BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112022
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 28 2022
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 34.4W
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 34.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and a
general north to north-northwest motion is forecast over the next
several days until the system dissipates.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible today, and the depression
could become a short-lived tropical storm. However, weakening is
expected by the end of this week, with the system dissipating by
Saturday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112022
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 28 2022
Over the past 24 hours, convection has been gradually increasing in
organization with the well-defined area of low pressure located
several hundred miles to the west of the Cabo Verde islands.
Overnight, we received Metop-B and C scatterometer data that
confirmed a closed cyclonic circulation, with peak winds up to at
least 30 kt in the deeper convection to the east of the center
location. There were even a few higher wind retrievals, but these
may have been rain contaminated in the intense convection. Since
that time, the convection has remained persistent, and TAFB has been
providing a subjective intensity estimate of T2.0/30-kt for the last
12-18 hours. A more recent scatterometer pass also indicates the
circulation remains closed and well-defined. Thus, the system can be
considered a tropical depression, and the maximum sustained winds
will be set at 30-kt for this advisory.
After meandering in the same location for the last 2-4 days, the
depression now appears to be finally gaining some latitude with the
estimated motion at 350/8-kt. The very slow motion over the past few
days was related to a large weakness in the steering flow due to a
broad and expansive upper-level trough to the north. Low to
mid-level ridging is finally starting to nose in from the east over
the past 24 hours, and the ongoing northward motion is expected to
continue with a gradual turn more north-northwestward. The guidance
is in fairly good agreement with this solution, and the initial NHC
forecast track follows closely with the reliable consensus aids TVCN
and HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA).
The depression has a short window to intensify a bit more in the
short-term, while the vertical wind shear remains under 10 kt for
the next 12-18 hours. However, as the storm gains latitude, it will
quickly become highly sheared from the aforementioned upper-level
trough that lies along its track. Thus, only slight strengthening is
shown in the 12-h forecast followed by a steady state or weakening
tropical cyclone in the 24-48 hour forecast period. The system is
expected to open up into a trough by 72 hours as it succumbs to the
highly unfavorable environment, and this could occur sooner than
forecasted. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the
majority of the guidance, and also lies near the HCCA aid.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 16.1N 34.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 17.1N 35.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 19.0N 36.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 20.8N 38.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 23.8N 39.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 26.4N 39.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112022
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 28 2022
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 34.4W
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 34.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and a
general north to north-northwest motion is forecast over the next
several days until the system dissipates.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible today, and the depression
could become a short-lived tropical storm. However, weakening is
expected by the end of this week, with the system dissipating by
Saturday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112022
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 28 2022
Over the past 24 hours, convection has been gradually increasing in
organization with the well-defined area of low pressure located
several hundred miles to the west of the Cabo Verde islands.
Overnight, we received Metop-B and C scatterometer data that
confirmed a closed cyclonic circulation, with peak winds up to at
least 30 kt in the deeper convection to the east of the center
location. There were even a few higher wind retrievals, but these
may have been rain contaminated in the intense convection. Since
that time, the convection has remained persistent, and TAFB has been
providing a subjective intensity estimate of T2.0/30-kt for the last
12-18 hours. A more recent scatterometer pass also indicates the
circulation remains closed and well-defined. Thus, the system can be
considered a tropical depression, and the maximum sustained winds
will be set at 30-kt for this advisory.
After meandering in the same location for the last 2-4 days, the
depression now appears to be finally gaining some latitude with the
estimated motion at 350/8-kt. The very slow motion over the past few
days was related to a large weakness in the steering flow due to a
broad and expansive upper-level trough to the north. Low to
mid-level ridging is finally starting to nose in from the east over
the past 24 hours, and the ongoing northward motion is expected to
continue with a gradual turn more north-northwestward. The guidance
is in fairly good agreement with this solution, and the initial NHC
forecast track follows closely with the reliable consensus aids TVCN
and HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA).
The depression has a short window to intensify a bit more in the
short-term, while the vertical wind shear remains under 10 kt for
the next 12-18 hours. However, as the storm gains latitude, it will
quickly become highly sheared from the aforementioned upper-level
trough that lies along its track. Thus, only slight strengthening is
shown in the 12-h forecast followed by a steady state or weakening
tropical cyclone in the 24-48 hour forecast period. The system is
expected to open up into a trough by 72 hours as it succumbs to the
highly unfavorable environment, and this could occur sooner than
forecasted. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the
majority of the guidance, and also lies near the HCCA aid.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 16.1N 34.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 17.1N 35.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 19.0N 36.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 20.8N 38.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 23.8N 39.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 26.4N 39.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin