WPAC: NESAT - Post Tropical

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#21 Postby underthwx » Fri Oct 14, 2022 9:06 am

Hayabusa wrote:
WTPQ52 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 19.9N 128.6E POOR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 151200UTC 19.0N 124.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 161200UTC 19.9N 120.6E 130NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 171200UTC 19.6N 118.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 181200UTC 18.0N 116.1E 280NM 70%
MOVE SW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
120HF 191200UTC 16.7N 113.2E 390NM 70%
MOVE WSW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

What's up Hayabusa, looks like the Northern Philippines gets into the path of whatever develops?
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#22 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 14, 2022 9:19 am

underthwx wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:
WTPQ52 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 19.9N 128.6E POOR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 151200UTC 19.0N 124.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 161200UTC 19.9N 120.6E 130NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 171200UTC 19.6N 118.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 181200UTC 18.0N 116.1E 280NM 70%
MOVE SW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
120HF 191200UTC 16.7N 113.2E 390NM 70%
MOVE WSW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

What's up Hayabusa, looks like the Northern Philippines gets into the path of whatever develops?


I'm not Hayabusa, but it looks like that 97W will clip Northern Luzon, then dip SW towards Vietnam.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#23 Postby underthwx » Fri Oct 14, 2022 9:47 am

Iceresistance wrote:
underthwx wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:
WTPQ52 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 19.9N 128.6E POOR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 151200UTC 19.0N 124.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 161200UTC 19.9N 120.6E 130NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 171200UTC 19.6N 118.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 181200UTC 18.0N 116.1E 280NM 70%
MOVE SW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
120HF 191200UTC 16.7N 113.2E 390NM 70%
MOVE WSW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

What's up Hayabusa, looks like the Northern Philippines gets into the path of whatever develops?


I'm not Hayabusa, but it looks like that 97W will clip Northern Luzon, then dip SW towards Vietnam.

Thanks Ice! And good morning!
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#24 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Oct 14, 2022 2:46 pm

underthwx wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:
WTPQ52 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 19.9N 128.6E POOR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 151200UTC 19.0N 124.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 161200UTC 19.9N 120.6E 130NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 171200UTC 19.6N 118.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 181200UTC 18.0N 116.1E 280NM 70%
MOVE SW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
120HF 191200UTC 16.7N 113.2E 390NM 70%
MOVE WSW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

What's up Hayabusa, looks like the Northern Philippines gets into the path of whatever develops?

It is possible but models keep it away from the main island of Luzon, Batanes islands is on the direct path currently :D
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: 23W - Tropical Depression

#25 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Oct 14, 2022 2:53 pm

Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: 23W - Tropical Depression

#26 Postby Ed_2001 » Fri Oct 14, 2022 5:17 pm

Krosa '13 seems like a pretty good analog. Both small sized systems poised to achieve decent strength in northern SCS before being forced southward and weaken due to cold front to the north. Krosa was 2 weeks deeper into the fall though.
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Re: WPAC: 23W - Tropical Depression

#27 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 14, 2022 8:43 pm

90 knot peak on the first JTWC warning.
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Re: WPAC: 23W - Tropical Depression

#28 Postby doomhaMwx » Fri Oct 14, 2022 9:21 pm

This thing is still sheared and there appear to be multiple LLCCs in there.

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Re: WPAC: NESAT - Tropical Storm

#29 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Oct 15, 2022 4:13 am

T2220(Nesat)
Issued at 2022/10/15 07:05 UTC

Analysis at 10/15 06 UTC
Grade TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N19°05′ (19.1°)
E124°10′ (124.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area NW330 km (180 NM)
SE220 km (120 NM)
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: NESAT - Tropical Storm

#30 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Oct 15, 2022 9:58 am

23W NESAT 221015 1200 19.0N 123.2E WPAC 40 999

T2220(Nesat)
Issued at 2022/10/15 12:45 UTC

Analysis at 10/15 12 UTC
Grade TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N19°00′ (19.0°)
E123°10′ (123.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area NW330 km (180 NM)
SE220 km (120 NM)


Latest ASCAT pass confirms 40kts.

