EPAC: JULIA - Advisories

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EPAC: JULIA - Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 06, 2022 9:55 am

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 06 2022

...DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 67.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF CURACAO
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ESE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Colombia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border westward
to Riohacha.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 hours.

Interests in San Andres, Providencia, and the coasts of Nicaragua
and Honduras should monitor the progress of the disturbance.
Additional watches or warnings could be required later today or on
Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 11.4 North, longitude 67.0 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the
system is expected to move near the ABC Islands, the coast of
northwestern Venezuela, and the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia
through Friday morning. The system is then forecast to move across
the southwestern Caribbean Sea and approach the coast of Nicaragua
on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The system
could become a tropical depression by tonight, and is forecast to
become a tropical storm on Friday. The system is then expected to
become a hurricane by Sunday as it approaches the coast of
Nicaragua.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of
Colombia within the warning area by early Friday. Gusts to tropical
storm force are also possible across the ABC Islands and the
northwestern coast of Venezuela later today and tonight.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen is expected to
produce the following rain accumulations through early Monday:

Northern Coastal Venezuela...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao...3 to 6 inches
Guajira Peninsula of Colombia...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches
Eastern Nicaragua...6 to 10 inches, isolated 16 inches.
Central Nicaragua...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells generated by disturbance will affect the ABC Islands
and portions of the coasts of northwestern Venezuela and the Guajira
Peninsula of Colombia through Friday. Swells could reach Jamaica,
Providencia, and San Andres on Saturday, and portions of the coast
of Central America on Sunday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 06 2022

A broad area of low pressure continues to move westward across the
far southeastern Caribbean Sea, with an expansive area of deep
convection stretching across northern South America and the
adjacent waters. The system does not appear to have a well-defined
center and therefore cannot yet be designated as a tropical
depression. However, the risk of tropical storm force winds has
increased for portions of the northern coast of South America, and
advisories are therefore being initiated on Potential Tropical
Cyclone Thirteen. The initial intensity is 30 kt based on ASCAT
data from last evening.

With the low remaining broad, the center is difficult to locate.
It's estimated to be over water just north of Venezuela based on
extrapolation, although it should be noted that stronger turning is
becoming evident in the cloud pattern a little farther south over
land. The track forecast reasoning is straightforward. Strong low-
to mid-level ridging over the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico is
expected to steer the disturbance westward along the northern coast
of South American and then across the southwestern Caribbean Sea
during the next 3 day or so, likely reaching the coast of Central
America sometime on Sunday. The track guidance is tightly clustered
during that period, with a little bit of speed differences, and the
official forecast track lies close to the TVCN and HCCA consensus
aids.

Land interaction will likely modulate the system's development over
the next 24 hours or so, both its designation as a tropical cyclone
and potential intensification. Intensity guidance is in fairly
good agreement that a well-defined center could form by tonight,
assuming the system is still over water, with winds potentially
increasing to tropical storm force by Friday morning. Once the
system clears land on Friday, low to moderate shear and warm waters
of 29 to 30 degrees Celsius should foster more significant
development, with the system forecast to become a hurricane before
it reaches the coast of Central America on Sunday. The NHC
intensity forecast is near a blend of the IVCN and HCCA consensus
aids, although it's important to note that some intensity models,
including HWRF and the ECMWF-based SHIPS, are as much as 15 kt
higher at 72 hours.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
Guajira Peninsula of Colombia tonight and early Friday, where a
Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. Gusts to tropical storm
force are possible across portions of northern Venezuela, Aruba,
Curacao, and Bonaire through early Friday.

2. The system is expected to strengthen when it moves over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea, and interests in San Andres,
Providencia, and portions of Central America should closely monitor
its progress. Watches could be required for portions of that area
later today or tonight.

3. Heavy rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in
portions of the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia, northern Venezuela,
Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao during the next day or so. Heavy
rains, and the potential for flash flooding and mudslides, are
expected to spread to portions of Central America this weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 11.4N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 07/0000Z 11.8N 69.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H 07/1200Z 12.3N 71.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR GUAJIRA PENINSULA
36H 08/0000Z 12.9N 74.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 08/1200Z 13.0N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 12.9N 80.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 12.8N 82.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 13.8N 86.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 11/1200Z 15.6N 91.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Advisories

#2 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 06, 2022 12:51 pm

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
200 PM AST Thu Oct 06 2022

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR SAN ANDRES, PROVIDENCIA, AND SANTA
CATALINA ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA THROUGH FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 67.7W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF CURACAO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ESE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Colombia has issued a Hurricane Watch for San
Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of Colombia from Riohacha eastward to the Colombia/Venezuela
border

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 hours.

