EPAC: JULIA - Advisories

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Re: ATL: JULIA - Advisories

#21 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 08, 2022 9:35 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Julia Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

...CENTER OF JULIA SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN NICARAGUA DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 82.7W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM W OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND COLOMBIA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES



Hurricane Julia Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Julia became a hurricane near 08/23Z. NOAA measured
700-mb flight-level winds of 73 kt and estimated surface winds of
67 kt on the SFMR, while the Air Force measured 850-mb flight-level
winds of 75 kt. The central pressure fell to near 988 mb while the
planes were in the cyclone. Based on these data, the initial
intensity is set at 65 kt.

The initial motion is still westward or 270/14 kt. Strong
deep-layer ridging to the north of the hurricane should steer Julia
generally westward during the next couple of days with a gradual
decrease in forward speed. This motion should bring the center
across the coast of Nicaragua during the next several hours, then
across Nicaragua on Sunday before emerging into the Pacific late
Sunday or Sunday night. After that, Julia, or its remnants, are
expected to continue moving generally westward until the system
dissipates. The new official forecast track is very similar to the
previous track and lies close to the various consensus models.

Julia has only a few more hours before landfall in Nicaragua.
However, infrared and microwave satellite imagery shows that the
convective structure has become much better organized, and the
hurricane would likely undergo rapid intensification if it wasn't
about to make landfall. While not explicitly shown in the
intensity forecast, maximum sustained winds could reach 70-75 kt
before landfall. A quick weakening is expected after landfall, but
Julia is forecast to be at or near tropical storm strength when it
emerges off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua. The intensity forecast
still calls for Julia to weaken over the Pacific and dissipate
after 48 h as it becomes absorbed by a broader area of low pressure
associated with a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event, a scenario
supported by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. However, the
UKMET maintains some uncertainty about this, as it shows Julia
surviving and movingly slowly westward into the Pacific during the
next several days.

Regardless of Julia's track and existence as a tropical cyclone,
the evolving weather pattern is likely to lead to heavy rains
over Central America for several days, which could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas
of mountainous terrain.


Key Messages:

1. Julia is expected to reach the coast of Nicaragua as a hurricane
within the next several hours. Hurricane-force winds and a
dangerous storm surge will continue in portions of Providencia and
San Andres islands during the next few hours, and are expected near
the core of the hurricane when it moves onshore in Nicaragua.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across
portions of Central America this weekend. Flash flooding is
possible across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next
week.

3. Julia is forecast to remain as a tropical storm while it moves
across Central America to the adjacent Pacific waters, and tropical
storm warnings are in effect along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua,
Honduras, and El Salvador to account for the possibility of
tropical-storm-force winds in those areas late Sunday and Sunday
night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 12.5N 82.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 12.5N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 10/0000Z 12.6N 87.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 10/1200Z 13.0N 90.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 13.4N 92.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Advisories

#22 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2022 4:01 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Julia Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
500 AM EDT Sun Oct 09 2022

...JULIA BRINGING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 84.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNW OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES




Hurricane Julia Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
500 AM EDT Sun Oct 09 2022

Julia is estimated to have made landfall as a 75-kt hurricane around
0715 UTC along the coast of Nicaragua near Pearl Lagoon. The
hurricane appeared to strengthen through landfall, with a more
well-defined inner core noted in passive microwave imagery and a
center that was embedded deep within the very cold central dense
overcast overnight. With the center now located just inland over
eastern Nicaragua, the initial intensity is held at 75 kt for this
advisory, which is supported by the last ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS
(75 kt) and the 06 UTC Dvorak estimate from SAB (77 kt).

Julia is moving westward at about 14 kt, and a strong ridge that
extends across the southern Gulf of Mexico will continue to steer
Julia quickly westward across Nicaragua today. The center of the
cyclone is forecast to emerge over the eastern Pacific waters this
evening or tonight and then move westward or west-northwestward near
the Pacific coast of El Salvador and Guatemala on Monday. There is
still above average uncertainty in this part of the forecast. While
some models (ECMWF, HWRF, HMON) have trended closer to the coast and
even show Julia moving inland, the UKMET lies on the southern edge
of the envelope and keeps Julia farther offshore. The GFS is
somewhere in the middle, generally showing the vortex skirting the
coast. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the north of the
previous one at 36-48 h, in line with the majority of the models.

Land interaction should result in considerable weakening of Julia
during the next 12 h or so. However, the fast forward motion is
forecast to keep the surface circulation intact, and various models
indicate the cyclone will maintain enough organization to remain a
tropical storm as it moves off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua later
today. The NHC forecast track keeps the center near the coast, where
the topography of Central America could further disrupt its
low-level structure. The models also indicate that deep-layer
easterly shear may increase over the cyclone during the next 24-36
h. Based on these factors, the official NHC forecast shows Julia
gradually weakening on Monday and then dissipating on Tuesday. If
the track deviates farther north as suggested by some of the models,
Julia could move inland and dissipate even sooner than forecast.