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Re: WPAC: NESAT - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Oct 15, 2022 11:19 am

Basco 1600Z synop reporting 42 knots gusting 77 knots, mslp=993.9mb
98134 41456 80222 10250 20/// 39753 49939 5//// 76066 8552/ 333 56199 85617 88456= QNT=40MPS 10/15/22 jg*05
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: NESAT - Tropical Storm

#32 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Oct 15, 2022 2:19 pm

Nesat is about to pass through the Babuyan Islands. Nearby surface pressure obs have been consistently lower than agency estimates, indicating that Nesat is intensifying (also evident on radar trends). Calayan Island is down to ~986mb as of 19Z.

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Re: WPAC: NESAT - Tropical Storm

#33 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Oct 15, 2022 2:40 pm

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:Nesat is about to pass through the Babuyan Islands. Nearby surface pressure obs have been consistently lower than agency estimates, indicating that Nesat is intensifying (also evident on radar trends). Calayan Island is down to ~986mb as of 19Z.

https://i.imgur.com/zR4bLNg.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/4rlWGAM.jpg

It's 984.5 mb to be exact based on their 1900Z synop, though their recorded winds are unimpressive, Basco still has the highest winds
98133 41440 83610 10/// 20/// 39830 49845 5//// 76166 8552/ 333 56899 85618 88458= QNT 22mps ET*10
98134 41460 80921 10252 20/// 39749 49935 5//// 71522 8527/ 333 56299 85818 88357= QNT=31MPS 10/15/22 jg*04
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: NESAT - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Oct 15, 2022 2:51 pm

Hayabusa wrote:
Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:Nesat is about to pass through the Babuyan Islands. Nearby surface pressure obs have been consistently lower than agency estimates, indicating that Nesat is intensifying (also evident on radar trends). Calayan Island is down to ~986mb as of 19Z.

https://i.imgur.com/zR4bLNg.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/4rlWGAM.jpg

It's 984.5 mb to be exact based on their 1900Z synop, though their recorded winds are unimpressive, Basco still has the highest winds
98133 41440 83610 10/// 20/// 39830 49845 5//// 76166 8552/ 333 56899 85618 88458= QNT 22mps ET*10
98134 41460 80921 10252 20/// 39749 49935 5//// 71522 8527/ 333 56299 85818 88357= QNT=31MPS 10/15/22 jg*04

The synoptic station in Basco has an elevation of 167 meters and is more exposed, thus, it will tend to measure higher winds.
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Re: WPAC: NESAT - Tropical Storm

#35 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 15, 2022 3:04 pm

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Re: WPAC: NESAT - Tropical Storm

#36 Postby underthwx » Sat Oct 15, 2022 3:36 pm

What effects on Batanes will the cyclone have?
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Re: WPAC: NESAT - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 15, 2022 5:17 pm

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Re: WPAC: NESAT - Severe Tropical Storm

#38 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Oct 15, 2022 5:41 pm

T2220(Nesat)
Issued at 2022/10/15 21:35 UTC

Analysis at 10/15 21 UTC
Grade STS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N19°20′ (19.3°)
E121°50′ (121.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area N440 km (240 NM)
S280 km (150 NM)

 https://twitter.com/dost_pagasa/status/1581394731002580999


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Re: WPAC: NESAT - Severe Tropical Storm

#39 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Oct 15, 2022 10:39 pm

24-hr rainfall totals until 8am PhT (00Z) today. Aparri and Calayan (Cagayan) recorded 324mm and 229mm respectively.

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Re: WPAC: NESAT - Typhoon

#40 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Oct 16, 2022 4:50 pm

JTWC has this as a Typhoon
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!


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