Interests along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor
the progress of the disturbance. Additional watches or warnings
could be required tonight or on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
11.5 North, longitude 67.7 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to
continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the system is
expected to move near the ABC Islands, the coast of northwestern
Venezuela, and the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia through Friday
morning. The system is then forecast to move across the
southwestern Caribbean Sea, moving near San Andres and Providencia
Islands Saturday night, and approaching the coast of Nicaragua on
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The
system could become a tropical depression by tonight, and is
forecast to become a tropical storm on Friday. The system is then
expected to become a hurricane by Sunday as it approaches the coast
of Nicaragua.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches)
based on observations from Bonaire.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on the Colombian islands of
San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Saturday night, with
tropical storm conditions possible by late Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of
Colombia within the warning area by early Friday. Gusts to tropical
storm force are also possible across the ABC Islands and the
northwestern coast of Venezuela today and tonight.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen is expected to
produce the following rain accumulations through early Monday:

Northern Coastal Venezuela...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao...3 to 6 inches
Guajira Peninsula of Colombia...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches
Eastern Nicaragua...6 to 10 inches, isolated 16 inches.
Central Nicaragua...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as
1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and Santa
Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by disturbance will affect the ABC Islands
and portions of the coasts of northwestern Venezuela and the Guajira
Peninsula of Colombia through Friday. Swells could reach Jamaica,
Providencia, and San Andres on Saturday, and portions of the coast
of Central America on Sunday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Advisories

#3 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 06, 2022 3:41 pm

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
500 PM AST Thu Oct 06 2022

...DISTURBANCE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA THROUGH FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 68.7W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SSE OF CURACAO
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ESE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES




Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
500 PM AST Thu Oct 06 2022

The disturbance is gradually becoming better organized, with some
convective banding attempting to form west of the center during the
past several hours. Radar imagery from Curacao also suggests there
could be a better-defined center trying to form just to the south
of Bonaire and Curacao, but there are not enough nearby surface
observations to confirm that. Therefore, the system is not yet
designated as a tropical depression. However, an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft scheduled for a survey mission
later this evening should hopefully give us a better sense of the
wind field and help provide evidence if the system has developed a
well-defined circulation.

The track forecast is straightforward. The disturbance is being
driven quickly westward with a motion of 270/15 kt by a strong low-
to mid-level ridge stretching across the western Atlantic and Gulf
of Mexico. This feature should maintain the system on a westward
heading for the next 3 days across the southwestern Caribbean Sea,
with some slowing of the forward motion as it moves away from the
main high center over the western Atlantic. A slight turn toward
the west-northwest across Central America is forecast by day 4 once
the system, or its remnants, reaches the western periphery of the
ridge. The track models remain tightly clustered, and the new NHC
forecast is near the previous prediction and the TVCN/HCCA
consensus aids.

The system is likely to form a well-defined center and become a
tropical cyclone within the next 6-12 hours, which is generally
shown by the various global models. They, along with
statistical-dynamical guidance, indicate the system should also
begin to gradually strengthen while passing near the Guajira
Peninsula of Colombia. Once the system reaches the southwestern
Caribbean Sea, low to moderate shear and warm sea surface
temperatures of 29 to 30 degrees Celsius should foster faster
strengthening, and a consensus of the various SHIPS Rapid
Intensification (RI) indices indicates a 65-75 percent chance of a
65-kt increase over the next 3 days. The NHC intensity is not yet
that aggressive, but the peak intensity now shown in the official
forecast is raised a bit higher to 75 kt at 60 and 72 hours. It's
possible that the intensity could get a little higher between those
times before the system reaches land. Based on the forecast track,
the system is unlikely to survive a trek across the terrain of
Central America, and dissipation is therefore shown by day 5.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
Guajira Peninsula of Colombia tonight and early Friday, where a
Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. Gusts to tropical storm
force are possible across portions of northern Venezuela, Aruba,
Curacao, and Bonaire through early Friday.

