EPAC: ORLENE - Remnants

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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#61 Postby sikkar » Sat Oct 01, 2022 3:47 pm

This should work, don't know how accurate it is of course but it updates regularly and has pressure, winds, direction and gusts.[/quote]

Many thanks!
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#62 Postby sikkar » Sat Oct 01, 2022 3:49 pm

Appears to be a lot stronger than the estimates. Bombing right now on IR.
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#63 Postby sikkar » Sat Oct 01, 2022 3:53 pm

21.651127849807676, -106.53829069248302

Location of that weather station.
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#64 Postby Netzero9455 » Sat Oct 01, 2022 4:24 pm

Is that an eye already popping out on IR? Hoping it doesn't go right of track like Ian consistently did, would really increase probability of significant damage in the Banderas Bay area, especially the Punta Mita region sitting out on a cape.
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#65 Postby aspen » Sat Oct 01, 2022 4:26 pm

The best looking EPac storm in weeks.
Image
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#66 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sat Oct 01, 2022 4:36 pm

I'm wondering if tomorrow's next recon can find Orlene at her peak intensity, since an increase in Wind Shear is predicted for the next 18 - 24 hours
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#67 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Oct 01, 2022 4:53 pm

Image

I think has a good chance at getting to 90 knots or more in the next 12-24 hours before the shear.
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#68 Postby Teban54 » Sat Oct 01, 2022 5:00 pm

Definitely looks like an RI'ing storm. It's been a while since this happened in the EPac...
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#69 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 01, 2022 5:07 pm

If the shear doesn't kick in sooner than forecast, it's well on jts way to MH status. Might be the strongest system of the EPAC season when it's done.
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#70 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 01, 2022 6:14 pm

Kingarabian wrote:If the shear doesn't kick in sooner than forecast, it's well on jts way to MH status. Might be the strongest system of the EPAC season when it's done.


Did you forget about Darby?
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#71 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 01, 2022 6:14 pm

Image

Solid T5.5 in recent frames. Finally a non-trash EPAC system.
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#72 Postby zeehag » Sat Oct 01, 2022 6:28 pm

watching this one closely as my boats life depends on its passing faraway and smoothly.,.... escuinapa will do nicely.
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#73 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 01, 2022 6:28 pm

Hurricane Orlene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
515 PM MDT Sat Oct 01 2022

...SATELLITE DATA INDICATE ORLENE IS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING...

Satellite data indicate that Orlene is rapidly strengthening, with
maximum sustained winds estimated to be 105 mph (170 km/h). A
special advisory will be issued by 6 PM MDT (0000 UTC) and will
replace the intermediate advisory.

SUMMARY OF 515 PM MDT...2315 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 107.0W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM S OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane- 105 mph-Special Advisory at 6 PM MDT

#74 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 01, 2022 6:33 pm

Image
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#75 Postby Netzero9455 » Sat Oct 01, 2022 6:50 pm

zeehag wrote:watching this one closely as my boats life depends on its passing faraway and smoothly.,.... escuinapa will do nicely.



Would it not be possible to move the boat 100 miles north with 2 days advance? I say this because as I understand it you live on your boat full-time, and would be quite worried if I were in that situation. I remember you being very close to Patricia's eyewall at the time of landfall as well 7 years ago, I've been a permanent resident of Puerto Vallarta for the last 20 years almost, so I was very worried at the time because originally the landfall point forecast was much further to the north, and could have represented an enormous disaster, vs. what we actually got which was a constant drizzle for about 2 days and maybe 10mph of wind due to the Sierra Madre mountains to the south basically acting as a wall against the wind, so the only way we get significantly impacted basically is if a hurricane approaches from the southwest with a landfall point of San Blas to Punta Mita, even if it comes in 50 miles to the south we get mostly nothing except for more intense rain because of the aforementioned mountains. Unfortunately all the communites on the Costalegre coast on the other side of the mountains get pounded by at least 1 storm a year passing to the west on the northwestward heading out to sea that many early to mid-season hurricanes take before cold fronts begin to start dropping down to this latitude in October eroding the ridge.
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#76 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:00 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Orlene Special Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
600 PM MDT Sat Oct 01 2022

...ORLENE IS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 107.1W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM S OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES



Hurricane Orlene Special Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
600 PM MDT Sat Oct 01 2022

The satellite presentation of Orlene has quickly improved during the
past several hours. A warm and well-defined eye has emerged in
GOES-17 satellite imagery, surrounded by a solid ring of deep
convection with infrared cloud tops colder than -70 degrees Celsius.
The initial intensity is set at 90 kt for this advisory based on
recent satellite intensity estimates.

Based on the higher initial intensity, the near-term intensity
forecast has been raised to show additional strengthening in the
next 12-24 h while environmental conditions remain conducive for
intensification. No changes were made to the track forecast with
this special advisory.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Islas Marias Sunday
night, with tropical storm conditions beginning late Sunday.
Hurricane conditions are possible over portions of west-central
mainland Mexico starting on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the tropical storm warning area along the
west-central coast of Mexico on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible over other portions of southwestern and west-central
Mexico in the tropical storm watch area tonight or Sunday.

2. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding,
as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of
southwest Mexico into Monday evening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0000Z 18.2N 107.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 18.6N 107.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 19.7N 106.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 20.9N 106.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 22.1N 106.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 23.1N 105.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 04/1800Z 24.1N 105.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#77 Postby aspen » Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:19 pm

I hope Orlene can keep up its impressive structure for when recon arrives tomorrow, but this is the EPac we’re talking about. It’ll only take a bit of La Niña year to rip Orlene’s tiny core apart long before recon arrives.
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#78 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:21 pm

aspen wrote:I hope Orlene can keep up its impressive structure for when recon arrives tomorrow, but this is the EPac we’re talking about. It’ll only take a bit of La Niña year to rip Orlene’s tiny core apart long before recon arrives.



This seems awfully negative. Be glad we got a fairly potent system for once and one decently far from land.
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#79 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:21 pm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 OCT 2022 Time : 235020 UTC
Lat : 18:04:47 N Lon : 107:05:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 980mb / 72kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 5.4 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : +4.3C Cloud Region Temp : -66.1C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#80 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:30 pm

Image

OW embedded in B now. Instantaneous DT of 6.0.
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