WPAC: NESAT - Post Tropical

[Hayabusa]

97W.INVEST

97W INVEST 221007 1800 13.0N 146.5E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

18Z EPS

[Hayabusa]

06Z EPS

[Hayabusa]

Significant differences from the Euro and GFS, Euro develops 97W as the dominant one, but GFS makes another circulation way east of it around 152E and makes that the dominant one.
GFS

Euro

[underthwx]

Is the activity we are seeing, a result of a more active monsoon?

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 100600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/100600Z-110600ZOCT2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.9N 132.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 125.9E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 100133Z ASCAT-C PASS DEPICT IMPROVING
CONSOLIDATION AS INDICATED BY A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, FLARING
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, AND 20-25KT EASTERLY
CONVERGENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION AS DEPICTED BY
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS
INDICATE A WESTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT IN THE PHILIPPINE
SEA AND GREATER INTENSIFICATION IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.3N
143.4E, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A BROAD
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 100401Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES LIMITED, FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
WITH A DISORGANIZED, POORLY-DEFINED LLC. HOWEVER, A 100041Z ASCAT-B
IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED, DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KNOT
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, 20-25 KNOT SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT, AND 5-10 KNOT WINDS
ELSEWHERE. ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PGUM INDICATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 8 KNOTS, SLP NEAR 1005.4MB AND A NOTEWORTHY 24-
HOUR SLP DECREASE OF 2.1MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET
BY LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CONDUCIVE AT 30-31C. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

Is the activity we are seeing, a result of a more active monsoon?

Though we've yet to see a low rider forming. I wouldn't consider 97W a low rider.

[Hayabusa]

EPS 06Z

[doomhaMwx]

97W is currently being sheared by a large TUTT cell to its north. The TUTT is moving WSW and will gradually decay over the next few days, giving 97W better development chances as it approaches Luzon Strait or its vicinity. Too early to speculate on intensity though.

[mrbagyo]

HWRF

[weeniepatrol]

HWRF

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/hwrf-p_mslp_wind_98W_fh-6-126.gif

That is certainly one of the hwrf solutions of all time

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 110600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/110600Z-120600ZOCT2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110521ZOCT2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.2N 124.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 124.7E, APPROXIMATELY 331 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND SCATTEROMETRY DATA DEPICT A WELL-ROUNDED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TUCKED BENEATH THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF INTENSE BUT
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WHICH HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST FOUR HOURS. A
110112Z ASCAT METOP-C PARTIAL PASS SHOWED 30-35KT NORTHERLY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A NE SURGE EVENT, SURGING DOWN FROM THE LUZON
STRAIGHT, AND 20-25KTS WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF LUZON BEGINNING TO
WRAP TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION ARE MUCH LOWER, IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE BASED ON EARLIER
SCATTEROMETER DATA. ANALYSIS REVEALS A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
DIRECTLY OVER TOP OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), WITH SUPPORTIVELY
WARM SSTS (30-31C). MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM DRIFTING SLOW
TOWARDS THE WEST BUT REMAINING EAST OF LUZON, BLOCKED BOTH BY THE
TERRAIN OF LUZON ITSELF AND THE STRONG NE SURGE FLOW ACTING AS A
BARRIER. THE MODEL TRACKERS JUMP CIRCULATIONS AFTER ABOUT TAU 36, INTO
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA INTO A SEPARATE AND DISTINCT AREA OF VORTICITY.
THUS THE GUIDANCE IS UNRELIABLE AT THIS POINT, ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT
36 HOURS. UP TO THAT POINT THE BULK OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP BUT THEN
DEPICTS WEAKENING AND ULTIMATE DISSIPATION AFTER TAU 36 TO THE EAST OF
LUZON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 110530) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.3N 143.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 142.4E, APPROXIMATELY 143 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED BROAD CIRCULATION WITH AMPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED BUT STEADILY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF. AN 110020Z
ASCAT METOP-B PARTIAL PASS SHOWS HALF THE STORY OF 97W WITH WIND
FIELDS ON THE EASTERN EDGE RANGING FROM 20-30KTS (UNDER A CONVECTIVE
BAND) WITH LESSER FIELDS OF 10-15 KTS ON THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH
LOW (05-10 KTS) VWS, WARM 30C SSTS, AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW PROVIDED
BY AN ANTICYCLONE OVER 97W AND A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH WHICH IS
INCREASING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWING A GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

06Z ensemble

[ElectricStorm]

Not a fan of that SW dive shown by several of those model tracks. Could be a dangerous system...

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

The models show an very similar track to MERANTI in 2016.
Next name is Sonca.

Well I could believe an intense storm at that latitude if we're in September.

[Hayabusa]

06Z EPS

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 130600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 130600.
WARNING VALID 140600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA AT 19N 132E WNW SLOWLY.

[Hayabusa]

WTPN21 PGTW 140600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.5N 129.4E TO 19.5N 123.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.5N 129.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
20.1N 130.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 129.1E, APPROXIMATELY 428 NM EAST
OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 140030Z ASCAT-B IMAGE REFLECTS A
SWATH OF 20-25KT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITION ARE FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VWS, AND WARM (29-30C) SST.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT 97W WILL CONTINUE DEEPENING AS IT
TRACKS WEST THROUGH THE LUZON STRAIT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150600Z.
//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

WTPQ52 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 19.9N 128.6E POOR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 151200UTC 19.0N 124.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 161200UTC 19.9N 120.6E 130NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 171200UTC 19.6N 118.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 181200UTC 18.0N 116.1E 280NM 70%
MOVE SW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
120HF 191200UTC 16.7N 113.2E 390NM 70%
MOVE WSW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =