EPAC: ORLENE - Remnants

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EPAC: ORLENE - Remnants

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 27, 2022 1:36 pm

EP, 97, 2022092718, , BEST, 0, 134N, 996W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 100, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 027, SPAWNINVEST, ep792022 to ep972022,


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/?C=M;O=D

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep972022.dat

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure located south of the southern coast of
Mexico continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
by the end of this week while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward off the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#2 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 27, 2022 7:06 pm

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure located south of the southern coast of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while
the system moves westward to west-northwestward off the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#3 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:47 am

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with an
area of low pressure located south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while
the system moves westward to west-northwestward off the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#4 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Sep 28, 2022 1:15 pm

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#5 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2022 1:28 pm

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
south of the southern coast of Mexico continue to show signs of
organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next couple of days while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward off the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#6 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:09 pm

Image

Classifiable.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#7 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:33 pm

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#8 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:09 pm

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Re: EPAC: SIXTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#9 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:11 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 103.7W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Sixteen-E was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 103.7
West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph
(17 km/h). A continued west-northwest motion at a slightly faster
forward speed is expected for the next couple of days. The system is
forecast to slow down and turn toward the north or north-northeast
over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected, and the system is forecast to become a
tropical storm tomorrow and could reach hurricane strength by the
end of the week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky



Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

The area of low pressure located south of the southwestern coast of
Mexico has steadily gained organization throughout the day. Recent
microwave imagery indicated the formation of convective banding and
an earlier partial ASCAT pass suggested the system likely has a
well-defined center. Recent Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB
were both 2.0, another sign that the system has become better
organized. Collectively these data support classifying the system as
a tropical cyclone, and advisories have been initiated on Tropical
Depression Sixteen.

For the next 48 to 60 h, the forecast is fairly straightforward with
high confidence. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest
near 9 kt, and that general motion should continue as the system is
steered by a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for strengthening, and all of the
intensity models suggest it will become a tropical storm quickly,
and continue strengthening to hurricane intensity a day or two after
that.

The main concern with the forecast is what happens beyond 60 h, when
confidence in the forecast decreases considerably. There is a clear
bifurcation in the track guidance at that point that appears to be
linked to the intensity and vertical extent of the cyclone. If the
cyclone is relatively deep at that point, which is shown by all of
the normally reliable intensity guidance, it will likely turn
northward or north-northeastward as it interacts with a mid- to
upper-level trough. However, some models like the ECMWF forecast a
shallower cyclone that takes a drastically different path slowly
westward, steered primarily by lower-level winds. The result is a
massive spread in the track guidance, with most of the consensus
aids caught somewhat between those two scenarios. Although the ECMWF
solution can not be dismissed entirely, the more skillful intensity
guidance (supported by the favorable environment) suggest that the
eastern solution toward Mexico may be more likely. The NHC forecast
therefore favors the northeastern solution and shows the cyclone
moving toward the coast of Mexico by 72-96 h. Strong upper-level
winds associated with the aforementioned trough and a drier
surrounding environment should cause the cyclone to weaken as it
moves closer to the coast, and it will likely quickly dissipate if
it moves inland. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the
intensity consensus throughout the forecast, except at 96 h to
reflect that the official forecast position is still over water at
that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 14.4N 103.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 15.1N 105.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 16.1N 107.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 16.8N 108.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 17.5N 108.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 01/1200Z 18.5N 108.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 19.7N 107.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 23.0N 107.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 25.0N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Re: EPAC: SIXTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#10 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:14 am

This lowkey has tons of potential. A ULAC to its east means it’s flow is aligned with the storm motion and we have a similar interaction with the right enterance region of the jet that we had with Ian. A cutoff low will probably turn it north before it bends back to the northeast due to a trough, which will bring a potentially powerful hurricane near Sinaloa in 4 days.
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Re: EPAC: SIXTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#11 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:57 am

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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Tropical Storm

#12 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 29, 2022 3:52 am

Tropical Storm Orlene Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
400 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022

The depression has strengthened into Tropical Storm Orlene. A mass
of deep convection with cloud tops as cold as -80 degrees C has
persisted over the center of the cyclone for the past several hours.
In addition, a pair of recent ASCAT overpasses showed
non-rain-flagged wind vectors of 31 kt and some believable vectors
of 36 kt. Based on this, the initial advisory intensity has been
set at 35 kt.

The cyclone is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt to the south of a
mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. This motion is expected to
continue for the next day or so. After that time, the track
forecast becomes highly uncertain due to diverging track solutions.
The UKMET and ECMWF indicate a cyclone that does not strengthen any
further, and turns it westward in a couple of days in the low-level
flow. The remaining model solutions indicate a stronger cyclone,
and turn Orlene northward over the weekend as the system rounds the
western periphery of the ridge. This scenario would bring the
cyclone near the coast of Mexico or the southern Baja California
peninsula early next week. The NHC track forecast favors the latter
solution due to the favorable environmental conditions ahead of
Orlene, and is in agreement with the TVCE consensus.

Orlene is forecast to be within an environment of low vertical wind
shear and plenty of atmospheric moisture while over warm waters for
the next few days. The majority of guidance, except the
aforementioned ECMWF and UKMET indicate steady strengthening during
this time, and bring Orlene to hurricane intensity by 36 h. After
72 h the cyclone is expected to encounter drier air and strong
southwesterly shear, which should induce a weakening trend. The
latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous
one and is close to the multi-model consensus IVCN through 48 h and
is a little below it thereafter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 14.8N 104.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 15.5N 106.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 16.4N 107.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 17.2N 108.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 17.9N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 01/1800Z 18.9N 108.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 20.0N 108.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 22.6N 107.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 25.3N 107.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Latto
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Tropical Storm

#13 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Sep 29, 2022 4:07 am

That's a pretty name
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Tropical Storm

#14 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:58 am

Tropical Storm Orlene Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Satellite imagery this morning shows that Orlene is getting better
organized, with the formation of a small central dense overcast
with an outer convective band in the northwestern semicircle.
Satellite intensity estimates are 35-40 kt, so the initial
intensity is increased to 40 kt.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 295/9 kt. Orlene is
being steered by a mid-level ridge over Mexico, and this general
motion should continue for the next day or so. After that time, the
cyclone reaches the western end of the ridge. The UKMET and ECMWF,
which forecast less development, take the storm more westward south
of Baja California, while the GFS and the Canadian, which forecast a
stronger and more vertically deep storm, forecast Orlene to turn
northward into the southern Gulf of California toward northwestern
Mexico. Give the current trends and the forecast intensities, the
track forecast leans towards the GFS/Canadian solution and shows
Orlene turning northward and moving into northwestern Mexico between
days 4-5. The new forecast track is similar to the previous
forecast.

Orlene is forecast to be within an environment of low vertical wind
shear and plenty of atmospheric moisture while over warm waters for
the 72 h or so. The majority of guidance, except the aforementioned
ECMWF and UKMET, indicate steady strengthening during this time,
and bring Orlene to hurricane intensity by 36 h. The intensities
during the first 72 h have been increased to better match the trend
of the intensity guidance. After 72 h, Orlene is likely to
encounter increasing shear and a drier air mass, which should
cause weakening. However, the GFS, HWRF, and HMON models suggest
the possibility that the cyclone will still be at hurricane
strength when it reaches the coast of Mexico, and the new intensity
forecast follows that scenario.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 15.1N 105.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 15.8N 107.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 16.6N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 17.4N 108.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 18.2N 108.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 19.3N 108.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 20.5N 108.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 22.9N 107.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 26.0N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Tropical Storm

#15 Postby underthwx » Thu Sep 29, 2022 10:03 am

I read in the Brownsville discussion this morning, that a bit of the moisture from Orlene, may eventually wind up in Texas?....
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Tropical Storm

#16 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Sep 29, 2022 10:38 am

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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Tropical Storm

#17 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Sep 29, 2022 4:29 pm

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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Tropical Storm

#18 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:47 pm

Tropical Storm Orlene Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
300 PM MDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Satellite imagery shows that Orlene has the same convective features
that it had earlier today, with a small central dense overcast and
an outer convective band that wraps about three-quarters of the way
around the central feature. However, both the central and outer
convection have become more ragged, and some parts of the outer band
currently look like an arc cloud. This structure suggests the
possibility of some dry air near the cyclone despite an overall
moist environment. A recent scatterometer overpass indicated maximum
winds near 40 kt, and based on this data, the initial intensity
remains 40 kt. This is also close to the 35 and 45 kt satellite
intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB, respectively.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 295/7 kt. Orlene is
being steered by a mid-level ridge over Mexico, with the cyclone
forecast to reach the western end of the ridge during the next 12-24
h. This should lead to a turn toward the northwest and north during
this time-frame. After 24 h, Orlene should move generally
northward to north-northeastward in the flow between the ridge and a
mid- to upper-level trough currently developing over northwestern
Mexico and the northern Baja California peninsula. The UKMET and
ECMWF now forecast a stronger Orlene, and as a result they have
joined the other models in forecasting a northward motion. However,
those models have a slower forward speed than the GFS. Overall, the
guidance envelope has shifted eastward since the last advisory, and
the new forecast track is also adjusted eastward after 24 h. The
new track lies near or to the west of the various consensus models,
and it calls for the center to move into Mexico between 96-120 h.

Orlene is forecast to be within an environment of moist air and low
vertical wind shear for the 72 h or so. The guidance is now in good
agreement on at least steady intensification during this time, and
the various rapid intensification indices in the SHIPS model
suggest rapid intensification is possible during the next 24-36 h.
After 72 h, Orlene is likely to encounter increasing shear and a
drier air mass, which should cause weakening. However, the GFS and
HMON models continue to forecast the cyclone to make landfall as a
hurricane, and the new intensity forecast again follows that
scenario. It should be noted that Orlene is very small. This could
allow the cyclone to more easily intensify when the environment is
favorable, but it could also make it more vulnerable to subtly less
favorable environmental conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 15.4N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 16.0N 107.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 16.9N 108.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 17.6N 108.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 18.6N 108.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 19.6N 108.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 20.8N 107.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 23.5N 107.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 26.1N 106.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Tropical Storm

#19 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:47 pm

EP, 16, 2022093000, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1065W, 45, 1002, TS


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep162022.dat
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Tropical Storm

#20 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 29, 2022 8:24 pm

A. 16E (ORLENE)

B. 29/2330Z

C. 15.3N

D. 106.4W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...5.5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. MET=2.5 AND
PT=3.0. TIMELY 2254Z SSMIS PASS GAVE EXCELLENT FIX FOR LLCC. FT BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KONON
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