EPAC: JULIA - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

So, GFS is showing this opening up as a large wave at 700mb over land with tip on the SW end of the Yucatan.
Then enters the BoC with a ARWB overhead.
Not a bad scenario for reorganization.

[GCANE]

Flight level winds look to be picking up. Almost 60 knts peak

And for once it’s not significantly removed from the center. This could finally be the center that sticks.

Looks better, especially with that high rain rate

[GCANE]

Drop records 996mb
Down again

[aspen]

With how discombobulated the center has been, I’m getting doubtful Julia will peak at more than 70-75 kt. Its structure has a long way to go — there’s not even part of an eyewall yet — and very little time to improve. Also, I think there might still be a bit of shear in one of the levels, because the center looks to be partially exposed again.

[GCANE]

Drop records 996mb
Down again

Also 95% RH at 850mb.
Might try and make a run for it

[GCANE]

Lots of heavy convection over the high OHC pool, east of the CoC of Julia.
This pulls latent heat out of the pool due to cold down drafts and pushes it into the boundary layer.
Also heats the mid layer from water to ice phase change in the updraft.
Could be enough time for all that to work into the core before landfall.

[GCANE]

Those 50+ knt FL winds, north of the CoC, seem to be pushing energy from the OHC pool rapidly into the core.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Shear is limiting the storm. Heavy convection won’t do much good if it can’t drop the pressure of a stable llc. All it is doing is lowering the broad pressure as of right now.

[cheezyWXguy]

Overshooting tops in the large CB now orienting themselves in a curved arc through the southeast quad. I wonder if it’s starting to form a partial eyewall in there

[Category5Kaiju]

Shear is limiting the storm. Heavy convection won’t do much good if it can’t drop the pressure of a stable llc. All it is doing is lowering the broad pressure as of right now.

Would you mind clarifying where the shear is though? It seems to be right under a deep layer anticyclone according to the deep layer shear map

[GCANE]

Rotation is increasing quickly on VIS Sat

[aspen]

Shear is limiting the storm. Heavy convection won’t do much good if it can’t drop the pressure of a stable llc. All it is doing is lowering the broad pressure as of right now.

Would you mind clarifying where the shear is though? It seems to be right under a deep layer anticyclone according to the deep layer shear map

I checked the 200, 500, and 850 mbar level plots on the GFS, and all the flow is in the same direction. I’m not sure what level this shear is and what’s causing it, but it sure is apparent on satellite imagery. I had a suspicion shear would be an unexpected limiting factor for Julia after yesterday’s convective burst got blown off.

[galaxy401]

Considering it's moving over 20 mph, perhaps the fast forward motion is causing Julia to struggle forming a solid well-organized LLC.

[GCANE]

New drop reporting 994mb
96% RH at 850mb

[Argcane]

LLC partially exposed near 13°N 80°W

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Running out of time. Might only just barely make to hurricane status at landfall.

[aspen]

Considering it's moving over 20 mph, perhaps the fast forward motion is causing Julia to struggle forming a solid well-organized LLC.

Maybe, but that doesn’t explain why shear is coming from the north, perpendicular to the storm’s motion and the flows at the 200mb, 500mb, and 850mb levels. If fast forward speed was the main problem, wouldn’t the shear vector be close to horizontal and not vertical?

[cheezyWXguy]

This pass shows a lot more consolidated circulation. Whatever shear there is shouldn’t be enough to stop this from wrapping convection back around to the north eventually.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1578778230214926336

[Sciencerocks]