2. The system is expected to strengthen when it moves over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for
San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. Interests in
Nicaragua and Honduras should also monitor the system's
progress, and additional watches or warnings could be required for
portions of these areas tonight or on Friday

3. Heavy rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding over
portions of the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia, northern Venezuela,
and the island chain of Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao during the next
day or two. Heavy rains and the potential for flash flooding and
mudslides are expected to spread to portions of Central America this
weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 11.6N 68.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 07/0600Z 12.0N 70.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H 07/1800Z 12.6N 73.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 13.0N 76.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 13.0N 79.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 13.1N 81.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 13.3N 84.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
96H 10/1800Z 14.8N 89.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Advisories

#4 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 06, 2022 6:39 pm

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
800 PM AST Thu Oct 06 2022

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
SURVEYING THE DISTURBANCE...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA THROUGH FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 69.1W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SSW OF CURACAO
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Advisories

#5 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 06, 2022 9:38 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 06 2022

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS
AND THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA THROUGH FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 69.8W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM WSW OF CURACAO
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ESE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES



Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 06 2022

Earlier satellite imagery and radar data from Curacao indicated
that the disturbance was developing a better-defined center between
the ABC Islands and the coast of Venezuela. Since that time, a
large convective burst has formed near and just south of the
center, and there has been an increase in banding in the Curacao
radar data. Based on these developments, the disturbance now has
sufficient circulation and organized convection to be designated a
tropical depression. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft surveying the system showed 25-30 kt winds north of
the center, so the initial intensity is set at 30 kt.

The track forecast remains straightforward. The depression is
moving westward or 280/13 kt due to a strong low- to mid-level
ridge stretching across the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico.
This feature should maintain the system on a general westward
heading for the next 72 h across the southwestern Caribbean Sea,
with some slowing of the forward motion expected by 60-72 h as the
cyclone moves over Nicaragua and nears the western end of the ridge.
A subsequent turn toward the west-northwest across Central America
is forecast by 96 h. The new track forecast is basically an update
of the previous forecast and lies very close to the tightly
clustered consensus models.

While the system has developed a better-defined circulation, the
strongest winds are currently well to the north of the center.
Given this and an environment of light northerly shear, the
intensity forecast shows gradual strengthening for the next 12 h,
with the cyclone becoming a tropical storm as it passes near the
Guajira Peninsula of Colombia. After that, a faster rate of
development is expected as the cyclone's structure improves and the
shear gradually decreases. The new intensity forecast calls for
the system to become a hurricane by 48 h and to reach a peak
intensity of 75 kt just before landfall in Nicaragua. This could
be conservative, as the rapid intensification indices of the SHIPS
model show a significant chance of rapid intensification after 48
h. As mentioned in the last advisory, after landfall the system is
unlikely to survive the forecasted trek across the terrain of
Central America, and dissipation is therefore shown by 120 h.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
Guajira Peninsula of Colombia later tonight and Friday morning,
where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. Gusts to tropical
storm force are possible across portions of northern Venezuela,
Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire through early Friday.

2. The system is expected to strengthen when it moves over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for
San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. Interests in
Nicaragua and Honduras should also monitor the system's progress,
and additional watches or warnings are likely to be required for
portions of these areas on Friday.

3. Heavy rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding over
portions of the Guajira Peninsula, northern Venezuela, and the
island chain of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao during the next day or
two. The potential for flash flooding and mudslides is expected to
spread to portions of Central America this weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 11.9N 69.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 12.4N 72.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 13.0N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 13.2N 78.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 13.2N 80.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 13.3N 83.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 13.9N 85.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/0000Z 15.5N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Advisories

#6 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 07, 2022 3:56 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
500 AM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF
COLOMBIA THIS MORNING...
...HEAVY RAINS TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 71.1W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES




Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
500 AM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022

The structure of the depression has not changed much this morning.
Based on surface observations and radar data from Curacao, it
appears the center of the system has passed south of Aruba and moved
over the far northern Gulf of Venezuela. The deepest convection is
still confined to the southern and western portions of the
circulation. There has been a slight increase in convection well to
the north of the center during the past several hours, but it lacks
organization at this time. Unfortunately, the center of the
depression was not sampled by overnight ASCAT data swaths. Recent
subjective satellite estimates from SAB and TAFB range from 30-35
kt, and the initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system this morning.

The depression is still moving westward at 280/13 kt. A low- to
mid-level ridge entrenched over the western Atlantic and the Gulf of
Mexico will remain the primary steering mechanism for the next few
days. This ridge should keep the cyclone on a westward heading as it
crosses the southwestern Caribbean Sea and approaches the coast of
Nicaragua later this weekend. The steering flow is consistent among
the global models, and the track model guidance remains tightly
clustered through landfall. Then, the system is forecast to reach
the western extent of the ridge and gradually turn toward the
west-northwest at 72-96 h as it moves across Central America. Due to
the consistency in the track guidance, the latest NHC forecast is
essentially an update of the previous one.

