Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 06 2022
...DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 67.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF CURACAO
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ESE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Colombia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border westward
to Riohacha.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 hours.
Interests in San Andres, Providencia, and the coasts of Nicaragua
and Honduras should monitor the progress of the disturbance.
Additional watches or warnings could be required later today or on
Friday.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 11.4 North, longitude 67.0 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the
system is expected to move near the ABC Islands, the coast of
northwestern Venezuela, and the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia
through Friday morning. The system is then forecast to move across
the southwestern Caribbean Sea and approach the coast of Nicaragua
on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The system
could become a tropical depression by tonight, and is forecast to
become a tropical storm on Friday. The system is then expected to
become a hurricane by Sunday as it approaches the coast of
Nicaragua.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of
Colombia within the warning area by early Friday. Gusts to tropical
storm force are also possible across the ABC Islands and the
northwestern coast of Venezuela later today and tonight.
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen is expected to
produce the following rain accumulations through early Monday:
Northern Coastal Venezuela...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao...3 to 6 inches
Guajira Peninsula of Colombia...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches
Eastern Nicaragua...6 to 10 inches, isolated 16 inches.
Central Nicaragua...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.
SURF: Swells generated by disturbance will affect the ABC Islands
and portions of the coasts of northwestern Venezuela and the Guajira
Peninsula of Colombia through Friday. Swells could reach Jamaica,
Providencia, and San Andres on Saturday, and portions of the coast
of Central America on Sunday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Berg
Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 06 2022
A broad area of low pressure continues to move westward across the
far southeastern Caribbean Sea, with an expansive area of deep
convection stretching across northern South America and the
adjacent waters. The system does not appear to have a well-defined
center and therefore cannot yet be designated as a tropical
depression. However, the risk of tropical storm force winds has
increased for portions of the northern coast of South America, and
advisories are therefore being initiated on Potential Tropical
Cyclone Thirteen. The initial intensity is 30 kt based on ASCAT
data from last evening.
With the low remaining broad, the center is difficult to locate.
It's estimated to be over water just north of Venezuela based on
extrapolation, although it should be noted that stronger turning is
becoming evident in the cloud pattern a little farther south over
land. The track forecast reasoning is straightforward. Strong low-
to mid-level ridging over the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico is
expected to steer the disturbance westward along the northern coast
of South American and then across the southwestern Caribbean Sea
during the next 3 day or so, likely reaching the coast of Central
America sometime on Sunday. The track guidance is tightly clustered
during that period, with a little bit of speed differences, and the
official forecast track lies close to the TVCN and HCCA consensus
aids.
Land interaction will likely modulate the system's development over
the next 24 hours or so, both its designation as a tropical cyclone
and potential intensification. Intensity guidance is in fairly
good agreement that a well-defined center could form by tonight,
assuming the system is still over water, with winds potentially
increasing to tropical storm force by Friday morning. Once the
system clears land on Friday, low to moderate shear and warm waters
of 29 to 30 degrees Celsius should foster more significant
development, with the system forecast to become a hurricane before
it reaches the coast of Central America on Sunday. The NHC
intensity forecast is near a blend of the IVCN and HCCA consensus
aids, although it's important to note that some intensity models,
including HWRF and the ECMWF-based SHIPS, are as much as 15 kt
higher at 72 hours.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
Guajira Peninsula of Colombia tonight and early Friday, where a
Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. Gusts to tropical storm
force are possible across portions of northern Venezuela, Aruba,
Curacao, and Bonaire through early Friday.
2. The system is expected to strengthen when it moves over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea, and interests in San Andres,
Providencia, and portions of Central America should closely monitor
its progress. Watches could be required for portions of that area
later today or tonight.
3. Heavy rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in
portions of the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia, northern Venezuela,
Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao during the next day or so. Heavy
rains, and the potential for flash flooding and mudslides, are
expected to spread to portions of Central America this weekend.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1500Z 11.4N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 07/0000Z 11.8N 69.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H 07/1200Z 12.3N 71.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR GUAJIRA PENINSULA
36H 08/0000Z 12.9N 74.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 08/1200Z 13.0N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 12.9N 80.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 12.8N 82.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 13.8N 86.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 11/1200Z 15.6N 91.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Berg