ATL: ELEVEN - Advisoroes

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ATL: ELEVEN - Advisoroes

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:38 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112022
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 28 2022

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 34.4W
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 34.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and a
general north to north-northwest motion is forecast over the next
several days until the system dissipates.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible today, and the depression
could become a short-lived tropical storm. However, weakening is
expected by the end of this week, with the system dissipating by
Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112022
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 28 2022

Over the past 24 hours, convection has been gradually increasing in
organization with the well-defined area of low pressure located
several hundred miles to the west of the Cabo Verde islands.
Overnight, we received Metop-B and C scatterometer data that
confirmed a closed cyclonic circulation, with peak winds up to at
least 30 kt in the deeper convection to the east of the center
location. There were even a few higher wind retrievals, but these
may have been rain contaminated in the intense convection. Since
that time, the convection has remained persistent, and TAFB has been
providing a subjective intensity estimate of T2.0/30-kt for the last
12-18 hours. A more recent scatterometer pass also indicates the
circulation remains closed and well-defined. Thus, the system can be
considered a tropical depression, and the maximum sustained winds
will be set at 30-kt for this advisory.

After meandering in the same location for the last 2-4 days, the
depression now appears to be finally gaining some latitude with the
estimated motion at 350/8-kt. The very slow motion over the past few
days was related to a large weakness in the steering flow due to a
broad and expansive upper-level trough to the north. Low to
mid-level ridging is finally starting to nose in from the east over
the past 24 hours, and the ongoing northward motion is expected to
continue with a gradual turn more north-northwestward. The guidance
is in fairly good agreement with this solution, and the initial NHC
forecast track follows closely with the reliable consensus aids TVCN
and HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA).

The depression has a short window to intensify a bit more in the
short-term, while the vertical wind shear remains under 10 kt for
the next 12-18 hours. However, as the storm gains latitude, it will
quickly become highly sheared from the aforementioned upper-level
trough that lies along its track. Thus, only slight strengthening is
shown in the 12-h forecast followed by a steady state or weakening
tropical cyclone in the 24-48 hour forecast period. The system is
expected to open up into a trough by 72 hours as it succumbs to the
highly unfavorable environment, and this could occur sooner than
forecasted. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the
majority of the guidance, and also lies near the HCCA aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 16.1N 34.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 17.1N 35.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 19.0N 36.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 20.8N 38.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 23.8N 39.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 26.4N 39.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Advisoroes

#2 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2022 3:38 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112022
500 PM AST Wed Sep 28 2022

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 34.7W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES



Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112022
500 PM AST Wed Sep 28 2022

The depression has not become any better organized this afternoon,
and in fact, the low-level center is now mostly exposed to the west
of the deepest convective activity, which is relatively meager.
Satellite estimates are either unchanged or have even decreased a
little this afternoon, and the latest initial intensity was held at
30 kt for this advisory.

Tropical Depression Eleven has been moving to the north-northwest
this afternoon a bit faster than earlier, estimated at 345/9-kt. A
low- to mid-level ridge located to the east is steering the storm
currently, and this ridge will stay put while the weakness
associated with a large upper-level trough should allow the
depression to turn northward in the subtropical Atlantic basin. The
guidance this cycle is a shade further west early on, but actually
ends up a bit east of the previous track in 48-60 hours. The NHC
track forecast also was nudged a bit west earlier on, and a bit east
by the 60 h, in good agreement with the consensus aids.

The window of favorable upper-level winds is quickly closing, as the
current 5-10 kt of vertical wind shear is expected to increase to
over 20 kt in 24 hours. In addition, the depression is embedded in a
fairly dry mid-level air environment, which is likely playing a role
in the limited convective activity currently. The latest intensity
forecast still gives an opportunity for the depression to become a
short-lived tropical storm during the typical diurnal max in
convection tonight, but now shows earlier weakening, making the
system a remnant low in 60-h and dissipated shortly thereafter. This
intensity forecast is in fairly good agreement with the consensus
aids which have also trended downward form earlier today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 16.7N 34.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 18.2N 35.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 20.2N 37.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 22.5N 38.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 25.1N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 28.5N 38.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Advisoroes

#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:33 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112022
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 28 2022

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NOT FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR LONG...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 35.6W
ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112022
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 28 2022


There's been little change of note with the depression this
evening. All of its deep convection is displaced well to the
northeast of its center of circulation. In the absence of recent
ASCAT data, the intensity is based on the subjective Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB which suggest an intensity of
25-30 kt. Conservatively the advisory intensity was held at 30 kt,
but this may be generous.