Given the cyclone's proximity to land, only gradual strengthening is
forecast in the near term as the cyclone passes near or over the
Guajira Peninsula. Still, the depression is expected to become a
tropical storm later today. Once the system moves away from land and
reaches the warm waters of the southwestern Caribbean Sea, the
atmospheric and oceanic conditions should support a faster rate of
intensification. Generally weak to moderate deep-layer shear is
forecast as the cyclone moves within a moist and unstable
environment, and the multi-model intensity guidance consensus
supports the cyclone becoming a hurricane by 48 h. In fact,
conditions should remain generally favorable for intensification
through landfall, and the official NHC forecast lies on the higher
end of the models near the HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA). After
moving inland, the system is expected to weaken over the terrain of
Central America and dissipate early next week.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
Guajira Peninsula of Colombia this morning. Gusts to tropical storm
force are possible across Aruba and portions of northern Venezuela
during the next several hours.

2. The system is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane when it
moves over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. A Hurricane Watch is in
effect for San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands.
Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the system's
progress, as additional watches or warnings are likely to be
required for portions of these areas later today.

3. Heavy rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding over
portions of the Guajira Peninsula, northern Venezuela, and the
island chain of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao during the next day or
two. The potential for flash flooding and mudslides is expected to
spread to portions of Central America this weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 12.1N 71.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 12.7N 73.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 13.1N 76.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 13.2N 79.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 13.2N 82.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 13.5N 84.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
72H 10/0600Z 14.1N 86.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/0600Z 16.0N 91.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Advisories

#7 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 07, 2022 9:56 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022

...TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORMS OFF THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA...
...HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NICARAGUA AND THE
OFFSHORE COLOMBIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 73.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM W OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Colombia has upgraded the Hurricane Watch to a
Hurricane Warning for San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina
Islands.

The government of Nicaragua has issued a Hurricane Watch from
Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Honduras border.

The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from
the Nicaragua/Honduras border westward to Punta Patuca.



Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022

Earlier this morning, a concentrated burst of deep convection with
a high density of lightning developed near the center of the
cyclone while it was over the Guajira Peninsula, and microwave
imagery shows that convective banding has increased somewhat over
the adjacent waters. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
currently investigating the system so far has found maximum 925-mb
flight-level winds of 47 kt and SFMR surface winds of 34 kt, and on
that basis, the depression is upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm.

Based on the latest aircraft fix, Julia is moving a bit faster
toward the west than expected with an initial motion of 280/16 kt.
A strong east-northeast to west-southwest oriented ridge which
stretches into the southern Gulf of Mexico should keep Julia on a
quick westward path during the next 48 hours. Since the track
guidance has sped up a bit over the past few forecast cycles, the
official forecast now brings Julia to the coast of Nicaragua by
Sunday morning, which is a little sooner than was previously
forecast. After landfall, the track guidance currently indicates
that Julia and its remnants should remain over Central America and
southern Mexico through Tuesday.

Stiff north-northwesterly shear (15-20 kt) is affecting Julia, and
that can be seen in the suppression of the northern edge of the
recent convective burst. Shear diagnostics suggest that this shear
should abate soon, and Julia should commence a steady strengthening
trend during the next two days while it crosses the southwestern
Caribbean Sea. Julia is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday
evening, and the forecast peak intensity at the time of landfall in
Nicaragua is unchanged from the previous advisory. The official
forecast at that time is a bit above HCCA and the IVCN consensus
aids, but it's still below SHIPS and LGEM guidance. The NHC
forecast shows 72- and 96-hour remnant low points to indicate the
expected track over Central America, but it is highly likely that
the center will have dissipated by those times.


Key Messages:

1. Julia is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by Saturday
evening while it moves over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, and a
Hurricane Warning is now in effect for San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands. A Hurricane Watch is also now in effect for
much of the Nicaragua coast. Hurricane-force winds and a dangerous
storm surge are expected in areas where the core of the system
crosses the islands and moves onshore.

2. The risk of flash flooding continues today over portions of the
Guajira Peninsula. The potential for life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides is expected to spread to portions of Central America
this weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 12.7N 73.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 13.0N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 13.2N 78.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 13.1N 81.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 13.1N 83.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
60H 10/0000Z 13.6N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 10/1200Z 14.5N 88.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 11/1200Z 16.2N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Advisories

#8 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 07, 2022 12:44 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022

...JULIA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 73.9W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NNE OF BARRANQUILLA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Advisories

#9 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 07, 2022 3:40 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
500 PM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NICARAGUA COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 74.7W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM N OF BARRANQUILLA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Nicaragua has upgraded the Hurricane Watch to a
Hurricane Warning from Laguna de Perlas to Puerto Cabezas. A
Tropical Storm Warning has been issued north of Puerto Cabezas to
the Honduras/Nicaragua border and south of Laguna de Perlas to
Bluefields.


Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
500 PM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022

Julia's low-level center has been exposed for much of the day,
after the burst of deep convection from this morning was stripped
away by northerly shear. Convective cells have been regenerating
in the proximity of the center, but much of the activity still
lacks organization due to the shear. This morning's Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance mission measured a peak 925-mb flight-level
wind of 50 kt, which reduces to an intensity between 35 and 40 kt.
Given that the pressure did not drop, and the convection has not
increased in organization, the initial intensity remains 35 kt.

Julia has gained some latitude today, but overall it's moving
quickly toward the west, or 280/16 kt, to the south of strong
mid-level ridging. The storm has been moving a little faster than
was forecast during the past day or so, and global model guidance
suggests that the current speeds should be maintained for the next
12-24 hours. Some deceleration is expected as Julia approaches the
coast of Nicaragua, but because the storm has been moving faster
than expected, it's now forecast to reach the coast of Nicaragua
early Sunday morning. The updated NHC prediction lies very near or
along this morning's forecast, but it's just a little faster to
account for recent models trends.

Shear guidance from SHIPS and the GFS insists that the
north-northwesterly shear affecting Julia should abate soon, or at
least take on a more easterly component during the next day or so,
which should favor more intensification. Ocean waters will also be
plenty warm, and upper-level divergence over the system may
increase as well. The NHC intensity forecast most closely follows
a blend of the SHIPS guidance and the HCCA consensus aid, showing
Julia reaching hurricane strength by 36 hours, about the time it
passes the Colombian islands offshore of Nicaragua. Even though 65
kt is the peak intensity shown in the forecast, additional
strengthening beyond that value is possible before Julia reaches
the coast of Nicaragua.

Julia is now expected to dissipate over Central America by Monday
(72 hours). Various model solutions depict Julia's leftover
vorticity moving over the eastern Pacific waters, over the Bay of
Campeche, or both after that time, but it is unclear at this time
if that will lead to genesis of a new tropical cyclone. We'll
continue to monitor model trends and update the forecast as needed.
Regardless of new development, the set up is likely to lead to
heavy rains over Central America for several days, which could
cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in
areas of mountainous terrain.


Key Messages:

1. Julia is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by Saturday
evening or Saturday night while it moves over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for portions of
the Nicaragua coast and the offshore Colombian islands.
Hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge are expected in
areas where the core of the system crosses the islands and moves
onshore in Nicaragua.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across
portions of Central America this weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 13.0N 74.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 13.1N 77.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 13.0N 80.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 13.0N 82.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 13.2N 85.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 10/0600Z 13.5N 87.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 10/1800Z 14.3N 89.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Advisories

#10 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 07, 2022 6:49 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
800 PM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT THAT JULIA
HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 75.2W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NNW OF BARRANQUILLA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 415 MI...680 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Advisories

#11 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 07, 2022 9:44 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
1100 PM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022

...JULIA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES QUICKLY WESTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 76.1W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM NW OF BARRANQUILLA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES




Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
1100 PM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022

Satellite imagery indicates Julia has become somewhat better
organized during the past several hours, with the development of a
central convective burst with cloud top temperatures colder than
-80C and several outer bands appearing. Reports from NOAA and Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show this has resulted in
some strengthening, with the maximum sustained winds near 40 kt and
the minimum pressure near 999 mb. However, the aircraft data show
that Julia is still disorganized. The 850-mb circulation is weak
in the southwestern quadrant, and the 700-mb center is notably
south of the 850-mb and surface centers.

The surface center is a little to the south of the previous advisory
position, possibly due to reformation caused by the convective
burst. The initial motion is westward or 270/15 kt. The guidance
suggests that a quick westward motion should persist for the next
24-36 h or so as the storm is steered by a strong low- to mid-level
ridge to the north. This motion should bring the center near San
Andres and Providencia Islands in about 24 h and to the coast of
Nicaragua in about 36 h. A slower westward motion is expected after
landfall, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest starting at
about 48 h. This motion should continue until the system
dissipates. The new official track forecast is a little to the
south of the previous forecast based mainly on the current initial
position, and it lies near the various consensus models.

