EPAC: PAINE - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: PAINE - Tropical Storm

#21 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 03, 2022 9:51 pm

Tropical Storm Paine Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022
900 PM MDT Mon Oct 03 2022

The structure of Paine this evening appears to be holding steady,
with deep convective cloud tops between -70 to -80 C pulsing
primarily to the east of the well-defined low-level center. While
deep-layer vertical wind shear diagnosed by SHIPS guidance is
currently low (under 10 kt), the shear below this layer appears to
be higher, and this is likely what is resulting in the current
sheared appearance on satellite. Subjective Dvorak numbers from both
TAFB and SAB were CI 2.0/30-kt at 0000 UTC, while UW-CIMSS ADT was a
bit higher at T2.5/35-kt. The initial intensity is held at 35-kt in
deference to the earlier ASCAT data and higher ADT estimate.

The regional hurricane guidance suggests the environmental mid-level
shear will continue, and the deep-layer shear is expected to
increase markedly after 24 hours. In addition, the tropical cyclone
is embedded in a dry mid-level environment (sub 50 percent) which
should also prevent significant convective organization in the
short-term. Still, the 12 hour forecast provides an opportunity for
the storm to intensify a bit during the diurnal convective maximum.
However, Paine's intensification is likely to be short-lived, with
gradual weakening expected thereafter as shear increases and the
thermodynamic environment begins to decline. The simulated IR
imagery from the ECWMF and HWRF models suggest convection will
subside near the cyclone in the 48-60 hour mark, and the latest
forecast makes Paine a remnant low by the 60 h mark. The intensity
forecast largely follows the latest consensus aids, aside from being
a bit higher in 12 h, similar to the LGEM guidance.

The initial motion remains off to the north-northwest estimated at
335/5 kt. The cyclone is currently feeling a mid-level weakness in
the ridge to its north which should allow the system to gain more
latitude in the short-term while it remains convectively coupled.
However by 36-48 hours, this convective activity should wane,
leaving Paine to be steered more by the low-level trade winds,
generally westward. The track guidance this cycle is in two camps,
with the ECMWF and regional hurricane models (HWRF/HMON) faster to
the north, while the GFS and Canadian, which do not have a good
current representation of Paine, are slower and turn the cyclone to
the west earlier. The track forecast follows closer to the ECMWF and
the HFIP corrected consensus approach, which leans towards a
somewhat faster and more poleward motion for the first 48 hours of
the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 16.5N 112.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 17.2N 112.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 18.0N 113.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 18.7N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 19.1N 114.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 06/1200Z 19.3N 114.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0000Z 19.3N 115.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: EPAC: PAINE - Tropical Storm

#22 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:38 am

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Re: EPAC: PAINE - Tropical Storm

#23 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 04, 2022 3:45 am

Tropical Storm Paine Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022
300 AM MDT Tue Oct 04 2022

Paine is holding steady as a tropical storm. Satellite imagery has
shown a few deep convective bursts near the low-level circulation
overnight, which is now tucked underneath some cold cloud tops.
Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates range from T2.0/30 kt
and T2.5/35 kt and the initial intensity is held at 35 kt.

There is a brief window where environmental conditions are forecast
to be conducive for some additional slight strengthening. Global
models suggest the deep-layer vertical wind shear will remain low
for the next 6-12 hours as Paine moves over warm waters. Beyond
that time frame, the shear is expected to increase significantly
which will likely force the surrounding dry mid-level humidities
into the circulation and induce a weakening trend. Simulated
satellite imagery from both GFS and ECMWF suggest Paine will be a
remnant low in a couple of days. The latest NHC intensity forecast
is similar to the previous advisory, but now shows Paine becoming a
remnant low by 48 h.

The cyclone is moving northwestward at about 5 kt towards a weakness
in the ridge to its north. This general motion is expected to
continue for the next day or so until the Paine weakens and turns
westward in the low-level flow. There is still some spread in the
model guidance which seems largely linked to the depth of the
circulation and when it is expected to make the turn to the west.
The latest official track forecast is shifted south of the previous
prediction but still north of much of model guidance, excluding the
ECMWF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 16.9N 112.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 17.5N 113.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 18.3N 113.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 18.7N 114.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 19.0N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/1800Z 19.1N 115.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0600Z 19.2N 115.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci
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Re: EPAC: PAINE - Tropical Storm

#24 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Oct 04, 2022 9:53 am

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Re: EPAC: PAINE - Tropical Storm

#25 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Oct 04, 2022 9:54 am

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 041445
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Paine Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022
900 AM MDT Tue Oct 04 2022

Deep convection continues to burst around the western portion of
Paine's circulation. Infrared and early-light visible satellite
imagery suggests that there has been some increase in convective
banding, and that the center is slightly more embedded within the
colder cloud tops. Despite the slight increase in organization,
subjective and objective Dvorak classifications have not changed
much and still support an initial intensity of 35 kt. Hopefully
scatterometer data will provide additional information on the size
and intensity of Paine this afternoon.

Paine still has a very brief window of opportunity in which to
intensify. The deep-layer shear is forecast to remain low today,
but is expected to increase significantly tonight and Wednesday.
Therefore, some slight strengthening is predicted, followed by
gradual weakening due to the unfavorable upper-level environment
and an increasing dry mid-level air mass. Paine is expected to
become a remnant low in about 48 hours, and dissipate around day 3.

