WPAC: Tropical Depression 21W

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Subtrop
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WPAC: Tropical Depression 21W

#1 Postby Subtrop » Mon Oct 10, 2022 6:46 pm

99W INVEST 221011 0000 14.0N 154.0E WPAC 15 0
Last edited by Subtrop on Wed Oct 12, 2022 8:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Hayabusa
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#2 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Oct 11, 2022 11:21 pm

Already medium
ABPW10 PGTW 120400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/120400Z-120600ZOCT2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.0N 124.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 125.5E, APPROXIMATELY 268 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF INTENSE BUT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY OVER TOP OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (10-
15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WITH SUPPORTIVELY WARM (30-31C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM
DRIFTING SLOW TOWARDS THE WEST BUT REMAINING EAST OF LUZON, BLOCKED
BOTH BY THE TERRAIN OF LUZON ITSELF AND THE STRONG NE SURGE FLOW
ACTING AS A BARRIER. THE MODEL TRACKERS JUMP CIRCULATIONS AFTER ABOUT
TAU 24, INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA INTO A SEPARATE AND DISTINCT AREA OF
VORTICITY. THUS THE GUIDANCE IS UNRELIABLE AT THIS POINT, ESPECIALLY
BEYOND ABOUT 36 HOURS. UP TO THAT POINT THE BULK OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP BUT THEN DEPICTS WEAKENING AND ULTIMATE DISSIPATION AFTER TAU
36 TO THE EAST OF LUZON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A
(WTPN21 PGTW 110530) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.1N 142.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 142.0E, APPROXIMATELY 193 NM
NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN OBSCURED BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH MOST OF
THE CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AN 111220Z ASCAT
METOP-C PASS SHOWS THAT THE LLC IS BROAD AND ELONGATED WITH THE
HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY RANGING FROM 15-20 KTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW (05-10
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS), AND DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE
ON A SLOW NORTH NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWING A
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.5N 118.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR N E, APPROXIMATELY NM NORTH OF
. AN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED
CIRCULATION WITH SCATTERED FLARING CONVECTION. AN 111309Z ASCAT
METOP-B BULLSEYE PASS SHOWS 90W BROAD ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH A
STRONG WIND FIELD IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT RANGING FROM 25-30 KTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON INVEST 90W RAPIDLY DEVELOPING WITHIN THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA AND TRACKING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS VIETNAM IN THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT TO KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
(4) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.0N
151.3E, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM WEST OF SAIPAN, NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 120230Z
HIMAWARI-8 INFARED IMAGE DEPICT A FULLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH BUILDING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
FURTHERMORE, A 112358Z ASCAT METOP-B IMAGE SHOWS A DEFIND LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATED 99W IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS),
FAIR EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL TRACK NORTH-
NORTHEAST AND GENERALLY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(5) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED MEDIUM AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(4).//
NNNN
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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xtyphooncyclonex
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#3 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Wed Oct 12, 2022 12:27 am

Given its location and pace... this got potential
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#4 Postby Hurricane2022 » Wed Oct 12, 2022 12:33 am

The models show an very similar track to MERANTI in 2016.
Next name is Sonca.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#5 Postby doomhaMwx » Wed Oct 12, 2022 12:44 am

Hurricane2022 wrote:The models show an very similar track to MERANTI in 2016.
Next name is Sonca.

That's actually Invest 97W to the west of this that you're talking about.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 21W

#6 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Oct 12, 2022 8:13 am

renumbered

TWENTYONE 20221012 1200 15.2 151.3 W TD 25 1004
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 21W

#7 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Oct 12, 2022 10:34 am

First JTWC forecast
Image
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