Regardless of Julia's track and future status as a tropical cyclone,
the evolving weather pattern is likely to lead to heavy rains over
Central America for several days, which could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous
terrain.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge are occurring
along portions of the coast of Nicaragua where the core of Julia
made landfall this morning.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across
portions of Central America Sunday and Monday. Flash flooding is
anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this
week.

3. Julia is forecast to remain as a tropical storm while it moves
across Central America to the adjacent Pacific waters, and tropical
storm warnings are in effect along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua,
Honduras, and El Salvador to account for the possibility of
tropical-storm-force winds in those areas later today through
Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 12.4N 84.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
12H 09/1800Z 12.5N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 10/0600Z 12.7N 88.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 10/1800Z 13.3N 91.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 14.1N 93.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Advisories

#23 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2022 6:43 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 09 2022

...JULIA MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS NICARAGUA, STILL AS A HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 84.6W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM WNW OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM E OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Advisories

#24 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2022 11:29 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022

...JULIA MOVING ACROSS NICARAGUA...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 85.4W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ENE OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ESE OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Advisories

#25 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2022 1:15 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
100 PM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022

...JULIA MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS NICARAGUA, APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
COAST...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 86.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNE OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM ESE OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Advisories

#26 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2022 3:43 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182022
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022

...JULIA ABOUT TO MOVE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 86.9W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WNW OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ESE OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182022
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022

Julia's center has raced across Nicaragua all day and is just about
ready to emerge over the eastern Pacific waters. Low-topped
convection continues near the center, and the circulation remains
well defined in visible satellite imagery, radar data from Managua,
and surface observations from Nicaragua. Some deeper convection
continues to form in a band over eastern Nicaragua and over the
adjacent Pacific waters. Based on a typical decay rate of a
tropical cyclone's winds over land, the initial intensity is
estimated to be 45 kt.

Even though Julia has made it across Nicaragua intact as a tropical
cyclone, the interaction with land has still taken a toll.
Moderate deep-layer shear out of the east-northeast has also begun
to affect the cyclone, and forecast wind fields from the GFS,
ECMWF, and UKMET all show the circulation shrinking over the next
day or so. Using these models as the basis for the intensity
forecast, continued weakening is anticipated, and Julia is likely to
fall below tropical storm strength in 12 to 24 hours. The cyclone
is then expected to dissipate by 36 hours when it becomes absorbed
by a broader surface trough farther west associated with an ongoing
Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event.

Julia's fast westward motion has continued, but it's reaching the
western end of the subtropical ridge and should turn toward the
west-northwest and slow down a bit over the next 24 hours. The NHC
track forecast lies on the northern side of the model trackers and
closely follows the raw wind and pressure fields from the GFS,
ECMWF, and UKMET models, moving Julia very close to and parallel to
the Pacific coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala before
dissipation. Most of the model trackers are not valid in this
case since they are attached to the aforementioned broader area of
vorticity to the west and not Julia itself.


Key Messages:

1. Julia is forecast to move over the far eastern Pacific waters
as a tropical storm through early Monday near the coasts of
Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador, where tropical storm warnings
are in effect. Tropical-force-winds are also possible on Monday
along the Pacific coast of Guatemala, where a tropical storm watch
is in effect.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across
portions of Central America tonight and Monday. Flash flooding is
anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this
week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 12.4N 86.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE NIC. COAST
12H 10/0600Z 12.8N 88.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 10/1800Z 13.6N 90.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: JULIA - Advisories

#27 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2022 7:23 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182022
700 PM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022

...CENTER OF JULIA EMERGES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...
...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO
THROUGH TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 87.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WNW OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SE OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
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Re: EPAC: JULIA - Advisories

#28 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2022 9:49 pm


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182022
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022

...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM JULIA SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES TO CONTINUE
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 88.1W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES



Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182022
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022

Julia's low-level center has not been easy to locate this evening
in infrared satellite imagery, but a couple of SSMIS microwave
overpasses between 2300-2331 UTC suggest that the center was
located very close to the northwestern coast of Nicaragua. A band
of deep convection has developed to the southeast of the estimated
center but it lacks significant curvature. Assuming some additional
weakening occurred before Julia exited the coast, the initial
intensity has been reduced to 35 kt which is in line with the
latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. However, there is larger than
normal uncertainty regarding Julia's initial intensity. Hopefully,
scatterometer data will provide some clarity on the intensity of
the cyclone overnight.

Since the northern portion of Julia's circulation is forecast to
continue interacting with the mountainous terrain of central
America, additional weakening is expected over the next 12 to 24
hours. Forecast wind fields from the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET indicate
that the circulation is likely to lose definition over the next 12
to 18 hours, and by 24 hours Julia is forecast to dissipate as it
is absorbed within a broad surface trough/low associated with a
Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event.

