WPAC: INVEST 98W

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Hayabusa
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WPAC: INVEST 98W

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Oct 08, 2022 12:43 am

98W INVEST 221008 0000 16.0N 134.0E WPAC 15 0

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Last edited by Hayabusa on Wed Oct 12, 2022 9:51 am, edited 2 times in total.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Hayabusa
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#2 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Oct 08, 2022 5:47 am

JMA LPA. Should watch out for sudden breakout it could be a sleeper.
WWJP27 RJTD 080600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 080600.
WARNING VALID 090600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 15N 136E WEST SLOWLY.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#3 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Oct 09, 2022 4:58 am

ABPW10 PGTW 090600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/090600Z-100600ZOCT2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.9N
132.1E, APPROXIMATELY 645 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 090448Z ATMS 88.2GHZ PASS DEPICT A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A POORLY DEFINED CENTER, WITH
PERSISTENT INTENSE CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK DUE TO
STRONG EASTERLY CONVERGENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION AS DEPICTED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD TRACK WITH SLOW
DEVELOPMENT IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND GREATER INTENSIFICATION IN THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Hayabusa
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#4 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Oct 10, 2022 3:50 am

ABPW10 PGTW 100600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/100600Z-110600ZOCT2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.9N 132.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 125.9E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 100133Z ASCAT-C PASS DEPICT IMPROVING
CONSOLIDATION AS INDICATED BY A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, FLARING
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, AND 20-25KT EASTERLY
CONVERGENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION AS DEPICTED BY
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS
INDICATE A WESTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT IN THE PHILIPPINE
SEA AND GREATER INTENSIFICATION IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.3N
143.4E, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A BROAD
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 100401Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES LIMITED, FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
WITH A DISORGANIZED, POORLY-DEFINED LLC. HOWEVER, A 100041Z ASCAT-B
IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED, DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KNOT
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, 20-25 KNOT SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT, AND 5-10 KNOT WINDS
ELSEWHERE. ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PGUM INDICATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 8 KNOTS, SLP NEAR 1005.4MB AND A NOTEWORTHY 24-
HOUR SLP DECREASE OF 2.1MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET
BY LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CONDUCIVE AT 30-31C. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Hayabusa
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 98W

#5 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Oct 10, 2022 9:15 pm

JMA TD
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Hayabusa
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 98W

#6 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Oct 10, 2022 9:25 pm

WWJP27 ‎RJTD ‎110000
WARNING ‎AND ‎SUMMARY ‎110000.
WARNING ‎VALID ‎120000.
WARNING ‎IS ‎UPDATED ‎EVERY ‎6 ‎HOURS.
TROPICAL ‎DEPRESSION ‎1006 ‎HPA ‎AT ‎16N ‎125E ‎WEST ‎SLOWLY.
LOW ‎PRESSURE ‎AREA ‎1006 ‎HPA ‎NEAR ‎14N ‎140E ‎ALMOST ‎STATIONARY.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Hayabusa
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 98W

#7 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Oct 11, 2022 12:11 am

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PGTW 110530
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 245 NM RADIUS OF 16.0N 124.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 101100Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 124.7E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 120530Z.
//
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically


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