EPAC: JULIA - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1912
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#501 Postby Teban54 » Sat Oct 08, 2022 1:11 pm

You can clearly see the pickup in shear on satellite loops:
Image
Image
Unfortunate timing (from a storm perspective), just when Julia finally sorted out its LLC.
0 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8897
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#502 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Oct 08, 2022 1:17 pm

Teban54 wrote:You can clearly see the pickup in shear on satellite loops:
https://i.postimg.cc/LsTMV8HK/goes16-ir-13-L-202210081305.gif
https://i.postimg.cc/xTMjzYbY/goes16-vis-13-L-202210081305.gif
Unfortunate timing (from a storm perspective), just when Julia finally sorted out its LLC.


Might be a good thing for Central America for less storm surge and wind impacts.
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2899
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
Location: Cape Canaveral, FL

Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#503 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Oct 08, 2022 1:30 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Teban54 wrote:You can clearly see the pickup in shear on satellite loops:
https://i.postimg.cc/LsTMV8HK/goes16-ir-13-L-202210081305.gif
https://i.postimg.cc/xTMjzYbY/goes16-vis-13-L-202210081305.gif
Unfortunate timing (from a storm perspective), just when Julia finally sorted out its LLC.


Might be a good thing for Central America for less storm surge and wind impacts.


Indeed. Won't do much for the rain, but I'm sure they'd rather face down a 55 knot TS vs a rapidly intensifying Cat 2.
0 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#504 Postby LarryWx » Sat Oct 08, 2022 2:06 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Teban54 wrote:You can clearly see the pickup in shear on satellite loops:
https://i.postimg.cc/LsTMV8HK/goes16-ir-13-L-202210081305.gif
https://i.postimg.cc/xTMjzYbY/goes16-vis-13-L-202210081305.gif
Unfortunate timing (from a storm perspective), just when Julia finally sorted out its LLC.


Might be a good thing for Central America for less storm surge and wind impacts.


Indeed. Won't do much for the rain, but I'm sure they'd rather face down a 55 knot TS vs a rapidly intensifying Cat 2.


But what would do good for the rain is quicker movement like what we have now though some slowdown is progged.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
ScottNAtlanta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1992
Joined: Sat May 25, 2013 3:11 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#505 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sat Oct 08, 2022 2:38 pm

There seems to be some convection firing on the northern side now.
One more thing...if this makes it to the Pacific still a storm and retains its name, have there ever been 2 storms in one season to do so?
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1912
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#506 Postby Teban54 » Sat Oct 08, 2022 2:58 pm

Looks like hot towers are finally rotating upshear, but it's probably too late.
Image
0 likes   

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#507 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Oct 08, 2022 3:29 pm

Julia's upper-level environment seems otherwise quite favorable for intensification. The one thing I could see being the reason why it's not blowing up is its forward speed. It's very hard for hurricanes traveling +15 mph to intensify explosively. I guarantee you that things likely would be very different if Julia were a lot slower.
1 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
InfernoFlameCat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1966
Age: 20
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
Location: Buford, GA

Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#508 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Oct 08, 2022 3:36 pm

Storm is slowing down. Track could shift north. It will be landfalling at an angle. This prolongs intense winds and expands areas of impacts. RI has begun.
0 likes   
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.

User avatar
InfernoFlameCat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1966
Age: 20
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
Location: Buford, GA

Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#509 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Oct 08, 2022 3:48 pm

Appears to have been a wobble. I fear this storm may start explosively intensifying. Fortunately i doubt it has enough time to ramp up enough to break into Cat 3 territory. We shall see.
1 likes   
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.

User avatar
InfernoFlameCat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1966
Age: 20
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
Location: Buford, GA

Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#510 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Oct 08, 2022 3:51 pm

If this pinholes, then there will be the possibility of explosive intensification. It could not have a better environment.
0 likes   
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5523
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#511 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Oct 08, 2022 3:52 pm

Next 2 recon planes picked a good time to get into the storm. First time I’m seeing anticyclonic outflow coming off the cdo on the ne side. Convective structure looks a lot more like a strengthening system than it did this morning. Recon could very well find sub 990mb pressures and winds approaching cat1
0 likes   

User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3997
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#512 Postby South Texas Storms » Sat Oct 08, 2022 3:54 pm

Landfall will likely occur in about 12 hours. I would be surprised if it got above 75 kt winds prior to landfall. Flooding should be the biggest threat from this storm.
2 likes   

Michele B
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 906
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2016 8:08 am
Location: SWFL

Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#513 Postby Michele B » Sat Oct 08, 2022 3:57 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:There seems to be some convection firing on the northern side now.
One more thing...if this makes it to the Pacific still a storm and retains its name, have there ever been 2 storms in one season to do so?


I remember that happening once before - but Pacific to Atlantic (well, GoM). I think they change the name to the next name in the list for that ocean.
0 likes   
Cleo - 1964, Betsy - 1965, David - 1979, Andrew - 1992, Charlie (Francis, Ivan, Jeanne) - 2004, Irma - 2017, Ian - 2022

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7281
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#514 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Oct 08, 2022 4:05 pm

Image
2 likes   

User avatar
bahamaswx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1542
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2003 1:11 am
Location: Georgetown, Bahamas

Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#515 Postby bahamaswx » Sat Oct 08, 2022 4:46 pm

Thankfully Julia doesn't have more time. Looks like she could've been a monster.
4 likes   

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5523
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#516 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Oct 08, 2022 4:59 pm

bahamaswx wrote:Thankfully Julia doesn't have more time. Looks like she could've been a monster.

Very much agree. If it hasn’t already started RI, it likely will very soon. Fortunately there’s just not that much time for it to do so.
0 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8897
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#517 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Oct 08, 2022 5:06 pm

Recon has found Hurricane Force FL winds, SMFR at 55 knots

Pressure is at 997.7 and not even at the center yet.
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5523
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#518 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Oct 08, 2022 5:10 pm

66kt FL, 58kt SFMR in the E quad. May have a hurricane now, since the strongest winds should be found in the NE quad
2 likes   

ChrisH-UK
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 417
Joined: Sat May 29, 2021 8:22 am

Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#519 Postby ChrisH-UK » Sat Oct 08, 2022 5:14 pm

Radar from the sky aka GOES-17 Optical Depth, as you can see in the 2 hour loop Julia is starting to form a eye.

Source - https://col.st/KsIw6

0 likes   

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5523
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#520 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Oct 08, 2022 5:20 pm

Extrap down to 991.5 with 55kt FL winds, probably going to find central pressure in the mid 980s. This is probably a hurricane now. That said, the windfield isn’t very uniform and pretty spread out. Wouldn’t expect Julia to explode before landfall unless it rapidly improves
0 likes   


Return to “2022”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 24 guests