EPAC: JULIA - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Looks like it is sitting under an anti-cyclone

[InfernoFlameCat]

Very impressive burst. We will have to see where it goes. It could be a CCC or a CDO developing.

[aspen]

Interesting that the lowest pressure is not in the center

Maybe it’s still tilted from the shear that otherwise seems to have dropped significantly, or this is just an effect of its ongoing center reformation.

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like it is sitting under an anti-cyclone

I'm looking at the deep layer and mid-level shear maps, and it seems like Julia is in a very favorable position

[GCANE]

GFS is showing the remnants of the ML vort, as it crosses CA, possibly spinning something up in the BoC.

[GCANE]

Looks like it is sitting under an anti-cyclone

I'm looking at the deep layer and mid-level shear maps, and it seems like Julia is in a very favorable position

It appears to be in a secondary Anti-Cyclonic Wave Break (ARWB)
The main ARWB is to the northwest off the east coast of the Yucatan.
Good thing it didn't get into that one.

[GCANE]

The one tower that is now dissipating showed a brief hot spot on IR.

[GCANE]

Very strong helicity on the current tower. Can even see the lightning pattern rotating.

[cheezyWXguy]

Wtf is going on with the windfield lol

[GCANE]

Both planes are in that big tower.
Looks like this will be the one that ramps Julia up.

[GCANE]

That helicity appears to now be creating a hot spot

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/VegaBajaWx/status/1578528251642662916




Yikes

[Hurricaneman]

That helicity appears to now be creating a hot spot

Might be an eye forming, this is a lot more than 35 kts

[Iceresistance]

That helicity appears to now be creating a hot spot

Might be an eye forming, this is a lot more than 35 kts

Advisory has this at 45 mph and 999 mb, recon may have found a slightly decoupled LLC, but it's not going to take much for Julia to explode.

[aspen]

Julia might be trying to consolidate around 12N, but the NOAA and AF planes at different altitudes are showing different center locations. The vortex looks to still be a bit tilted despite the convection burst. If the center relocation is successful, Julia could start a phase of RI tonight. If not, then its structure could be set back a bit.

[cheezyWXguy]

2nd plane suggests that some of the weirdness in the southern side of the circulation is evening out. Probably a lot of reorganizing at the surface ongoing

[Teban54]

Wow. Reminds me of Delta (although obviously not there yet).

[Iceresistance]

One of the Recon planes just missed the center, but has found extrapolated pressure down to 997.1 mb.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1578546688121196544

[Iceresistance]

Recon is finding multiple LLCs inside Julia, hope that will limit it from being stronger.