The cyclone is moving northwestward or 325/6 kt. Paine should
continue northwestward for the 24-36 hours around the western
side of a mid-level ridge. After that time, a bend to the
west-northwest and west is predicted as Paine becomes increasingly
shallow and is steered by the low-level tradewind flow. The
latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and
lies near the simple consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 17.5N 113.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 18.1N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 18.6N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 18.9N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 19.2N 114.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/0000Z 19.4N 115.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1200Z 19.4N 116.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: PAINE - Tropical Storm

#26 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Oct 04, 2022 11:17 am

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: EPAC: PAINE - Tropical Storm

#27 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 04, 2022 3:38 pm

Tropical Storm Paine Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022
300 PM MDT Tue Oct 04 2022

There has been a general increase in banding around the western and
southern portions of Paine's circulation today, with the center
embedded within the colder cloud tops. However, the bands are
somewhat fragmented, and subjective Dvorak classifications are a
consensus T2.5 (35 kt). Objective estimates from UW/CIMSS are
slightly higher and support an initial intensity of 40 kt, which
is used for this advisory. Unfortunately, ASCAT missed the system
this afternoon, and once again there is no scatterometer data to
better determine the system's intensity or size.

Paine's window for further strengthening is expected to close later
tonight. After that time, increasing westerly shear and a drier
mid-level environment are likely to begin to lower Paine's
intensity. Weakening is anticipated on Wednesday, and simulated
satellite imagery from the global models indicate that convection
will cease, and Paine is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low
by 36 hours. This system is forecast to dissipate by day 3.

Paine is moving northwestward at about 5 kt. The cyclone should
continue to move on that general heading and speed through early
Wednesday as it is steered around the western side of a mid-level
ridge. After that time, a bend to the west-northwest and west is
anticipated as Paine becomes increasingly shallow and is steered by
the low-level flow. The official track forecast is once again near
the multi-model consensus aids and it is not very different than
this morning's forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 17.8N 113.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 18.3N 113.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 18.7N 114.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 19.0N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1800Z 19.2N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/0600Z 19.2N 116.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN
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Re: EPAC: PAINE - Tropical Storm

#28 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Oct 04, 2022 5:00 pm

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Re: EPAC: PAINE - Tropical Storm

#29 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 04, 2022 10:00 pm

Tropical Storm Paine Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022
900 PM MDT Tue Oct 04 2022

During the past few hours, convection associated with Paine has
decreased significantly, as most of the cold cloud tops near the
center are currently comprised of cirrus debris. This decrease has
not yet affected the various satellite intensity estimates, which
remain in the 35-40 kt range. The initial intensity is thus held
at 40 kt, but this could be generous.

The window of opportunity for Paine to strengthen is just about
closed. The cyclone is starting to encounter increasing westerly
vertical wind shear, and it is embedded in a dry air mass that may
make it difficult for the convection to re-develop. Indeed,
simulated satellite imagery from the latest GFS run suggests the
possibility that the convection may not return even at the normal
diurnal maximum in about 12 h. The intensity forecast calls for
gradual weakening, with the cyclone degenerating to a remnant low
between 24-36 h and dissipating completely between 60-72 h. Both
of these events could happen earlier if the convection does not
re-develop.

The initial motion remains northwestward or 325/5 kt. This motion
should persist for the next 12 h or so. After that, a slow motion
toward the west-northwest and west is anticipated as the weakening
Paine becomes increasingly shallow and is steered by the low-level
flow. The new official forecast is basically an update of the
previous forecast and lies near the various consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 18.1N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 18.5N 114.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 18.8N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 19.0N 115.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0000Z 19.1N 115.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/1200Z 19.2N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: PAINE - Tropical Storm

#30 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Oct 04, 2022 10:53 pm

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Re: EPAC: PAINE - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2022 3:47 am

Tropical Storm Paine Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022
300 AM MDT Wed Oct 05 2022

The satellite presentation of Paine has degraded during the past
several hours. Apart from one small burst of convection being
sheared away from the center, the cyclone is generally just a
low-level circulation. Satellite intensity estimates have fallen and
the initial intensity has been lowered to a possibly generous 35 kt.
Global models indicate that moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear
and increasingly dry mid-level air will prevent Paine from
intensifying in the future. Simulated satellite imagery from these
models also suggests that little or no new deep, organized
convection is likely to form. The official forecast now shows Paine
becoming a remnant low within 12 hours.

Paine is passing just east of Clarion Island while moving northwest
at about 4 kt. This motion is expected to gradually turn to the
west-northwest and west today as the shallow vortex is steered by
the low-level winds. The NHC track prediction is shifted slightly
south of the previous forecast track and near the center of the
model guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 18.3N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 18.6N 114.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 06/0600Z 18.8N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/1800Z 19.0N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0600Z 19.1N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/1800Z 19.2N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci
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Re: EPAC: PAINE - Tropical Storm

#32 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Oct 05, 2022 9:14 am

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Re: EPAC: PAINE - Post-Tropical

#33 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2022 3:44 pm

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Paine Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022
300 PM MDT Wed Oct 05 2022

...PAINE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 114.8W
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES



Post-Tropical Cyclone Paine Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022
300 PM MDT Wed Oct 05 2022

Paine has been devoid of organized deep convection for about
18 hours, and it now consists of a swirl of low- to mid-level
clouds. Therefore, the system no longer meets the definition
of a tropical cyclone, and the system has become post-tropical.
The initial intensity has been reduced to 25 kt, which is based on
recent ASCAT data. Strong shear and less favorable thermodynamic
conditions are expected to cause additional weakening over the next
day or so. The global model guidance indicates that the remnant low
will degenerate into a trough of low pressure within 48 hours.

Now that Paine has become vertically shallow, it has turned
west-northwestward. A continued slow west-northwestward to westward
motion within the low-level flow should continue until dissipation
occurs. The updated NHC track forecast has been adjusted southward
and it lies along the southern side of the guidance envelope.

This is the last NHC forecast advisory on Paine. For additional
information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 18.3N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 06/0600Z 18.4N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 06/1800Z 18.6N 115.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/0600Z 18.7N 116.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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