There was a slight westward adjustment to the position of the
depression at 00Z, which resulted in an adjustment of the track
forecast in that direction. Otherwise there's no change to any
thinking behind the forecast. The depression should continue
heading generally northwestward or north-northwestward for a day
or two. The environment around the cyclone is forecast to quickly
get very hostile, which should prevent strengthening and should
cause it to dissipate within a few days, as indicated by all
dynamical models. The NHC track and intensity forecasts remain near
the various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 17.2N 35.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 18.6N 36.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 20.7N 38.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 23.1N 39.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 26.0N 40.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Advisoroes

#4 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 29, 2022 3:53 am

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112022
500 AM AST Thu Sep 29 2022

Deep convection associated with the depression has become more
concentrated overnight, but it remains well to the northeast of the
low-level center due to moderate southwesterly vertical shear.
Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB remain T2.0 or 30 kt.
Objective estimates from UW/CIMSS are slightly higher, but since the
current convective burst has not persisted very long, the initial
intensity is maintained at 30 kt, in line with the subjective
satellite estimates. The cyclone is forecast to move into an area
of stronger upper-level southwesterlies, and as a consequence the
SHIPS guidance indicates that the shear will increase to more than
30 kt in about 24 hours. Therefore, little change in strength is
expected in the short term, and weakening should occur by late
tomorrow with the depression becoming a remnant low. The system is
forecast degenerate into a trough of low pressure by 48 hours, but
the global model guidance suggests this could occur sooner.

The initial motion estimate is 320/11 kt. The depression should
continue to move generally northwestward for the next day or two
within the low- to mid-level flow. The updated track forecast is
slightly west of the previous track, but it remains close to the
various consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 17.8N 36.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 19.3N 37.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 21.3N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 23.6N 40.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Advisoroes

#5 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:40 am

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112022
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 29 2022

The overnight deep convective burst with Tropical Depression Eleven
did not appear to help spin up its low-level circulation. In fact,
morning visible satellite imagery suggest that the circulation is
actually losing definition, and may already be in the process of
opening up into a surface trough. For now, we will continue writing
advisories on the system, pending scatterometer data expected later
today. The latest intensity was held at 30 kt based on the CI
numbers from TAFB and SAB. If the current trends on visible
satellite imagery continue, the system may be declared either
post-tropical or dissipated as soon as this afternoon. Vertical wind
shear only increases from here on out as the mid-level relative
humidity remains quite low, so it looks increasingly unlikely the
structure can recover. The NHC intensity forecast shows more
immediate weakening but is generally in line with the intensity
guidance consensus.

The initial motion appears to still be off to the northwest, just a
bit faster at 320/12 kt. This general motion is expected to
continue until the system dissipates, as the system is steered
generally by a low-level ridge that has nosed in to the northeast of
the depression. The updated track is quite similar, but just a
touch west, of the prior track, remaining close to the consensus
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 19.1N 37.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 20.6N 38.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 30/1200Z 22.8N 40.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Advisoroes

#6 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:48 pm

Post-Tropical Cyclone Eleven Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112022
500 PM AST Thu Sep 29 2022

The structure of the system this afternoon has continued to go
downhill. The circulation fidelity has become increasingly diffuse
and stretched out in a north-to-south fashion. What little deep
convection remains is displaced about 100 n mi to the
north-northeast of the center and also lacks sufficient organization
to be considered a tropical cyclone. Therefore, this is the final
advisory and the system is now considered to be a post-tropical
remnant low, albeit one that is likely to open up into a surface
trough at any time.

In general the poorly-defined center still appears to be mostly on
track, moving to the northwest at 320/12 kt. This general motion is
expected to continue until the elongated circulation completely
degenerates into a surface trough over the central Atlantic basin.
A 12 hour point is mainly provided for continuity purposes, which
lies along the fairly tightly clustered consensus aids.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 19.1N 38.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 30/0600Z 20.6N 39.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin
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