Julia's appears to be moving between west and west-northwest at
about 13 kt. A west-northwestward motion around the southwestern
portion of a mid-level ridge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
should continue until dissipation occurs. The NHC track forecast is
again on the northern side of the model envelope, close to the GFS
and ECMWF model fields. After 24 hours, the model trackers latch
on to the vorticity associated with the broad circulation mentioned
above, and not Julia itself.


Key Messages:

1. Julia is forecast to move near the coasts of northwestern
Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador through Monday, where tropical
storm warnings are in effect. Tropical-force-winds are also
possible on Monday along the Pacific coast of Guatemala, where a
tropical storm watch is in effect.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across
portions of Central America into Monday. Flash flooding is
anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this
week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 12.8N 88.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 13.4N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: JULIA - Advisories

#29 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 10, 2022 4:10 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182022
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022

...JULIA MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES TO CONTINUE
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 89.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182022
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022

GOES-16 proxy-visible satellite data and surface observations from
the El Salvador International Airport suggest the center of Julia is
passing very near the coast of El Salvador this morning. A band of
deep convection has persisted over the southern and eastern portions
of the circulation, where tropical-storm-force winds are thought to
still be occurring. Unfortunately, overnight ASCAT data swaths
missed capturing Julia's wind field, and there have not been any
recent high-resolution passive microwave overpasses to assess the
structure of the cyclone. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for
this advisory, based on a T2.5/35 kt Dvorak intensity estimate from
TAFB.

The initial motion of Julia is west-northwestward at 290/13 kt, and
this general motion is expected to continue today as the cyclone is
steered by a ridge to the north. Weakening is expected as the center
moves near or over the coast of Central America, and Julia is
forecast to become a tropical depression later today and dissipate
by tonight. However, it is possible that the surface circulation
dissipates even sooner than forecast once it moves over the rugged
terrain of Central America. Regardless, heavy rainfall is likely to
continue over portions of Central America through today.

Although Julia is forecast to dissipate by tonight, residual
moisture and vorticity associated with its remnants could become
absorbed within a broader cyclonic envelope to the west, associated
with an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. For information
on the potential for new development offshore of southern Mexico
later this week, please see the latest eastern North Pacific
Tropical Weather Outlook.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue this morning over
portions of the coasts of Honduras and El Salvador within the
warning area. Tropical storm conditions are possible today along the
Pacific coast of Guatemala.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across
portions of Central America today. Flash flooding is anticipated
across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico through Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 13.4N 89.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 14.3N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: EPAC: JULIA - Advisories

#30 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 10, 2022 7:10 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182022
700 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022

...JULIA MOVING ALONG THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUES
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 89.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
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Re: EPAC: JULIA - Advisories

#31 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 10, 2022 9:47 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Julia Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182022
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022

...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES SHOULD CONTINUE FROM
JULIA ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 90.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM ENE OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES



Tropical Depression Julia Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182022
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022

Microwave and surface observations indicate the center of Julia went
inland just before 1200 UTC about 35 miles west of San Salvador.
Deep convection has weakened somewhat over the center since that
time, and the whole circulation is becoming stretched by the
mountainous terrain. The initial wind speed is lowered to 30 kt,
assuming some spin down of the winds from friction.

Julia should dissipate by this evening while it continues moving
west-northwestward over southern Guatemala. No significant changes
were made to the previous forecast. Regardless, heavy rainfall is
likely to continue over portions of Central America through today
and southern Mexico through tomorrow.

Some of the residual moisture and vorticity associated with Julia
could become absorbed within a broader cyclonic envelope to the
west, associated with an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event.
For information on the potential for new development offshore of
southern Mexico later this week, please see the latest eastern North
Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across
portions of Central America today. Flash flooding is anticipated
across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico through Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 14.1N 90.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 11/0000Z 15.2N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: JULIA - Advisories

#32 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 10, 2022 3:44 pm

Remnants Of Julia Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182022
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022

Surface observations and satellite imagery indicate that the
low-level circulation of Julia has opened up into a trough of low
pressure extending from offshore of Guatemala to extreme
southeastern Mexico. Thus it is no longer a tropical cyclone, and
this is the last advisory. The wind speed is set to 25 kt
based on earlier scatterometer data on the fringe of the
system. The main hazard with the remnants of Julia is heavy
rainfall, which is likely to continue over portions of Central
America today and southern Mexico through tomorrow.

The remnants of Julia could also contribute to a new tropical
cyclone development offshore of southern Mexico later this week, so
please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
for further details.


Key Messages:

1. The threat of flash flooding continues across the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec in Mexico through Tuesday. Across Central America, the
flash flooding risk is decreasing, but some areas of additional
flooding remain possible.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 15.0N 91.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF
12H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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