but
weakening is expected to occur soon, and the cyclone should
degenerate into a remnant low-pressure system on Monday.
The latest NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous
one, and is on the high end of the guidance.

The 0900 UTC position is based on a centroid point between
multiple surface swirls, one well to the south of the
convection and another near the edge of the convective canopy.
Hermine's initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 355/9 kt.
Hermine is expected to turn toward the northeast around the
northwest periphery of the east Atlantic subtropical ridge Sunday
evening. By Monday evening, the vertically shallow remnant low
should turn toward the northwest in the east Atlantic trade wind
flow. No significant changes were made to the NHC track forecast,
which lies in the middle of the model guidance suite.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 20.2N 20.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 21.5N 20.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 23.3N 20.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 24.6N 20.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 25.4N 20.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 25.7N 21.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/0600Z 26.2N 22.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Advisories

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:38 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hermine Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022
200 PM CVT Sat Sep 24 2022

...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 20.8W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM NNE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

Tropical Storm Hermine Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022
200 PM CVT Sat Sep 24 2022

Hermine is a strongly sheared and weak tropical cyclone. Satellite
images indicate that the low-level center is exposed well to the
south-southwest of the main area of deep convection. A recent
ASCAT-B pass caught the eastern half of the storm and showed
peak winds of about 30 kt well northeast of the center. Based on
this data and the Dvorak estimates, Hermine is being held at a
35-kt tropical storm for this advisory, but that could be a little
generous. Regardless, the main impact is heavy rain that continues
across the Canary Islands.

The storm is moving northward at 7 kt and that motion is expected
to continue during the next day or two while Hermine moves in the
flow on the west side of a subtropical ridge. After that time, a
turn toward the left is expected as the shallow system is steered by
the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast remains near the middle
of the guidance envelope.

Hermine is currently experiencing about 20 kt of southwesterly
vertical wind shear. Since the shear is expected to increase while
Hermine moves into a region of cooler SSTs and drier air, weakening
is forecast. Hermine is now predicted to become a remnant low in
36 hours, but given recent trends and the expected environment, the
transition to a post-tropical cyclone could occur sooner than that.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 20.8N 20.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 22.1N 20.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 23.6N 20.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 24.5N 20.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 26/1200Z 25.0N 20.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/0000Z 25.4N 21.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Advisories

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 24, 2022 3:44 pm

Tropical Depression Hermine Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022
800 PM CVT Sat Sep 24 2022

Hermine has generally changed little during the past several hours
and it continues to produce heavy rains across the Canary Islands.
The cyclone remains strongly sheared with the low-level center
exposed well to the south-southwest of the main area of deep
convection due to strong southwesterly shear. The initial intensity
is lowered to 30 kt, which is near the high end of the satellite
estimates. This makes Hermine a tropical depression.

The storm is moving northward at 9 kt, and that motion is expected
to continue during the next day or two while Hermine moves in the
flow on the west side of a subtropical ridge. After that time, a
turn toward the left is expected as the shallow system is steered by
the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast remains near the middle
of the guidance envelope.

Hermine is expected to move into a region of even stronger shear,
drier air, and cooler SSTs, which should cause the storm to
slowly weaken. The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite images show
that the system should lose all of its deep convection tomorrow,
and the NHC forecast now shows the system becoming a remnant low in
24 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 21.8N 20.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 23.1N 20.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 24.0N 20.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/0600Z 24.7N 20.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 26/1800Z 25.1N 21.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/0600Z 25.4N 22.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Advisories

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:35 pm

Tropical Depression Hermine Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022
200 AM CVT Sun Sep 25 2022

Hermine is barely holding on a as a tropical cyclone. Southwesterly
vertical wind shear has increased to nearly 30 kt which has stripped
away the cyclone's deep convection across the Canary Islands. The
advisory intensity is set at 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak CI
value from TAFB. The shear is forecast to increase dramatically to
50 kt by 24 h, and 70 kt by 48 h while Hermine remains over marginal
SSTs and in a dry thermodynamic environment. Therefore, there is
fairly high confidence that sustained organized deep convection will
not regenerate near the center of the cyclone, and the system should
become a remnant low later this morning. The NHC intensity forecast
is unchanged from the previous one.

The depression is moving northward at 10 kt, and that motion is
expected to continue during the next day or so while Hermine moves
in the flow on the west side of a subtropical ridge. After that
time, a building surface ridge north of the cyclone should cause it
to turn west-northwestward or northwestward. The NHC track forecast
is little changed from the previous one and remains near the middle
of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 22.9N 20.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 24.0N 20.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 26/0000Z 24.7N 19.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/1200Z 25.2N 20.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0000Z 25.5N 21.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/1200Z 26.1N 23.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Advisories

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 25, 2022 3:52 am

Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022
800 AM CVT Sun Sep 25 2022

Hermine's structure overnight has deteriorated further. While
occasional intermittent bursts of deep convection are still
occurring to the north of the elongated surface circulation, this
convection lacks organization. The system no longer meets the
definition of a tropical cyclone and, therefore, is being declared
a remnant low and this will be the last NHC advisory on Hermine.

Strong southwesterly shear greater than 40 kt and a high
statically stable surrounding Saharan air mass should prevent the
regeneration of organized convection during the next several days.
The global models and the statistical SHIPS intensity guidance
agree that the remnant low will open up into a trough of low
pressure Tuesday, and the official forecast follows suit.

The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 010/6 kt. This
general motion is expected to continue today while the cyclone
moves around the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge.
Beyond Monday morning, the remnant low is forecast to turn toward
the northwest and west-northwest in response to the above mention
ridge building westward over the extreme eastern tropical Atlantic.
The NHC forecast track is based on the various consensus aids and
is similar to the previous advisory.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and
available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-ma ... randlarge/
metarea2.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 23.6N 20.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 25/1800Z 24.3N 19.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 26/0600Z 24.6N 20.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/1800Z 24.9N 21.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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