The vertical wind shear over Julia is decreasing, and the
environment is becoming favorable for steady to rapid
intensification once the cyclone becomes organized enough to take
advantage of it. Based on the trend of the intensity guidance and
the SHIPS rapid intensification indices, the new intensity forecast
calls for Julia to be near hurricane strength when it passes near
San Andres and Providencia, and for it to reach a peak intensity of
70 kt at landfall in Nicaragua. After landfall, the cyclone is
expected to rapidly weaken over the rugged terrain of Central
America, with the surface center dissipating between 72-96 h.

Although Julia is expected to dissipate over Central America by
Monday night, various model solutions depict Julia's leftover
vorticity moving over the eastern Pacific waters, over the Bay of
Campeche, or both after that time. However, it is still unclear at
this time if that will lead to genesis of a new tropical cyclone.
We'll continue to monitor model trends and update the forecast as
needed. Regardless of new development, the set up is likely to lead
to heavy rains over Central America for several days, which could
cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in
areas of mountainous terrain.


Key Messages:

1. Julia is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by Saturday
evening or Saturday night while it moves over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for portions of
the Nicaragua coast and the offshore Colombian islands.
Hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge are expected in
areas where the core of the system crosses the islands and moves
onshore in Nicaragua.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across
portions of Central America this weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 12.8N 76.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 12.8N 78.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 12.7N 81.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 12.8N 83.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
48H 10/0000Z 13.1N 86.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 10/1200Z 13.6N 88.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 11/0000Z 14.4N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Advisories

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 08, 2022 3:58 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
500 AM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

...JULIA EXPECTED TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 78.0W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ESE OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
500 AM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

Julia is a strengthening tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery has
shown an increase in persistent and deep convection occurring over
the center, with an expanding area of cloud top temperatures colder
than -80 deg C. Overnight data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
indicated the vertical structure of Julia is still organizing, with
evidence of multiple low-level centers noted in the 850-mb flight
level wind data. But, the aircraft reported flight-level winds of
59 kt and believable SFMR retrievals of 45-50 kt on its last pass
through the northeastern quadrant of the cyclone. Based on these
data, the initial intensity is set at 50 kt for this advisory.

Weak deep-layer shear, abundant mid-level moisture, and SSTs around
29.5 degrees Celsius appear conducive for steady to rapid
intensification of Julia during the next 24 h as it approaches
Central America. In fact, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index
shows a 63 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in intensity during
the next 24 h. Given the strengthening noted tonight and the
improved satellite structure, the NHC forecast calls for Julia to
rapidly intensify into a hurricane later today and continue
strengthening through landfall on Sunday. This forecast lies
between the multi-model consensus aids and the stronger SHIPS and
LGEM guidance. After landfall, the cyclone is forecast to weaken as
it moves across the terrain of Central America.

The estimated initial motion is westward at 265/16 kt. Julia is
expected to continue moving quickly westward for the next day
or so along the southern periphery of a strong mid-level ridge to
its north. This motion should bring the center of Julia near San
Andres and Providencia Islands this evening and over the coast of
Nicaragua within the warning area early Sunday. Based on a
southward shift in the track guidance, the NHC forecast has been
adjusted in that direction to bring it closer to the multi-model
consensus. As a result, the government of Nicaragua has extended
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings southward along the coast.

There is still above average uncertainty regarding the future of
Julia after landfall. While some models (HWRF, HMON, GFS) show the
center largely remaining over land and dissipating, others (ECMWF
and UKMET) show low-level vorticity associated with Julia or its
remnants emerging over the eastern Pacific waters early next week.
While it appears unlikely that the surface circulation would survive
the topography of Nicaragua, this scenario could become more likely
if there are additional southward adjustments to the track. For now,
the NHC forecast shows weakening and dissipation by 72 h near the
coast of Central America, but interests along the Pacific coasts of
El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua should monitor forecast
updates. Regardless, the set up is likely to lead to heavy rains
over Central America for several days, which could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of
mountainous terrain.


