EPAC: JULIA - Remnants - Discussion

[ChrisH-UK]

Radar loop from Columbian radar on San Andres island

http://www.pronosticosyalertas.gov.co/archivos-radar

[aspen]

That has got to be by far the weirdest center pass I’ve ever seen. Somehow it supports hurricane intensity lol.

[Hammy]

That has got to be by far the weirdest center pass I’ve ever seen. Somehow it supports hurricane intensity lol.

NOAA plane, I've seen them do this before, avoiding a center pass in order to sample a larger area of eyewall

[ScottNAtlanta]

Plane just measured a 989 pressure, and a dropsonde had 63kts surface

[Iceresistance]

lowest extrapolated pressure at 989.8 mb from the AF Plane

[Hammy]

Hurricane Julia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
700 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

...JULIA BECOMES A HURRICANE...

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Julia has become a hurricane with 75 mph (120 km/h)
maximum sustained winds as it passes near San Andres and
Providencia Islands.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 81.7W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM S OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND COLOMBIA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES

[Nimbus]

At least its not headed for a highly populated coastline.
Apparently the latest model runs aren't bringing the moisture remnants back across the gulf later in the forecast?

[aspen]

Central America really dodged a bullet here. If Julia wasn’t plagued by center reformations/unexpected northerly shear and got its act together faster, we’d be looking at a possible Cat 3/4 landfall instead of a Cat 1. Flooding looks to be a huge issue regardless of final landfall intensity.

[cheezyWXguy]

Central America really dodged a bullet here. If Julia wasn’t plagued by center reformations/unexpected northerly shear and got its act together faster, we’d be looking at a possible Cat 3/4 landfall instead of a Cat 1. Flooding looks to be a huge issue regardless of final landfall intensity.

Honestly it’s kind of amazing it even got this strong given how persistently broad its circulation has been. Even now the strongest winds are fairly spread out from the core. I know the tropopause is higher in the tropics and cooler as we get later in the season, but I expected the core to tighten up quite a bit more with all that deep convection.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Hot towers rotating around the center. Holy crap it’s going crazy.

[Craters]

If Julia were the "S" storm, this would have been an epic one for the ages.


image hosting service

[ScottNAtlanta]

Recon is reporting a 35 mile wide eye open in the west

[Landy]

Wow, that is a very impressive burst.

[aspen]

Central America really dodged a bullet here. If Julia wasn’t plagued by center reformations/unexpected northerly shear and got its act together faster, we’d be looking at a possible Cat 3/4 landfall instead of a Cat 1. Flooding looks to be a huge issue regardless of final landfall intensity.

Honestly it’s kind of amazing it even got this strong given how persistently broad its circulation has been. Even now the strongest winds are fairly spread out from the core. I know the tropopause is higher in the tropics and cooler as we get later in the season, but I expected the core to tighten up quite a bit more with all that deep convection.

The core probably would’ve tightened up faster if it wasn’t for the mystery shear, and I’m calling that because I don’t know where it came from. I checked the GFS 200mb, 500mb, and 850mb products, and I couldn’t find the source of the shear from earlier today. What makes things weirder is how, with the exception of a few hours today and yesterday where the developing CDO was partially or entirely blown off, shear has been pretty favorable. It’s just two random instances where shear suddenly rose. The closest analog to this might be Delta’s sudden collapse from the unexpected spike in mid-level shear, but that didn’t damage the CDO, it just broke the core. I believe it lasted until Delta’s landfall, meaning it lasted longer than Julia’s two shear incidents.

[FireRat]

Wow, that is a very impressive burst.
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/857022688123682837/1028480352567697428/goes16_ir_13L_202210082215.gif?width=951&height=669

Holy Cow!

[Landy]

Raw T from ADT is about what you'd expect. Gotta love the tropopause here

[CrazyC83]

Raw T from ADT is about what you'd expect. Gotta love the tropopause here
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/716215692617187328/1028483811643764767/unknown.png

These low-latitude storms can have incredibly cold cloud tops.

[Teban54]

Raw T from ADT is about what you'd expect. Gotta love the tropopause here
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/716215692617187328/1028483811643764767/unknown.png

These low-latitude storms can have incredibly cold cloud tops.

What I always wondered is why Iota's CDO wasn't nearly as cold and fell more in line with typical storms at that intensity, despite being so late in the year and at such low latitude.

[mantis83]

Central America really dodged a bullet here. If Julia wasn’t plagued by center reformations/unexpected northerly shear and got its act together faster, we’d be looking at a possible Cat 3/4 landfall instead of a Cat 1. Flooding looks to be a huge issue regardless of final landfall intensity.

Honestly it’s kind of amazing it even got this strong given how persistently broad its circulation has been. Even now the strongest winds are fairly spread out from the core. I know the tropopause is higher in the tropics and cooler as we get later in the season, but I expected the core to tighten up quite a bit more with all that deep convection.

The core probably would’ve tightened up faster if it wasn’t for the mystery shear, and I’m calling that because I don’t know where it came from. I checked the GFS 200mb, 500mb, and 850mb products, and I couldn’t find the source of the shear from earlier today. What makes things weirder is how, with the exception of a few hours today and yesterday where the developing CDO was partially or entirely blown off, shear has been pretty favorable. It’s just two random instances where shear suddenly rose. The closest analog to this might be Delta’s sudden collapse from the unexpected spike in mid-level shear, but that didn’t damage the CDO, it just broke the core. I believe it lasted until Delta’s landfall, meaning it lasted longer than Julia’s two shear incidents.

whatever the reason, it's good for the people down there....

[cheezyWXguy]

Raw T from ADT is about what you'd expect. Gotta love the tropopause here
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/716215692617187328/1028483811643764767/unknown.png

Haha really trivializes Eta’s raw Ts in the same spot