EPAC: JULIA - Remnants - Discussion
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- Hurrilurker
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
People north and east of CA really got lucky with this one, if there happened to be a trough that lifted north into the GOM it would potentially be massive trouble.
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- galaxy401
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
As I said before but these October Caribbean storms can get really nasty if at the right location. Won't be surprised if it RIs this weekend. Nicaragua needs to watch this storm.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
One thing with these Central American systems is that damage often occurs (well) away from the center due to flooding. Eta caused more deaths in Honduras, Guatemala, Mexico and Panama than Nicaragua where it made landfall. Nate in 2017 caused enough damage in Costa Rica to warrant retirement, even though its track was nowhere close to making landfall there.
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- ScottNAtlanta
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
These systems can rapidly intensify in this area. Iris (2001) was trying to organize and when it finally did it went from 95mph to 140mph in 12 hours (NHC had forecast a peak of 105). It RI'd when the track started going south of west. Just shows how quickly this can happen here. The eye also shrunk to 7 miles (a record Wilma would break in four years with 3 miles wide.) Iris was a relatively compact storm.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Iris
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Iris
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Teban54 wrote:One thing with these Central American systems is that damage often occurs (well) away from the center due to flooding. Eta caused more deaths in Honduras, Guatemala, Mexico and Panama than Nicaragua where it made landfall. Nate in 2017 caused enough damage in Costa Rica to warrant retirement, even though its track was nowhere close to making landfall there.
Same with Iota if I'm not mistaken.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Recon is taking off. Maybe it’ll find TS Julia when it arrives.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
I can't imagine why this wouldn't be a 40 knot TS already. We'll see what the recon finds.
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
It's leaving land now, and based on the shear maps, looks like mid-level and deep-layer shear over the system will be quite low for a while.
Something tells me that this has the potential to really bomb out. Yes, I really think we really need to keep an eye on what at this point looks highly likely to be Julia, because there's a non-zero chance Julia will perform quite well and become the third retirement lock for this season.
Something tells me that this has the potential to really bomb out. Yes, I really think we really need to keep an eye on what at this point looks highly likely to be Julia, because there's a non-zero chance Julia will perform quite well and become the third retirement lock for this season.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Julia
https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal132022.dat
AL, 13, 2022100712, , BEST, 0, 123N, 720W, 35, 1004, TS
https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal132022.dat
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Yeah, um...
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Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Category5Kaiju wrote:It's leaving land now, and based on the shear maps, looks like mid-level and deep-layer shear over the system will be quite low for a while.
Something tells me that this has the potential to really bomb out. Yes, I really think we really need to keep an eye on what at this point looks highly likely to be Julia, because there's a non-zero chance Julia will perform quite well and become the third retirement lock for this season.
If Julia ends up anything like other recent Central America landfalling storms, then all three names likely to be retired this year are replacements for 2004 storms. Fiona replaced Frances, Ian replaced Igor after replacing Ivan, and Julia replaced Jeanne. Colin is the one exception, because I guess that name is fated to only be used for the most pathetic and questionable shorties possible.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- tropicwatch
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
HH finding increasing winds the closer it gets to the center of TD 13. Of course, comms go down right as things are getting good.
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Tropicwatch
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- skyline385
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
ATCF updates to TS
AL, 13, 2022100712, , BEST, 0, 123N, 720W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1009, 120, 30, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, THIRTEEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033,
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- Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
May have lost signal with Recon.
Maybe this post would get the signal back.
Maybe this post would get the signal back.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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- tropicwatch
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Just went through center, extrapolated pressure 1002.7 highest surface wind before comms went down 39mph. Two readings with that wind.
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Tropicwatch
Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Of course comms are down just for the center pass and come back on afterwards.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Very distinct center and pressure drop. Windfield is still sprawling, but it’s getting it’s act together
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- Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
cheezyWXguy wrote:Very distinct center and pressure drop. Windfield is still sprawling, but it’s getting it’s act together
VDM has 1002 mb
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
We have first VDM.
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132022
A. 07/13:33:40Z
B. 12.63 deg N 072.66 deg W
C. 925 mb 707 m
D. EXTRAP 1002 mb
E. NA
F. NA
G. NA
H. 34 kt
I. 060 deg 66 nm 13:11:00Z
J. 130 deg 47 kt
K. 060 deg 67 nm 13:10:30Z
L. 31 kt
M. 314 deg 69 nm 13:55:30Z
N. 081 deg 45 kt
O. 314 deg 88 nm 14:01:00Z
P. 21 C / 760 m
Q. 23 C / 761 m
R. 21 C / NA
S. 1345 / 9
T. 0.02 / 3 nm
U. AF307 0413A CYCLONE OB 03
MAX FL WIND 47 KT 060 / 67 NM 13:10:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
A. 07/13:33:40Z
B. 12.63 deg N 072.66 deg W
C. 925 mb 707 m
D. EXTRAP 1002 mb
E. NA
F. NA
G. NA
H. 34 kt
I. 060 deg 66 nm 13:11:00Z
J. 130 deg 47 kt
K. 060 deg 67 nm 13:10:30Z
L. 31 kt
M. 314 deg 69 nm 13:55:30Z
N. 081 deg 45 kt
O. 314 deg 88 nm 14:01:00Z
P. 21 C / 760 m
Q. 23 C / 761 m
R. 21 C / NA
S. 1345 / 9
T. 0.02 / 3 nm
U. AF307 0413A CYCLONE OB 03
MAX FL WIND 47 KT 060 / 67 NM 13:10:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
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- Hurricane2022
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Looks like that 13L still suffering with strong wind shear due to it's convective bands at north.
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