Key Messages:

1. Julia is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane later today, and
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for portions of the Nicaragua coast
and the islands of Providencia and San Andres. Hurricane-force winds
and a dangerous storm surge are expected in areas where the core of
the system crosses the islands tonight and moves onshore in
Nicaragua on Sunday.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across
portions of Central America this weekend. Flash flooding is possible
across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 12.7N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 12.6N 80.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 12.5N 82.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 12.7N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 10/0600Z 13.2N 87.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
60H 10/1800Z 13.8N 89.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Advisories

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 08, 2022 6:54 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING JULIA...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 79.0W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM ESE OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Advisories

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 08, 2022 9:50 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

...JULIA A LITTLE STRONGER AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
LATER TODAY...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 79.9W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ESE OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

Air Force Reserve reconnaissance data indicate that Julia is not a
vertically stacked tropical cyclone. The plane first made an
initial center fix to the north of the main area of deep convection
and found that the central pressure had fallen to 994 mb. About an
hour later, a second center fix was made three tenths of a degree
farther south near the deep convection, although the lowest
pressure there was only about 998 mb. The center has been placed
in between the two fixes, hedging toward the lower pressure to the
north. Julia's initial intensity is set at 55 kt based on the
lowering of the central pressure and unanimous satellite
classifications of T3.5. So far, the aircraft has measured peak
850-mb flight-level winds of 50 kt and reliable SFMR winds around
45 kt, so it's assumed the plane has not directly sampled the area
of highest winds.

Despite the uncertainty in Julia's initial position, it's clear
that the storm continues to move quickly westward with an estimated
motion of 270/18 kt. With strong ridging to the north, a continued
fast westward trajectory is expected during the next couple of
days, which should bring Julia's center inland over Nicaragua by
early Sunday morning. If Julia's center survives the passage over
Central America, it could move just offshore of or along the
Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador Sunday night
and Monday.

It still appears that there is about 15 kt of northwesterly or
northerly shear affecting Julia, but model guidance indicates this
should abate and then turn out of the east-northeast later today and
tonight. Therefore, further strengthening is anticipated, and Julia
is forecast to become a hurricane later today. It's important to
keep in mind that Julia could have a higher intensity when it
reaches the coast of Nicaragua than what is explicitly shown, since
in this forecast landfall would occur between the 12- and 24-hour
forecast times. In fact, SHIPS guidance suggests the intensity
could be in the 75-80 kt range at 18 hours, which mirrors what was
shown in the previous NHC forecast.

Due to Julia's more southern and faster track, there is increasing
global model support that the cyclone will be able to maintain a
well-defined center and circulation while it crosses Central
America, and it could also still be at tropical storm intensity
when it reaches the Pacific side of Central America. However, even
if it survives the crossing, most of the guidance shows the
circulation becoming more diffuse or dissipating over the Pacific
waters in 2 to 3 days. Based on the updated NHC forecast, and to
account for the possibility of tropical-storm-force winds along the
Pacific coast of Central America, tropical storm warnings and
watches have been issued for the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua,
Honduras, and El Salvador. Regardless of Julia's track and
existence as a tropical cyclone, the evolving set up is likely to
lead to heavy rains over Central America for several days, which
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially
in areas of mountainous terrain.


Key Messages:

1. Julia is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane later today, and
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for portions of the Nicaragua coast
and the islands of Providencia and San Andres. Hurricane-force winds
and a dangerous storm surge are expected in areas where the core of
the system crosses the islands later today and moves onshore in
Nicaragua early Sunday morning.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across
portions of Central America this weekend. Flash flooding is
possible across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next
week.

3. There is an increasing chance that Julia could remain as a
tropical storm while it moves across Central America, and tropical
storm warnings and watches have been issued along the Pacific
coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador to account for the
possibility of tropical-storm-force winds in those areas late
Sunday and Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 12.6N 79.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 12.5N 81.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 12.5N 84.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
36H 10/0000Z 12.7N 86.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 10/1200Z 13.2N 89.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 11/0000Z 13.7N 91.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Advisories

#15 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 08, 2022 12:49 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

...JULIA HEADING TOWARD NICARAGUA IN A HURRY...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 80.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM E OF ISLA DE SAN ANDRES COLOMBIA
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Advisories

#16 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 08, 2022 3:41 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE COAST OF NICARAGUA
OVERNIGHT...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 81.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ENE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

Satellite images and radar data from San Andres Island show that
convection is starting to fill in to the north of Julia's center,
with a burst now rotating around the east side of and over the
core. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are now T3.5/55 kt and
T4.0/65 kt, respectively, and the UW-CIMSS ADT is between 60 and 65
kt. Based on these data, Julia's intensity is raised to 60 kt.
Both NOAA and the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters are scheduled
to conduct missions in Julia this evening.

Julia may have slowed down just a little bit, and the initial
motion estimate is westward, or 270/15 kt. Strong ridging over
Florida and the Gulf of Mexico should keep Julia on a relatively
quick westward trajectory during the next couple of days, reaching
the coast of Nicaragua overnight and then moving across the country
on Sunday. Track model guidance has continued to shift southward,
and there's now nearly unanimous consensus that Julia's center will
remain intact and emerge off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua Sunday
evening. Julia, or its remnants, are then expected to move
westward, generally parallel to the coasts of El Salvador and
Guatemala Sunday night and Monday. The new NHC track forecast is
very similar to the previous prediction, except just a touch south
while over the Pacific waters.

Environmental conditions favor strengthening this evening and
tonight before Julia reaches the coast of Nicaragua, especially if
the recent burst of deep convection can remain near or over the
center. As such, Julia is still forecast to become a hurricane
within the next 12 hours. After landfall, fast weakening is
expected, but Julia is forecast to be at or near tropical storm
strength when it emerges off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua due to
its fast transit across the country. Even if it does survive, the
global models generally show the circulation dissipating or
becoming absorbed by a broader area of low pressure associated with
a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event, and that should occur by
Monday night.

Regardless of Julia's track and existence as a tropical cyclone, the
evolving set up is likely to lead to heavy rains over Central
America for several days, which could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.


Key Messages:

1. Julia is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane this evening
or tonight before reaching the coast of Nicaragua. A Hurricane
Warning remains in effect for portions of the Nicaragua coast and
the islands of Providencia and San Andres. Hurricane-force winds
and a dangerous storm surge are expected in areas where the core of
the system crosses the islands this evening and moves onshore in
Nicaragua tonight.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across
portions of Central America this weekend. Flash flooding is
possible across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next
week.

3. Julia is forecast to remain as a tropical storm while it moves
across Central America to the adjacent Pacific waters, and tropical
storm warnings are in effect along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua,
Honduras, and El Salvador to account for the possibility of
tropical-storm-force winds in those areas late Sunday and Sunday
night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 12.6N 81.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 12.5N 83.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 12.6N 86.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 10/0600Z 12.8N 88.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 10/1800Z 13.3N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Advisories

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 08, 2022 5:18 pm

182
URNT15 KWBC 082212
NOAA2 0913A JULIA HDOB 14 20221008
220300 1245N 08045W 6950 03116 9979 +104 +035 148045 048 046 005 00
220330 1245N 08048W 6949 03114 9973 +104 +039 152048 049 044 002 00
220400 1245N 08050W 6950 03113 9969 +106 +043 152049 050 044 002 00
220430 1246N 08052W 6943 03122 9966 +107 +048 151049 050 043 003 00
220500 1246N 08055W 6944 03118 9964 +106 +051 152044 047 043 001 00
220530 1247N 08057W 6954 03103 9959 +107 +055 149040 044 047 001 00
220600 1247N 08059W 6956 03100 9958 +107 +057 149037 039 048 003 00
220630 1248N 08101W 6955 03099 9956 +106 +058 147035 037 048 003 00
220700 1248N 08104W 6955 03095 9951 +107 +059 148032 033 048 001 00
220730 1249N 08106W 6955 03093 9946 +110 +060 141033 033 048 000 00
220800 1249N 08108W 6955 03092 9942 +112 +061 131034 036 046 001 00
220830 1250N 08111W 6957 03087 9935 +117 +062 125039 040 047 002 00
220900 1250N 08113W 6950 03092 9930 +118 +063 127040 041 046 002 00
220930 1251N 08115W 6958 03084 9928 +119 +065 119040 044 045 001 00
221000 1251N 08118W 6948 03092 9924 +120 +066 115042 046 046 000 00
221030 1252N 08120W 6954 03084 9921 +121 +067 111047 047 046 000 00
221100 1253N 08123W 6953 03084 9916 +124 +069 107046 046 047 002 00
221130 1253N 08125W 6947 03091 9914 +125 +070 104046 047 048 002 00
221200 1254N 08127W 6949 03088 9918 +121 +071 101048 051 048 004 00
221230 1254N 08130W 6972 03062 9915 +123 +072 099048 051 053 003 00
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Advisories

#18 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 08, 2022 5:19 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Advisories

#19 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 08, 2022 6:18 pm

Hurricane Julia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
700 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

...JULIA BECOMES A HURRICANE...

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Julia has become a hurricane with 75 mph (120 km/h)
maximum sustained winds as it passes near San Andres and
Providencia Islands.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 81.7W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM S OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND COLOMBIA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Advisories

#20 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:00 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

...CENTER OF JULIA PASSING SAN ANDRES AND HEADING FOR THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 82.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND COLOMBIA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ENE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES
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